灰色预测法在南宁市可持续发展趋势分析中的应用

本文运用灰色系统理论 ,建立灰色预测模型 ,对南宁市社会、经济及生态环境发展趋势进行了分析 ,并针对南宁市发展中的不合理状况 ,提出相应的调控对策。     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

钢桁架-钢筋混凝土管柱结构风参数试验研究

结构下部空旷,上部挡风墙承担的风荷载对结构下部产生较大作用。我国规范没有对该类结构及其顶部透气性A型架的风参数作具体规定。为解决工程设计中风参数取值问题,进行了刚性模型风洞试验研究,得到了不同工况下挡风墙、A型架、管柱的体型系数及挡风墙的阵风系数,分析了风机、周围建筑物、风向角对相关风参数的影响,给出了相关参数的建议值。并将试验结果与数值模拟计算结果进行了对比分析,结果表明,二者吻合较好,研究结果为工程设计提供了基础资料,可供同类工程参考。     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

区域水战略方案选优的动态组合评价模型研究

水安全危机是人类进入新世纪以来在生存及发展方面所面临的最严重挑战之一。研究科学合理的水安全战略成为区域可持续发展的重大课题。针对区域水战略问题涉及众多因素且各因素之间动态关联的特点,提出了基于水战略方案优选的兼容度极大化动态组合评价模型（CMM—DCEM）,并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全战略方案优选评价。评价结果及模型基于不确定性的敏感性分析结果证明：CMM—DCEM实现了主、客观赋权方法以及单一评价模型的融合,使用实码加速遗传算法求解目标函数,克服了传统的组合评价方法计算繁琐的不足,评价过程更加科学合理。     

面向作物病害识别的高光谱波谱库设计与开发

自20世纪70年代以来,国内外波谱数据库发展迅速,但都存在着针对性不强的缺陷,不能满足我国现阶段遥感应用的需要。该文通过以小麦条锈病为案例的高光谱波谱库的设计与开发,实现了波谱查询、影像管理、用户管理、数据管理、反演模型等功能,可供其它面向病害识别的高光谱波谱库的建立参考。     

岳阳市城市绿化树种的选择及配置模式研究

选择观赏价值高、抗逆性强、保健功能强、经济效益高同时具有丰富历史文化底蕴和地方特色的植物材料用于城市林业建设中,可显著提高城市园林绿化的科技含量和综合效益;在园林植物配置上,根据园林美学原则和功能性要求,进行混植、群植、丛植、对植和孤植等,在充分发挥树木的群体美和个体美的同时可显著提高配置模式的整体功能性．     

Evaluation of the technoeconomic feasibility of electrochemical hydrogen peroxide production for decentralized water treatment

• Gas diffusion electrode (GDE) is a suitable setup for practical water treatment. • Electrochemical H₂O₂ production is an economically competitive technology. • High current efficiency of H₂O₂ production was obtained with GDE at 5–400 mA/cm². • GDE maintained high stability for H₂O₂ production for ~1000 h. • Electro-generation of H₂O₂ enhances ibuprofen removal in an E-peroxone process. This study evaluated the feasibility of electrochemical hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) production with gas diffusion electrode (GDE) for decentralized water treatment. Carbon black-polytetrafluoroethylene GDEs were prepared and tested in a continuous flow electrochemical cell for H₂O₂ production from oxygen reduction. Results showed that because of the effective oxygen transfer in GDEs, the electrode maintained high apparent current efficiencies (ACEs,>80%) for H₂O₂ production over a wide current density range of 5–400 mA/cm², and H₂O₂ production rates as high as ~202 mg/h/cm² could be obtained. Long-term stability test showed that the GDE maintained high ACEs (>85%) and low energy consumption (<10 kWh/kg H₂O₂) for H₂O₂ production for 42 d (~1000 h). However, the ACEs then decreased to ~70% in the following 4 days because water flooding of GDE pores considerably impeded oxygen transport at the late stage of the trial. Based on an electrode lifetime of 46 days, the overall cost for H₂O₂ production was estimated to be ~0.88 $/kg H₂O₂, including an electricity cost of 0.61 $/kg and an electrode capital cost of 0.27 $/kg. With a 9 cm² GDE and 40 mA/cm² current density, ~2–4 mg/L of H₂O₂ could be produced on site for the electro-peroxone treatment of a 1.2 m³/d groundwater flow, which considerably enhanced ibuprofen abatement compared with ozonation alone (~43%–59% vs. 7%). These findings suggest that electrochemical H₂O₂ production with GDEs holds great promise for the development of compact treatment technologies for decentralized water treatment at a household and community level.     

三峡水库补水调度对东洞庭湖典型沉水植物生境适宜性的影响

沉水植物是东洞庭湖水生态修复的重要物种,水深是影响沉水植物生长的关键因子之一。为定量描述三峡水库不同补水调度方式对东洞庭湖典型沉水植物生长生境的影响,以刺苦草（Vallisneria spinulosa）为目标物种,利用物理栖息地模型建立三峡水库补水调度期间不同出库流量与东洞庭湖刺苦草生长生境加权可利用面积（WUA）的关系。结果表明：刺苦草生长生境的适宜水深为0.2~1.8 m,最适宜水深为0.5~1.0 m;三峡水库实施补水调度后,东洞庭湖刺苦草生长生境的WUA整体呈现均匀上升趋势;三峡水库补水调度期间,出库流量为5 500~10 500 m³/s时,刺苦草生长生境最适宜水深范围对应的WUA呈现先增后减趋势,在出库流量为9 500 m³/s时WUA最大（74.46 km²）,可认为刺苦草生长最适宜出库流量为8 500~10 500 m³/s。研究成果可为通过三峡水库生态调度进行东洞庭湖水生态环境恢复及保护提供参考。

     

基于二维和三维生态足迹的长三角城市群自然资本可持续性分析

城镇化和工业化进程的不断推进给城市群自然资本及其可持续利用带来较大的威胁。为明确城市群建设过程中自然资本可持续性变化特征,以长三角城市群为研究对象,采用二维和三维生态足迹评价模型,同时添加水资源账户对原模型进行改进以反映长三角地区水资源潜力与压力,研究分析了2005—2019年长三角城市群生态足迹、生态压力指数和生态协调指数变化、自然资本存量消耗和自然资本流量占用情况及其影响因素与作用机制。结果表明：1）研究期间,长三角城市群人均生态足迹和生态承载力分别为4.46和1.59 hm²/人,平均人均生态赤字为2.87 hm²/人,但万元GDP生态足迹不断下降,资源利用率不断上升;2）2005—2019年,长三角城市群生态压力指数由2.48升至3.25,生态协调指数由1.30变为1.25;3）基于改进三维生态足迹模型发现,长三角城市群资本存量利用程度越来越大,且对自然资本流量的更新起到较大抑制作用,2019年研究区自然资本存量的消耗量是资本流量占有量的2.26倍;4）影响因子分析表明,工业产值、能源消耗总量、建筑用地面积和城镇化率对生态足迹起到了正向促进作用,对自然资本的可持续性产生了较大压力。