INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND FOR WATER IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: The income and proce elasticity of demand for domestic water is estimated for Penang Island, Malaysia. A cross-sectional analysis of a random sample of 1400 households indicated an income-elasticity of zero for low-income families (per capita income less than US$300) and an elasticity of 0.2-0.4 for higher-income families. A time-series analysis of a subsample of individuals of varying income levels suggests a short-run price elasticity of -0.1 to -0.2. The implications of these results for demand forecasting are discussed.     

The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.     

“一带一路”沿线国家粮食消费时空格局

“一带一路”沿线国家是世界重要粮食生产—消费区,开展该区域粮食安全研究具有重要意义。聚焦粮食消费,剖析沿线国家1995—2017年粮食消费时空格局特征,揭示影响因素。结果表明：（1）1995—2017年,粮食消费数量逐渐增长,总量占世界比例介于55%~59%,人均消费量增至367 kg,为世界水平的95%。（2）1995—2017年,其他用粮和工业用粮高速增长,饲料和口粮快速增长,损耗和种子用粮缓慢增长,形成“口粮为主、饲料为辅”的消费结构,处于粮食消费初级阶段。（3）消费总量空间差异大而人均消费差异小,中东欧国家消费水平高,人口大国、岛屿小国、粮食生产条件欠佳国家消费水平较低。（4）各类用途粮食人均消费量空间差异不大,饲料总量空间差异最大且逐渐增大,近半数国家仍以口粮为主,约25%的国家完成了向相对均衡型转变的消费结构升级。（5）人口数量和消费水平累积贡献率约为43%和57%,中亚、东南亚、南亚多数国家受消费、人口共同影响,西亚及中东国家多受人口影响,中东欧内部差异大。口粮、饲料累积贡献量占比约为46%和34%,南亚、东南亚国家多受口粮影响,中蒙俄、中亚国家多受饲料影响,中东欧和中南半岛国家多为综合贡献型。     

经济发达地区土地资源可持续利用方式诊断——以江阴市为例

本文以江苏省江阴市为例 ,采用定性分析与定量诊断相结合的方法 ,研究了经济发达地区土地资源可持续利用水平、动态变化以及障碍因素。研究表明 :江阴市土地资源利用已进入基本可持续状态 ,但也出现了生态环境恶化、建设用地比重增大、耕地面积下降等问题。针对诊断结果 ,提出了促进土地资源可持续利用的几项对策     

乌拉盖综合经济开发区土地垦殖状况调查

1993年2月,乌拉盖综合开发区建立。2000年后引起国内多家媒体和生态学人士等的多方关注,新闻媒体说：＂开发区面积5013平方公里,大约相当于10个上海市的面积,是全国面积最大的开发区,开发10多年后不仅难见经济效益,而且造成草原生态破坏,开发面积大得吓人、经济总量小得可怜、生态安全遭遇挑战＂。2008年自治区生态环境监测站对此事进行了调查。调查结果显示：5013平方公里是乌拉盖综合经济开发区行政区面积,实际开发面积没有那么大。草原生态破坏程度比较严重。     

亚太国家CDM项目国家主管部门运行管理现状及发展建议

通过对比目前亚太地区的7个主要发展中国家中国、缅甸、印度、印度尼西亚、老挝、菲律宾和泰国的CDM项目批准数量及领域（包括DNA和EB）、DNA的组织结构、审批流程和审批原则,分析其异同及存在的主要问题,并提出相关的建议,以便亚太国家能够相互学习先进的经验,更好的促进亚太地区的CDM项目开展。     

美、日土壤污染防治法律度对中国土壤立法的启示

目前中国土壤污染问题日趋严重。尽管中国现行的法律体系存在一些有关土壤污染防治的规定,但仍存在一定的局限性,中国目前还没有专门的《土污染防治法》,从而不能为中国土壤污染的防治工作提供有力地法律支撑和法律保障。本文在分析美国、日本有关土壤污染防治立法的基础上,就中国土壤污染防治立法提出了几点建议。     

Impact of climatic shocks on child human capital: evidence from young lives data

This study attempts to assess the impact of two different climatic shocks, drought and excessive rainfall/flood, as perceived by households on child human capital across four countries: Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam – countries with diverse socio-economic backgrounds. Human capital, in this context, subsumes both child learning and health outcomes. The data source is the Young Lives Study and cross-sectional household data on the older cohort of children (between 14 and 16 years of age) are utilized, for the year 2009. The enrolment rate, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, Cloze test and Math test scores are used as proxies for child learning outcomes. The health outcome variables being studied are the WHO-defined Body Mass Index z-scores and Height for Age z-scores. The overall objective is to study heterogeneity in responses to shock in terms of the development of human capital across the set of countries considered. Additionally, the study elaborates on the role of institutional help, during crisis, and the role of household characteristics in buffering these climatic shocks.     

Insurance and flood risk reduction in Ghana: do insurers penalise homeowners who take precautionary measures?

Today, many advocate insurance as a tool for coping with natural disasters. Beyond providing prompt financial relief to victims of disasters, insurance can also incentivise individuals to invest in preventive measures if insurers reward such efforts with reduced premiums. However, insurers might be unable to reward investments in precautionary measures with lower premiums if they are ill-informed about individual-level risks. Here, we explore how Ghanaian home insurers respond to investments in flood risk reduction by asking them to quote premiums for four identical buildings; two had investments in flood risk reduction, while the other two had none. We find that insurers did not reward investments in risk reduction, with some charging higher premiums for elevated buildings, suggesting they have interpreted such preventive measures as a sign of high flood risk. This failure to reward investments in precautionary measures may discourage insured homeowners from investing in risk reduction.     

基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球重要的人口集聚区。以人粮关系为主线,从全域到国别研究了1995—2017年沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局。结果表明：研究期内,（1）沿线国家耕地总量与人均耕地量分别降至6.96×10⁸hm²和2.23亩/人,分别约为全球水平的50%和80%,约80%的国家人均耕地在下降;（2）承载力增至45.95亿人,近90%的国家在提高,但西亚及中东多数国家在下降;（3）地均承载力增至90人/km²水平,约为全球水平的1.5倍,孟加拉国、匈牙利、越南超300人/km²;（4）人粮关系从超载转向临界超载,粮食盈余国家增多,主要为耕地面积广的产粮大国。半数国家土地仍超载,多为气候干旱区与岛屿国家。研究有助于深化与沿线国家的粮食安全合作和提高项目建设布局的科学性。