A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LINEAR AND NONLINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS FOR WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Surface water quality data are routinely collected in river basins by state or federal agencies. The observed quality of river water generally reflects the overall quality of the ecosystem of the river basin. Advanced statistical methods are often needed to extract valuable information from the vast amount of data for developing management strategies. Among the measured water quality constituents, total phosphorus is most often the limiting nutrient in freshwater aquatic systems. Relatively low concentrations of phosphorus in surface waters may create eutrophication problems. Phosphorus is a non-conservative constituent. Its time series generally exhibits nonlinear behavior. Linear models are shown to be inadequate. This paper presents a nonlinear state-dependent model for the phosphorous data collected at DeSoto, Kansas. The nonlinear model gives significant reductions in error variance and forecasting error as compared to the best linear autoregressive model identified.     

COMPARING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX AND THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Index (PDI) is used as an indicator of drought severity, and a particular index value is often the signal to begin or discontinue elements of a drought contingency plan. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was recently developed to quantify a precipitation deficit for different time scales. It was designed to be an indicator of drought that recognizes the importance of time scales in the analysis of water availability and water use. This study compares historical time series of the PDI with time series of the corresponding SPI through spectral analysis. Results show that the spectral characteristics of the PDI vary from site to site throughout the U.S., while those of the SPI do not vary from site to site. They also show that the PDI has a complex structure with an exceptionally long memory, while the SPI is an easily interpreted, simple moving average process.     

三维电极体系中苯酚降解效率的影响因素研究

三维电极法用于处理含酚废水的影响因素研究报道较多,但并未充分在理论上阐述其影响方式及机理。采用自制的实验室小试电化学反应器对含酚自配废水进行了处理。试验结果表明:体系中苯酚降解遵循一级反应模式;通过电流效率的核算确定60min作为最佳反应时间,得到的苯酚去除率为64.3%,吨水处理能耗为14.29kW·h·t-1,实际电流效率与理论电流效率相等为0.68。对体系进水控制不同的苯酚起始质量浓度,当反应时间不变时,实际试验结果与法拉第定律一致,即电流密度与去除的污染物的量以及COD去除率与电量和进水质量浓度的比值均呈线性关系;体系中羟基自由基的产生量能够采用式[?OH]=0.1218×EC0进行计算。采用最佳反应时间t=60min、电流密度I=20A,在苯酚质量浓度为500mg·L-1时改变极板间距进行的试验结果表明电压随极板间距的增大而降低,最佳极板间距为0.21m时可获得最大去除率为78.5%,体系的启动电压为0.25V。     

发电厂附近大气气溶胶元素浓度的监测

用Ｓｔｒｅａｋｅｒ时间顺序采样器在火力发电厂附近连续收集大气气溶胶样品，这些样品在２×１．７ＭＶ串列加速器上用２．５ＭｅＶ的质子进行ＰＩＸＥ分析，得到了大气气溶胶粗，细颗粒物中２１个元素浓度及其时间的短时变化，显示了主要污染源方向的信息，结果表明，元素Ｓｉ，Ｋ，Ｚｎ和Ａｓ的浓度高于北京地区冬天的水平，Ｂｒ／Ｐｂ的比值为０．１６（ｎ＝４４），高于一般地区。     

On the behaviour of the residence time at the bottom of the mixed layer

To understand why the findings of Deleersnijder et al. [(2006), Environ Fluid Mech 6: 25–42]—the residence time in the mixed layer in not necessarily zero at the pycnocline—are consistent with those of Delhez and Deleersnijder [(2006), Ocean Dyn 56:139–150]—the residence time in a control domain vanishes at the open boundaries of this control domain—, it is necessary to consider a control domain that includes part of the pycnocline, in which the eddy diffusivity is assumed to be zero. Then, depending on the behaviour of the eddy diffusivity near the bottom of the mixed layer, the residence time may be seen to exhibit a discontinuity at the interface between the mixed layer and the pycnocline. If such a discontinuity exists, the residence time is non-zero in the former and zero in the latter. This is illustrated by analytical solutions obtained under the assumption that the eddy diffusivity is constant in the mixed layer.     

构建限制性条件下微生物群体生长模型时的问题

Logistic生长模型在表征营养限制性生长条件下微生物群体生长时,遇到了种种困难．该模型未能明确给出微生物群体生长的“延迟期”和“代时”两个重要生长动力学参数,也忽视了方程中参数“r”应为平均生长速率,且不具有内禀生长率性质等诸多生物学特点．采用E．coli ATCC31343,37℃液体摇瓶培养下获得的实验数据,证实了Logistic模型存在的上述局限性．通过对E．coli以葡萄糖和山梨醇共作碳源时,表现出的“二峰生长”曲线与用Logistic方程拟合结果的比较,表明适合度分析（goodness—fit test）不能作为模型是否适合的唯一判据．并对构建微生物群体生长模型的策略进行了讨论．图5参31     

H90/Q195板带复合工艺及结合机制的研究

研究了H90/Q195板异温轧制复合工艺，借助了金相显微镜、扫描电镜、电子探针、X-射线衍射分析了复合工艺参数对轧制复合后的复合板结合强度的影响，确定了最佳复合工艺，并对结合机制进行了探讨。     

采样时间对ANDERSEN采样器采样效果的影响

在室内用ANDERSEN生物粒子采样器进行了不同采样时间对采集空气细菌和真菌粒子浓度，粒数中值直径效果的研究，结果表明，在1－12min内，采集的空气细菌和真菌粒子浓度随采样时间的增加而减少，呈明显的负相关关系，相关系数分别为－0．903和－0．688，P值均大于0．05，另外，在采样过程中，空气真菌比细菌耐受采样空气冲击力的能力强，采样时间对空气细菌和真菌粒子的粒度分布和粒数中值直径的影响不明显。     

Time Series Analysis to Monitor and Assess Water Resources: A Moving Average Approach

An understanding of the behavior of the groundwater body and its long-term trends are essential for making any management decision in a given watershed. Geostatistical methods can effectively be used to derive the long-term trends of the groundwater body. Here an attempt has been made to find out the long-term trends of the water table fluctuations of a river basin through a time series approach. The method was found to be useful for demarcating the zones of discharge and of recharge of an aquifer. The recharge of the aquifer is attributed to the return flow from applied irrigation. In the study area, farmers mainly depend on borewells for water and water is pumped from the deep aquifer indiscriminately. The recharge of the shallow aquifer implies excessive pumping of the deep aquifer. Necessary steps have to be taken immediately at appropriate levels to control the irrational pumping of deep aquifer groundwater, which is needed as a future water source. The study emphasizes the use of geostatistics for the better management of water resources and sustainable development of the area.