碳中和背景下金砖国家气候政策、能源结构与碳排放的比较

作为新兴发展中国家的代表,金砖五国在碳中和背景下提出了各自的气候变化政策与碳减排目标。该研究系统梳理金砖国家近半个世纪内的应对气候变化战略的政策演变,并分析金砖国家在气候变化领域具有代表性的政策。该研究对金砖国家各自能源结构和分能源分行业部门的碳排放情况进行了分析,研究发现金砖国家能源结构各有特点但存在共性,随着时间的推移,金砖国家的能源结构逐渐多样化,非化石能源种类增多,但除巴西外的金砖国家化石能源占比仍较大,减排压力较大。基于目前各国能源结构和碳排放特点,该研究采用GAINS模型预测了金砖国家在各自背景下实现碳中和目标的路径和未来预期并对金砖国家经济社会发展现状和未来需求提出了建议,主要包括加强法律法规建设,能源和碳管理领域的科技合作,碳减排核心技术的合作,以及完善金砖合作机制,拓展全方位合作等方式助力金砖国家碳中和目标实现。     

Role of Bio-Energy Plantations for Carbon-Dioxide Mitigation with Special Reference to India

Fuelwood plays an important role in the rural economy of the developing countries of Asia and Africa. Optimizing energy fixation in forest trees through high density energy plantations (HDEP), gasification of wood, and conversion of forest tree biomass, are some of the potential areas whereby additional research and development input for efficient management of atmospheric carbon in our energy system can be incorporated. For example, the photosynthetic efficiency of forest trees is rarely above 0.5%, which on the basis of theoretical considerations can be increased by up to 6.6%. Thus there is an ample scope to improve the efficiency up to 1%, which amounts to doubling of the productivity of the forests. Recent policy changes and experiences with wood-based bio-energy programmes in several countries indicate that woodfuels may become increasingly attractive as industrial energy sources. Use of biodiesel and the formulation of a project for undertaking 13.4 million ha of Jatropha plantations in India highlight the seriousness with which the Government of India is promoting carbon neutral energy plantations. The cost of establishment of plantations primarily for fuel production and its conversion to energy are major deterrents in this pursuit. Some of the issues in developing countries, like low productivity on marginal lands, degraded forest lands, and unorganized units for biomass energy conversion, result in cost escalation as compared to other energy sources. This paper revisits the scope for raising energy plantations, a comparison of the direct and indirect mitigation potential uses of plantations as an adaptation strategy through reforestation and afforestation projects for climate change mitigation and socio-economic issues to make this venture feasible in developing countries.     

A LOW COST DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR SMALL FARMERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: In areas where water is scarce, drip irrigation provides the most efficient way to conserve irrigation water, but its cost of £1000 an acre is prohibitive for most small farmers in developing countries. The cost was reduced by 90 percent by (1) making dripper lines moveable, so that each line reaches ten rows instead of one; (2) replacing 25-cent emitters with simple 0.70 mm holes punched by a heated needle; and (3) using £3.00 off-the-shelf 20 liter containers with cloth filters in place of expensive filter systems. This reduced the cost of a half-acre system to £50. The low cost system was field tested in the hill areas of Nepal, and in mulberry cultivation in Andhra Pradesh, India. Uniformity of flow from emitters was 73–84 percent. Small farmers reported that the low cost trickle irrigation system cut labor requirements in half, and doubled the area irrigated by the same amount of water. The low cost drip system is likely to be widely adopted by small farmers in semi-arid and hilly regions.     

INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND FOR WATER IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: The income and proce elasticity of demand for domestic water is estimated for Penang Island, Malaysia. A cross-sectional analysis of a random sample of 1400 households indicated an income-elasticity of zero for low-income families (per capita income less than US$300) and an elasticity of 0.2-0.4 for higher-income families. A time-series analysis of a subsample of individuals of varying income levels suggests a short-run price elasticity of -0.1 to -0.2. The implications of these results for demand forecasting are discussed.     

Sources of Deforestation in Tropical Developing Countries

/ Key causes of tropical deforestation are investigated using cross-sectional data for 90 developing countries for the period 1981-1990. Regression results reveal that deforestation is associated with both development and scarcity. Deforestation accelerates with expanding infrastructure, trade, debt, investment in the human capital base, and resource-based economic expansion. On the other hand, absolute and relative scarcities-manifested by growing population pressures, food and land shortages, fuelwood dependency, and inequalities in access to land-are also key factors explaining forest loss. Thus, results point to a fundamental environmental conundrum: Development is required if countries are to alleviate scarcity-driven forms of forest exploitation but is itself a major cause of deforestation. Can countries balance development goals with forest protection? Setting aside the issue of its practical realization, the paper concludes that forest sustainable development cannot be achieved by implementing simple technical improvements in land-use practices alone. Securing the foundations for the sustainability of the forest base will require that countries address the underlying social processes driving tropical forest loss as well.KEY WORDS: Tropical deforestation; Developing countries; Rural land-use practices; Development; Scarcity.     

The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.     

贫困地区旅游开发的土地利用--以安徽舒城县百丈岩旅游区为例

通过对贫困地区旅游开发过程中土地利用变化的分析,提出了土地利用变化的驱动力和评价原则,并根据旅游地生命周期理论,对未来土地利用的趋势和方向进行了分析,同时指出在开发旅游时应注意的问题.以安徽省舒城县百丈岩旅游区为例,在分析旅游开发可行性的基础上提出了本区的旅游发展战略,最后分析了旅游开发对土地利用结构变化的影响.     

主要发达国家职业安全培训与社会保障体系的构成对构建我国职业安全培训体系的启迪

美、日及西欧一些发达国家,把安全培训教育提到了十分重要的地位.经过半个世纪不断完善,先后都建立了一整套具有各自特点的安全培训体系.对构建我国职业安全培训体系会有很多借鉴和启示.