Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

湖泊富营养化模型的研究进展

湖泊的富营养化是全球普遍关注的环境问题之一.湖泊的富营养化模型是防治、修复和治理湖泊富营养化的重要决策工具.按研究的侧重点不同,将湖泊富营养化模型分为简单回归模型、水质模型、生态模型和生态-水动力水质模型,并分别回顾了四类模型的研究进展.最后指出湖泊富营养化模型的发展趋势,强调不确定理论、3S技术、耦合模型是今后湖泊富营养化模型研究的重点,应在此基础上建立通用的模拟、预测、评价和优化模型,为湖泊富营养化管理提供科学依据.     

Fe3O4-TiO2Al吸附剂去除水中氟离子

以实验室制备的Fe3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al吸附剂处理模拟和实际含氟废水,探讨了吸附剂用量、体系pH、吸附温度和吸附时间等因素对F-吸附效果的影响。结果表明:在初始F-浓度16.1 mg/L,起始pH 8.0,吸附剂投加量5 g/L,室温(约25 ℃)下吸附15 min时,模拟和实际废水的出水F-均可达到3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al具有一定的实际应用价值。含氟水溶液初始pH对Fe3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al吸附F-性能影响较大。在pH 介于3.0~5.0 时,吸附容量较大,过高或过低都会导致吸附容量降低。Fe3O4-TiO2·nH2O·Al吸附F-的过程为放热反应,升温不利于F-的吸附。该吸附剂吸附F- 的过程为化学吸附,符合准二级动力学模型,等温线拟合接近Freundlich吸附等温线。     

Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases. • Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases. • A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well. • US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources. • Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns. Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.     

退化草原碱蓬土壤微生物生物量的季节动态模型

研究了东北退化草原土壤微生物生物量的季节变化,生态因子的季节变化以及生态因子对土壤微生物生物量的综合作用规律,微生物生物量W和呼吸速率W1的季节动态呈单峰上凸式曲线变化,8月份的有明显的高峰值出现,其值为：w/mg g^-1=4.9,w1/mg g^-1d^-1=28.1,同时利用IRM模型研究了生态因子对土壤微生物生物量变化的综合作用规律;Mt △Mto[1 （0.21rn-w1)△t],生态因子对土壤微生物生长的综合作用指数rn在整个生长季节的变化范围为：0.0273-0.7264,其中7-8月份rn较大,对微生物生长的限制作用较小,微生物生长较快,5月、6月、9月和10月rn较小,对微生物生长的限制作用较大,微生物生长较慢。     

Emissions of biogenic VOC from forest ecosystems in central Europe: Estimation and comparison with anthropogenic emission inventory

This paper describes a method of estimating emission fluxes of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) based on the approach proposed by Guenther et al. (1995) and the high-resolution Corine land-cover 2000 database (1 × 1 km resolution). The computed emission fluxes for the Czech Republic (selected for analysis as being representative of a heavily cultivated, central European country) are compared with anthropogenic emissions, both for the entire country and for individual administrative regions. In some regions, BVOC emissions are as high as anthropogenic emissions; however, in most regions the BVOC emissions are approximately 50% of the anthropogenic emissions. The yearly course of BVOC emissions (represented by monoterpenes and isoprene) is presented, along with the spatial distribution of annual mean values. Differences in emission distributions during winter (January) and summer (June) are also considered.     

Remote sensing of the urban heat island and its changes in Xiamen City of SE China

World-wide urbanization has significantly modified the landscape, which has important climatic implications across all scales due to the simultaneous removal of natural land cover and introduction of urban materials. This resulted in a phenomenon known as an urban heat island(UHI). A study on the UHI in Xiamen of China was carried out using remote sensing technology. Satellite thermal infrared images were used to determine surface radiant temperatures. Thermal remote sensing data were obtained from band 6 of two Landsat TM/ETM^ images of 1989 and 2000 to observe the UHI changes over l l-year period. The thermal infrared bands were processed through several image enhancement technologies. This generated two 3-dimension-perspective images of Xiamen‘s urban heat island in 1989 and 2000, respectively, and revealed heat characteristics and spatial distribution features of the UHI. To find out the change of the UHI between 1989 and 2000, the two thermal images were first normalized and scaled to seven grades to reduce seasonal difference and then overlaid to produce a difference image by subtracting corresponding pixels. The difference image showed an evident development of the urban heat island in the 11 years. This change was due largely to the urban expansion with a consequent alteration in the ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux. To quantitatively compare UHI, an index called Urban-Heat-Island Ratio Index(URI) was created. It can reveal the intensity of the UHI within the urban area. The calculation of the index was based on the ratio of UHI area to urban area. The greater the index, the more intense the UHI was. The calculation of the index for the Xiamen City indicated that the ratio of UHI area to urban area in 2000 was less than that in 1989. High temperatures in several areas in 1989 were reduced or just disappeared, such as those in old downtown area and Gulangyu lsland. For the potential mitigation of the UHI in Xiamen, a long-term heat island reduction strategy of planting shade trees and using light-colored, highly reflective roof and paving materials should be included in the plans of the city planers, environmental managers and other decision-makers to improve the overall urban environment in the future.     

Incorporating sorption/desorption of organic pollutants into river water quality model

Preliminary research was conducted about how to incorporate sorption/desorption of organic pollutants with suspended solids and sediments into single-chemical and one-dimensional water quality model of Jinghang Canal.Sedimentation-resuspension coefficient k3 was deduced; characteristics of organic pollutants, concentrations and components of suspended solids/sediments and hydrological and hydraulic conditions were integrated into k3 and further into river water quality model; impact of sorption/desorption of organic pollutants with suspended solids and sediments on prediction function of the model was discussed. Results demonstrated that this impact is pronounced for organic pollutants with relatively large Koc and Kow, especially when they are also conservative and foc of riversuspended solids/sediments is high, and that incorporation of sorption/ desorption of organic pollutants into river water quality model can improve its prediction accuracy.     

基于响应曲面法的臭氧生成敏感性分析

准确判断臭氧(O₃)生成敏感性对O₃污染成因分析和防控对策的制定至关重要.首次利用响应曲面方法设计最优试验方案,基于盒子模式模拟结果,快速量化O₃对其前体物变化的响应.结果表明,CO对O₃有正贡献,NO_x和VOCs与O₃呈现显著非线性关系,当φ(VOCs)与[φ(NO_x)-13.75]比值大于4.17时,为NO_x控制区,小于4.17时,为VOCs控制区;烯烃为影响O₃生成的关键VOCs组分,当φ(烯烃)与[φ(NO_x)-15]比值小于1.10且φ(烯烃)<35×10^-9时,烯烃有利于O₃的生成.响应曲面法在多因素和其交互作用对O₃生成影响的研究中取得了良好效果,为高效判断O₃敏感性提供了新的思路和方法.     

VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model: A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NO_x emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m³ for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m³ for the annual average of PM_2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NO_x emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m³, deep NO_x emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m³, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China.