海洋灾害中政府承灾力脆弱性研究

信息扩散方法可以将一个分明值的样本点变成一个模糊集,把单值点变成集值样本点.这种方法对于海洋灾害呈现的非连续、样本点个数少的情况尤其适用,可以最大程度挖掘数据本身携带的信息.本文以市级区域作为研究对象,利用信息扩散原理建立政府承灾力脆弱性评价模型,通过对政府承灾系数的超越概率分析来评价海洋灾害中政府承灾力的脆弱性.进而对海洋灾害政府承灾力的脆弱度进行系统聚类分析,并以山东省为例进行实证研究,最终得到山东省沿海各市风暴潮灾害政府承灾力脆弱度的风验区划图.研究结果表明,威海、烟台、东营、日照的政府承灾力脆弱度较重,青岛、滨州次之,而潍坊的政府脆弱度最小.究其差异原因,各市不尽相同,主要表现在各市灾害发生概率、经济发展水平以及重视程度的不同.长期来看,海洋灾害中政府承灾力的提高依赖于最大程度减少海洋灾害带来的经济损失以及最大程度保障政府应对灾害的资金准备,为各级政府提高抗灾减灾能力提供了一定参考.     

大气超细颗粒物观测和扩散模拟研究进展

总结了近年来不同地区对不同环境下大气超细颗粒物的观测和扩散模拟研究进展。大量的观测研究结果表明,大气超细颗粒物的时空分布、组成特征、形成和成长的特性因观测地区的不同而存在很大差异,受气象因素和局部污染源的影响很大;其来源主要包括固定、移动燃烧源的直接排放和大气中颗粒成核现象,前一种来源一般是局部的,而后一种来源则是区域性的。目前,大多数关于大气超细颗粒物扩散的模拟研究都是针对其质量浓度的,对其数浓度扩散的模拟研究主要集中在小范围(机动车排放烟云的研究方面),在城市区域范围上的研究和应用还很少。最后,探讨和展望了大气超细颗粒物今后的主要研究方向和研究中面临的挑战。     

Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 1. Dimensionless formulations and validity of simplified solutions

To obtain reliable diffusion parameters for diffusion testing, multiple experiments should not only be cross-checked but the internal consistency of each experiment should also be verified. In the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs, test interpretation of different phases often makes use of simplified analytical solutions. This study explores the feasibility of steady, quasi-steady, equilibrium and transient-state analyses using simplified analytical solutions with respect to (i) valid conditions for each analytical solution, (ii) potential error, and (iii) experimental time. For increased generality, a series of numerical analyses are performed using unified dimensionless parameters and the results are all related to dimensionless reservoir volume (DRV) which includes only the sorptive parameter as an unknown. This means the above factors can be investigated on the basis of the sorption properties of the testing material and/or tracer. The main findings are that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium-state analyses are applicable when the tracer is not highly sorptive. However, quasi-steady and equilibrium-state analyses become inefficient or impractical compared to steady state analysis when the tracer is non-sorbing and material porosity is significantly low. Systematic and comprehensive reformulation of analytical models enables the comparison of experimental times between different test methods. The applicability and potential error of each test interpretation can also be studied. These can be applied in designing, performing, and interpreting diffusion experiments by deducing DRV from the available information for the target material and tracer, combined with the results of this study.     

炸药爆炸条件下释放气溶胶扩散研究

针对炸药爆炸事故造成的气溶胶污染物为瞬时体源的特点,根据事故应急时效性的原则,利用后置虚拟源等效的方法和点源扩散的高斯公式,探讨了炸药爆炸事故造成的气溶胶污染物扩散范围和浓度的计算方法,并分析干沉积和物质放射性衰变等因素对扩散浓度的影响。运用该方法对钚气溶胶扩散进行了计算和分析,其结果表明:该计算方法具有一定的有效性和实用价值,能为该类事故早期实施各种应急计划和措施提供参考依据。     

Direct simulation of heterogeneous diffusion and inversion procedure applied to an out-diffusion experiment. Test case of Palmottu granite

An out-diffusion laboratory experiment using a non-reactive tracer was fitted using the Time Domain Diffusion (TDD) method. This rapid particle tracking method allows simulation of the heterogeneous diffusion based on pore-scale images and local values of diffusivities. The superimposed porosity and mineral 2D maps act as computation grids to condition diffusion pathways. We focused on a Palmottu granite sample, in which the connected pore space has a composite microstructure with cracks linking microporous minerals and is above the percolation threshold. Three main results were achieved: (i) When compared to the fitting obtained with one coefficient (best mean square residual R = 1.6 x 10(-2)), diffusion is shown to be suitably characterised with two coefficients related to cracks and microporous minerals (best R = 6.5 x 10(-4)), (ii) rather than imposing a local apparent diffusion coefficient D(a) independent of the local porosity Phi, a best fit is obtained by applying Archie's relationship D(a) = D(0) x G with G = Phi(m) to each pixel of the calculation grids (G is the geometry factor, D(0) is the diffusion coefficient in free fluid, and m is Archie's exponent), and (iii) the order of magnitude of the fitted diffusion coefficient or Archie's exponents (m=0 for microcracks and m=1.82 for microporous minerals) is physically realistic.     

复杂山区地形水利水电液氨施工泄漏研究

水电工程中液氨泄漏扩散对周围居民的危害很大,疏散区域划分成为重要的防护措施,但在复杂地形条件下确立准确的疏散区域成为难题。为解决这一难题,通过现场调查所得数据,采用大涡模拟方法对泄漏气体扩散进行模拟,分析氨的泄漏扩散在大气中的扩散规律,研究泄漏气体的扩散动力学演化过程及影响范围,计算泄漏事故中不同时间段影响范围,得出时间序列上的爆炸危险区域和有毒气体影响区域,最后总结分析制定安全防护距离的影响因素,为周边居民安全防护策略提供参考。     

建筑物走廊型通道中火灾烟气流动特性的研究

应用网络模型方法,将建筑物走廊型通道合理地划分为多个节点,在火源为10kg木材的情况下,利用已开发成功的烟流性状预测软件对四川消防科研所的一座实体建筑物进行了模拟计算,获得了各节点烟流性状的发展变化规律。经比较,模型计算结果与实验数据十分符合。证明走廊型通道的多节点划分方法正确、预测软件实用可靠。根据烟气侵入走道中两节点的时间差及两节点间距,提出了烟气弥漫速度的计算方法。该算法与实测结果间的相对误差小于3%,实例应用及研究的成果,为建筑物火灾时安全疏散动态模拟研究提供了理论依据。     

重点环保城市二氧化硫总量控制目标值的研究

根据城市的输送扩散污染特性和污染源排放结构制订出低、中、高和理想4种二氧化硫排放控制方案。根据高、中、低架源污染物排放 与地面环境质量之间的关系以及各重点城市年平均扩散系数,可以算出重点城市二氧化硫2010年总量控制方案对应的控制目标值。      

乌鲁木齐市大气污染成因分析及防治对策

乌鲁木齐市大气污染十分严重,并已被列入世界十大污染城市之一。乌鲁木齐所处山口地形、三面环山的特殊地理条件所形成的逆温层是造成大气严重污染的主要原因。本文就逆温层形成、污染源排放特点等影响因素进行分析,以提出切实可行的防治方法及解决途径,以达到明显改善乌鲁木齐大气环境质量的目的。     

Multiphase transfer processes in waste rock piles producing acid mine drainage: 2. Applications of numerical simulation

Acid mine drainage (AMD) results from the oxidation of sulfides, mainly pyrite, present in mine wastes, either mill tailings or waste rock. This is the second of two papers describing the coupled physical processes taking place in waste rock piles undergoing AMD production. Since the oxidation of pyrite involves the consumption of oxygen and the production of heat, the oxidation process initiates coupled processes of gas transfer by diffusion and convection as well as heat transfer. These processes influence the supply of oxygen that is required to sustain the oxidation process. This second paper describes a numerical simulator used to represent the interaction of these coupled transfer processes. Numerical simulations are applied to two large sites with extensive characterization programs and widely different properties and behavior that were described in the first paper. The South Dump of the Doyon mine in Canada is permeable and has a high pyrite oxidation rate, thus making temperature-driven air convection the main oxygen supply mechanism. The Nordhalde of the Ronnenberg mining district in Germany contains lower permeability material which is less reactive, thus leading to a more balanced contribution of gaseous diffusion and convection as oxygen supply mechanisms. Overall, simulations allow a coherent representation of the conditions monitored within the waste rock piles and the confirmation of their physical properties. Conceptual simulations are also carried out to illustrate the potential effect of border membranes and layered co-mingling as mitigation methods used to control AMD production in either active or future waste rock piles.