Integrating economic landscape valuation into Mediterranean territorial planning

Recent and rapid landscape changes have occurred over large areas in Mediterranean Basin. Wildfires and human activities are the most important disturbances at landscape-level due to their ecological and socio-economic impacts. The increasing demand which society places on the forest landscapes has led us to develop a tool to identify the economic landscape value around natural protected areas. Our research focused on the integration of social, ecological and economic components of landscape management based on stated social preferences and contingent valuation method (CVM). Landscape value research has been motivated by the need to assist land use planning and environmental management.Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have provided new opportunities to spatially distributed modeling of landscape quality. Correlations were found between the representativeness of the landscape and its sense of belonging, and the contingent rating. Landscape with intensive agricultural practices and mining areas were the least preferred landscapes. There was a notable variation in the economic landscape value attributed to the study area based on the considered CVM scenario, ranging from 1,253,075.1 Euros to 3,650,827.8 Euros. We added the geospatial allocation of willingness to pay according to five landscape quality categories. Our approach could be used to identify priority areas for conservation based on maximizing landscape value, and would be useful in detecting interesting or conflict areas associated with new management and planning alternatives. In this sense, this approach offers managers to seek territorial management strategies to increase economic efficiency in the allocation of resources.     

基于随机模拟的地下水污染物最优水力截获量

水力截获技术是净化或抑制地下水污染最为广泛使用的一种方法，而该技术实施过程中，如何确定最优水力截获量是其需要重点解决的关键问题.本文针对传统确定性方法计算最优水力截获量不合理的问题，从水文地质参数的随机性出发，应用基于随机理论的蒙特卡罗方法，通过实例来研究渗透系数的空间变异性对地下水污染物水力截获系统的影响，并寻求估算最优水力截获量的新方法.通过研究表明：基于确定性方法计算出最优水力截获量为110m³/d时恰好能完全截获污染区的污染物；应用随机模拟研究含水层渗透系数的空间变异性对水力截获系统的影响，发现当以传统确定性方法所计算的最优水力截获量（110m³/d）抽水时，并不能总是完全截获地下水污染物，其面临的稳定平均风险率高达24%；充分考虑了含水层渗透系数空间变异的Monte Carlo方法较以往传统确定性方法更为可靠，为此本文提出利用随机方法从截获系统可接受风险角度确定最优截获量的新思路.