采空区不同瓦斯抽采方法与自燃合理平衡的数值模拟

为了研究和解决西铭矿在生产中由于瓦斯抽采方法的不同可能引起采空区自燃以及瓦斯爆炸等重大安全隐患问题,构建了高位巷、埋管和高低位钻孔瓦斯抽采方法下的非均质多孔介质三维模型。利用非线性渗流定律、通用控制方程和自定义的函数进行解算,结果表明:高位巷、高低位钻孔抽采流量与抽采氧气浓度近似呈正比函数关系,埋管抽采流量与氧化带宽度呈指数函数关系;高位巷、高低位钻孔随着抽采流量的增加抽采效率反而降低,抽采总量增加,埋管抽采位置在距工作面35m处、抽采流量为20m3/min能很好解决上隅角瓦斯超限问题。根据模拟结论:采用立体联合瓦斯抽采方法既能满足抽采要求又能有效控制采空区自燃现象。     

典型结构走廊火灾烟气流场的数值模拟研究

选取条形、L形、T形和环形走廊4种典型建筑结构为研究对象,使用火灾模拟软件FDS对4种典型结构的走廊发生火灾时的烟气流动规律进行了分析。初步得出建筑结构对于火灾烟气的流动和温度分布的影响:对于有封闭转角处的L形和环形走廊,转角处受到建筑封闭结构的阻碍和反浮力作用,热烟气易积聚;而无论何种形式的走廊,都会由于壁面限制和反浮力作用造成走廊末端热烟气的积聚;T形走廊交叉口处流通性较好,相对安全;这些容易造成烟气积聚的走廊转角和走廊末端的温度也会有所上升,而现在很多连接走廊的疏散楼梯都设置在走廊两端,反而不利于人员疏散。因此这些地方应引起重视,加强防火排烟措施。     

基于加权线性回归模型组的湖北省工矿事故死亡人数分析预测

以2005-2014年湖北省工矿企业事故死亡人数为基础,通过对时间序列图分析可知,该省工矿企业事故具有明显的周期性、季节性。另外,依据安全系统特征属性,系统近期的状况相对远期的状况对未来预测更具有影响力。因此,各个季节数据的权重应有所不同。综合考虑以上两种情况,提出对4个季节建立不同的线性加权线性回归模型,并进行组合,形成加权线性回归模型组,进而对2015-2016年各个季度进行预测。最后,与传统的时间序列分析方法比较可知,加权线性回归模型组的方法建立的模型显著性、拟合度更高,并且模型的可读性更强、更简单。     

基于不同时段人群特征的地铁疏散仿真研究

针对地铁不同运行时段人群特征对疏散的影响,对每小时进入地铁站人数进行观测,将地铁运行时段分为高峰时段、平峰时段与低峰时段,并对各时段某一时刻列车到站数量进行记录。对不同运行时段的年龄、携带行李情况、速度等人群特征进行观测记录,根据各时段人群特征对地铁站进行Pathfinder疏散仿真建模。从疏散用时、拥堵点、人员疏散路径、出口利用率等方面对各运行时段人员疏散仿真结果进行分析,得到高峰时段两列列车同时到站时,疏散拥堵现象明显,且两列列车到站与1列车到站两种情况下的人员疏散存在一定差异;平峰与低峰时段两列列车同时到站疏散拥堵点明显,出口利用率情况较为一致。最后,对提高地铁疏散效率提出几点建议措施:注重时段差异性的地铁疏散管理;增强拥堵点的疏散引导;缩短列车行车间隔。     

不同模式下农地整治前后土地利用效率的比较研究

论文在农户问卷调查数据的基础上,运用超效率DEA模型测算不同模式的农地整治项目区整治前后的土地利用效率以及同期未整治区土地利用效率,并采用双重差分计量模型研究了传统政府主导模式下农地整治项目区与未整治区土地利用效率的差异、农户主导模式与传统政府主导模式下农地整治项目区土地利用效率差异。研究结果表明:农地整治后,农户主导模式的农地整治项目区户均土地利用效率提高0.121 2,传统政府主导模式的农地整治项目区户均土地利用效率提高0.080 6,而同期未整治区户均土地利用效率提高0.040 1,反映出传统政府主导模式的农地整治可促进土地利用效率的提高,而农户主导模式的农地整治项目对土地利用效率的提升作用更大;农地整治对土地利用效率、农业总产值、灌溉资本投入影响显著,农户有效参与对土地利用效率、农业总产值影响显著;户主受教育程度、农业收入比例、旱涝保收耕地比例及承包地面积等对土地利用效率影响显著。据此,论文提出了相应的政策建议,为政府开展农地整治项目实施模式的创新提供决策参考。     

太湖不同营养水平湖区汞的形态和分布特征

为研究富营养化对太湖汞形态分布特征的影响,于2011年水华暴发期,在太湖不同营养水平湖区(竺山湾、贡湖湾及南太湖)采集水样,测定了水体中THg(总汞)、DHg(溶解态总汞)、RHg(活性汞)、TMeHg(总甲基汞)、DMeHg(溶解态甲基汞)的质量浓度及其分布特征. 结果表明,太湖不同营养水平湖区水体中ρ(THg)和ρ(DHg)无显著差异,ρ(THg)为4.67~12.15 ng/L,ρ(DHg)为2.27~10.36 ng/L. 太湖水体中ρ(RHg)平均值为0.79 ng/L,藻类的生长对水体中ρ(RHg)的分布有显著影响,水体营养水平越高,ρ(RHg)越低. 水体中ρ(TMeHg)和ρ(DMeHg)分别为0.10~0.27和0.09~0.23 ng/L,藻类的吸附及水体中较高的E_h(氧化还原电位)和pH抑制了汞的甲基化,但在富营养化较严重的竺山湾,受藻类生长及水华的影响,水体中ρ(TMeHg)(0.22 ng/L)仍相对较高.      

Generation time and the maximum growth rate for populations with age-specific fecundities and unknown juvenile survival

In age-classified population models where all parameters are known, the generation time and growth rate are calculated in a straightforward manner. For many populations, some parameters, such as juvenile survival, are difficult to estimate accurately. In a simplified population model where fecundity and survival are constant from the onset of breeding, it is known that generation time may be calculated given only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the population growth rate. However, the assumption of constant fecundity from the onset of breeding does not hold for many populations. An extended population model allows calculation of generation time with the additional knowledge of the ratio of age-specific fecundities compared to a maximum fecundity rate. When these relative fecundities are unknown, an ad hoc adjustment to the simplified model performs well.When the study population is in an ideal environment, the optimal generation time and maximum growth rate are linked, and both may be approximated knowing only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the relative fecundities. The maximum growth rate has important conservation implications, and calculating it correctly is therefore important. Improper use of the simplified population model to calculate the maximum growth rate, combined with a simple decision rule, leads to an average overharvest of 36%, and >60% for three of six bird species studied, compared to the full population model. By comparison, using the approximation from the extended or adjusted models results in average overharvests of only 8% (extended model) and 5% (adjusted model), and <50% for all six species (either model).     

A discrete model for estimating the development time from egg to infecting larva of Ostertagia ostertagi parametrized using a fuzzy rule-based system

Ostertagia ostertagi is a nematode, predominantly affecting cattle in the Pampean region of Argentina. A mathematical model parametrized using fuzzy rule-based systems of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kant type (FTSK) for estimating the development time from egg to infecting larval stage L3 of the gastrointestinal parasite O. ostertagi is here proposed. The estimation of development time of O. ostertagi is essential for the generation of appropriate control mechanisms, since this provides information about the time when parasites are ready to migrate to pastures. For the purpose of reflecting the natural environmental conditions, the mean daily temperature is taken as the main and only regulator of the development time. Humidity conditions are considered to be sufficient for the normal development of the larvae. Hence the individual's daily growth is a function of its length and the mean temperature recorded on the previous day. It is expressed in terms of a difference equation with fuzzy parameters, which are defined using laboratory data. Model outputs are tested against results of field experiments. Simulation results are very satisfactory, yielding a mean estimation error (MEE) of 0.64 weeks, with variance 0.34, and a determination coefficient R² = 0.74. The model clearly exhibits an inverse relationship between development time and temperature both in controlled and in field conditions. It also exhibits a very sensitive response both to the order in which the temperature sequence occurs, - reproducing the differences observed between spring and autumn - and to the amplitude of the temperature range.     

Imposed and inherent scales in cellular automata models of habitat

Both observational and modelling studies of the natural environment are characterised by their ‘grain’ and ‘extent’, the smallest and largest scales represented in time and space. These are imposed scales that should be chosen to ensure that the natural scales of the system are captured in the study. A simple cellular automata model of habitat represents only the presence or absence of vegetation, with global and local interactions described by four empirical parameters. Such a model can be formulated as a nonlinear Markov equation for the habitat probability. The equation produces inherent space and time scales that may be considered as transition scales or the scales for recovery from disturbance. However, if the resolution of the model is changed, the empirical parameters must be changed to preserve the properties of the system. Further, changes in the spatial resolution lead to different interpretations of the spatial structure. In particular, as the resolution is reduced, the apparent dominance of one habitat type over the other increases. The model provides an ability to compare both field and model investigations conducted at different resolutions in time and space.     

多时间尺度上研究中国近代气温变化规律

应用MODIS数据反演了过去10年中国气温及气温的空间分布特征,并基于气象数据重建了过去60年中国城市、郊区、农村及气象台周边地区冬季气温距平的时间序列,从多时间尺度上,详细分析了20世纪中国气温变化规律。结果发现：气象台气温记录可能受城市热岛效应影响;60年来我国气温呈震荡波动,波动小周期约为7a;从10年尺度上看,近60年来,年代际气温增加幅度最大的是20世纪90年代,21世纪初气温虽然仍处于暖期,但已经出现下降趋势。