人工增雨（雪）效果评估方法探索

人工增雨（雪）常用的评估方法为统计检验和物理检验,统计检验需要大量试验样本,且随机化试验在我国难以实现,大量样本无从获得。物理检验目前主要是雷达观测演变状况和飞机直接观测云内微物理参数,由于技术和能力有限,这些方法都难以实现。为了在人工影响天气作业后尽快得出评估结果供政府及环境保护等部门参考,利用雨滴谱记录数据对一次人工增雪作业后的效果进行了评估,发现这些数据在没有常规降雪记录情况下具有一定的参考价值。从评估结果看,人工增雪作业后,降水强度有明显增大的趋势。     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅰ.科技进步增产理论、模型及其应用

粮食增产趋势及增产原因是国家制定宏观农业政策和措施的依据。科技进步增产理论是指：气候是波动的,科技是持续进步的,它是粮食多年持续增产的主要驱动力;科技进步增产预测模型是多年平均单产移动的回归方程。全国和东北三省粮食增产潜力案例分析结果表明：科技进步单产加速时间最早的是辽宁省,最晚的是黑龙江省;与全国相比,吉林省和辽宁省科技进步贡献率高于全国平均水平,黑龙江省低于全国平均水平,吉林省最高。本文初步得出以下结论：科技进步增产理论科学、模型实用、预测结果准确。     

基于网络组织视角的粮食产业化模式与优化路径

在全球粮食安全状况严峻以及中国人多地少的形势下,探讨粮食的产业化发展具有重要意义。从网络组织视角出发,梳理了中国粮食产业化模式并提出优化路径。研究表明：粮食产业化发展是一个网络化的成长过程。基于网络主体控制与参与网络的能力、融资形式以及立足或服务的空间尺度,可以将粮食产业化模式划分为“国家调控跨国公司组织模式”“地方主导龙头企业带动模式”“政府主导社会多元主体参与模式”和“市场主导私营企业推动模式”这四类主要模式,分别对应介于市场组织与等级制组织之间的全球—区域—本地网络组织,并以跨国公司、本地龙头企业、产业化联合体、产业园区、产业集群等产业化组织形式呈现。进一步建议从提升网络主体开始,通过优化网络结构、强化网络载体、完善网络治理来指导粮食产业化的高质量发展。     

The Effect of Grain Size and Element Concentration in Identifying Contaminant Sources

The distribution of metal contaminants between different size fractions of marine sediments is well known. However, the use of size normalization techniques may alter the ability or usefulness in identifying potential sources in complex environments. In a reassessment of metal data from the shelf area of Sydney, Australia, the mud and sand fractions were investigated separately by PCA and PLS methodologies. The analyses were able to produce clear distinctions between industrial/urban sources when based on a suite of metals rather than individual (single-element) concentrations. Signature analysis by PLS with copper, lead, zinc, manganese, chromium, cobalt, nickel, and cadmium demonstrated the dispersion of the fine-grained contaminated material to the south in the East Australian Current. However, due to the commonality between many of the metals, a subset of four metals was used to define the signature. This significantly improved separation, showing clear plumes extending ～30 km from the source rivers.     

厌氧微网反应器处理生活污水膜污染物研究

采用涤纶网加工的微网膜组件与厌氧反应器结合构成厌氧微网生物反应器用于处理城市生活污水。在不同反应器形式和水力停留时间条件下反应器稳定运行了144 d。研究结果表明完全搅拌反应器在膜通量12 L/(m2.h)条件下跨膜压差变化较小,整体出水水质高于无搅拌式反应器。通过膜面SS含量测定、粒径和三维荧光光谱分析等方法对膜面污染物进行了系统分析。无搅拌式AnFBR随着停留时间的延长,膜面污染物的SS减少,粒径减小;完全搅拌式AnFBR膜面污染物的SS最少,粒径最小。三位荧光分析表明SMP主要有2个类蛋白质荧光峰A和B,中心位置(Ex/Em)分别位于230~235/335~350 nm及280~290/330~355 nm,EPS样品中除了峰A和峰B外还有2个峰,峰C位置(Ex/Em)在340~350/435~445 nm,与类富里酸物质有关,峰D位于420~440/465~515 nm,与类腐殖酸物质有关。     

基于随机森林的耕地利用效率测度模型构建及其应用

构建合适的量化分析模型是科学把握耕地利用状况及利用效率的基础性工作,可为制定合理有效的耕地资源管控政策,实现耕地利用与生态环境的协调发展提供决策依据。为了更准确地反映耕地利用系统的复杂性、动态性及差异性等特征,鉴于随机森林的基本思想,运用随机抽样Bootstrap法在合理构建分类树的基础上,构造了耕地利用效率测度的RF模型,进而以中国粮食主产区172个城市为例训练该模型并将其运用至2003-2015年的耕地利用效率测度中,同时将BP神经网络和熵权法作为对比验证其一致性、代表性和优越性。结果表明：（1）耕地利用效率测度的RF模型不受量纲限制,运行所需参数少,运算过程简化,能够较为精确地模拟各评价指标间的复杂联系,科学量化各评价指标对耕地利用效率的贡献。（2）对同一空间单元的效率值而言,RF>BPNN>EW,RF与BPNN所得效率值的总体分布格局相似,且均与EW的测度结果存在较大差异。（3）从评价结果与现实的匹配度和精度表征参数来看,RF的测度结果与自然和社会经济发展等客观事实更相符,具有较高的适用性与可靠性。同时,与其余两种常用模型相比,RF能够降低计算复杂度,提高训练效率,其测度结果的相关系数R为0.8685,M_RPD为2.3533,且具有最小M_MSE0.0174和M_MAE0.0211,更适用于复杂非线性特征的耕地利用效率研究。     

内蒙古河套灌区盐碱土壤N2O排放特征

选择内蒙古河套灌区强度盐碱土壤S₁[电导率（EC）2.60dS/m]和轻度盐碱土壤S₂[电导率（EC） 0.74dS/m]为研究对象,2014~2016年,利用静态箱法3年野外原位观测试验,研究盐碱土壤氧化亚氮（N₂O）排放通量.结果表明：2种不同盐碱程度土壤N₂O排放每年均存在显著差异,轻度盐碱土壤N₂O累积排放量低;随EC升高,土壤盐碱程度加重,土壤N₂O累积排放量升高.2014~2016年作物生长季（4~11月）轻度盐碱土壤N₂O累积排放量分别为180.6,167.6,118.2mg/m²;强度盐碱土壤N₂O累积排放量比轻度盐碱土壤分别增加19%、26%和45%,修复盐碱土壤成为减缓盐碱土壤N₂O累积排放的重要农艺措施.     

Kinetic and thermodynamic studies on partitioning of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) between aqueous solution and modeled individual soil particle grain sizes

The significance of soil mineral properties and secondary environmental conditions such as pH, temperature, ionic strength and time in the partitioning of eight selected polychlorinated biphenyl(PCB) congeners between aqueous solution and soil particles with different grain sizes was studied. The mineral properties of a model soil sample were determined, and Brunauer–Emmett–Teller(BET) adsorption–desorption isotherms were employed to observe the surface characteristics of the individual modeled soil particles.Batch adsorption experiments were conducted to determine the sorption of PCBs onto soil particles of different sizes. The results revealed that the sorption of PCB congeners onto the soil was dependent on the amount of soil organic matter, surface area, and pore size distribution of the various individual soil particles. Low pH favored the sorption of PCBs,with maximum sorption occurring between pH 6.5 and 7.5 with an equilibration period of 8 hr.Changes in the ionic strength were found to be less significant. Low temperature favored the sorption of PCBs onto the soil compared to high temperatures. Thermodynamic studies showed that the partition coefficient(K_d) decreased with increasing temperature, and negative and low values of ΔH° indicated an exothermic physisorption process. The data generated is critical and will help in further understanding remediation and cleanup strategies for polluted water.     

Application of interface material and effects of oxygen gradient on the performance of single-chamber sediment microbial fuel cells (SSMFCs)

Single-chamber sediment microbial fuel cells(SSMFCs) have received considerable attention nowadays because of their unique dual-functionality of power generation and enhancement of wastewater treatment performance. Thus, scaling up or upgrading SSMFCs for enhanced and efficient performance is a highly crucial task. Therefore, in order to achieve this goal, an innovative physical technique of using interface layers with four different pore sizes embedded in the middle of SSMFCs was utilized in this study.Experimental results showed that the performance of SSMFCs employing an interface layer was improved regardless of the pore size of the interface material, compared to those without such layers. The use of an interface layer resulted in a positive and significant effect on the performance of SSMFCs because of the effective prevention of oxygen diffusion from the cathode to the anode. Nevertheless, when a smaller pore size interface was utilized, better power performance and COD degradation were observed. A maximum power density of 0.032 mW/m~2 and COD degradation of 47.3% were obtained in the case of an interface pore size of 0.28 μm. The findings in this study are of significance to promote the future practical application of SSMFCs in wastewater treatment plants.     

气候变化和人类活动对东部沿海地区NDVI变化的影响分析

植被是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,特别是在人类活动密集地区,良好的植被覆盖对于维持区域生态环境稳定、增进居民生活福祉和促进社会经济可持续发展意义重大.基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)、气温、降水和太阳辐射数据,采用趋势分析、偏相关分析和残差分析等方法,探究了1982～2019年中国东部沿海地区NDVI时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系,评估了气候因素和人类活动等非气候因素对NDVI变化的影响.结果表明：(1)1982～2019年研究区NDVI变化趋势具有明显区域性、阶段性和季节性差异,就区域平均而言,2000年以前(第一阶段)的生长季NDVI比2001年以后(第二阶段)增加更快,而两阶段春季NDVI增加速率均为各季节最快;(2)同一阶段NDVI与各气候因子的关系在不同季节存在差异,而同一季节NDVI的主要气候控制因子在不同阶段也不一致,并且NDVI与气候因子的关系具有很大空间差异.总体上,1982～2019年研究区生长季NDVI的增加与气温的持续上升关系紧密,第二阶段降水和太阳辐射的增加也产生了积极作用;(3)相比于人类活动等非气候因素的影响,气候变化对近38年来研究区生长季NDVI变化的...