隧道内通风及障碍物对甲醇蒸气扩散的影响分析

为了研究环境条件对甲醇蒸气扩散以及危险区域的影响,应用CFD方法对隧道内甲醇蒸气的扩散进行模拟。结果表明:隧道内通风能够避免泄露区域产生蒸气积聚;障碍物位于泄漏源的上风向时,通过障碍物的紊乱风流携带作用较强,使甲醇蒸气在下游空间的分布更广,形成的危险区域也较大;障碍物较多时,隧道内的流场紊乱程度较大,气流的携带作用和障碍物间的蒸气积聚作用较强,导致蒸气分布范围广且规律性差;在通风与障碍物的综合影响作用下,甲醇蒸气扩散和分布主要集中于隧道的中下部,上部稳定的气流使蒸气不易产生积聚。     

不同机制条件下的煤层瓦斯流动方程研究

气体流动可分为连续流、滑流、过渡流、自由分子流,为研究不同流动机制下的煤层瓦斯流动规律,在充分考虑了不同扩散机制和滑移边界条件后,建立了适用于不同流动机制的煤层瓦斯流动方程,深入分析了视渗透率和达西渗透率的比值随Knudsen数的变化关系。研究结果表明:所提出的煤层瓦斯流动方程能准确描述包括达西流、滑流、自由分子流、过渡流在内的气体流动行为。瓦斯气体在煤层孔隙、裂隙中流动过程中浓度扩散和粘性流同时存在,当Kn<0.01时,粘性流起主导作用,瓦斯流动满足渗流方程;当Kn>10时,浓度扩散起主导作用,瓦斯流动符合扩散方程;在Kn的其他范围内,煤层孔隙裂隙中瓦斯流动以滑流、过渡流为主,在对之进行评价时应同时考虑扩散项和渗流项。研究结果可为揭示煤层瓦斯流动机理、提高煤层瓦斯抽采率和煤层气的产量预测准确度提供新方法和新途径。     

安全评价中的气体扩散模型及应用

安全评价中如何预测和模拟气体储罐在完全破裂后介质瞬间泄漏的动态扩散过程目前还没有合适的模型。通常只能借用环保领域中的高斯模型和Suttom模型,但环保领域的模型为稳态扩散模型,不含时间变量,并不适合动态扩散过程。提出了安全评价专用的气体扩散模型,并应用于实际评价。     

Social network effects on the adoption of sustainable natural resource management practices in Ethiopia

Soil loss, nutrient depletion and land degradation contribute to the skimpy performance of smallholder agriculture and pose serious policy challenges in developing countries. Surprisingly, natural resource management practices that enhance sustainability while improving productivity have not been fully adopted despite continuous efforts of promotion. Using data collected from 2901 farm households in the Farmers Innovation Fund (FIF) of the World Bank, this study examines factors delaying adoption of resource management and farming practices from the perspective of social learning and network size. Specifically, the study aims at identifying the extent to which differences in network structure matter in providing opportunities to learn about new ways of sustainable resource management practices using regression analysis. The result confirms that social network size plays a significant role in enhancing adoption of natural resource management practices. Moreover, external sources of information such as extension provision play a crucial role in enhancing adoption of resource management practices. Thus, future endeavours should link extension services to informal networks to enhance adoption of sustainable natural resource management practices.     

东北三省农作物洪涝时空风险评估

仅考虑空间差异的灾害风险评估已经满足不了灾害风险管理向精细化方向发展的要求,增加时间维度的时空风险评估分析有利于增强风险评估结果,对提升风险管理的准确性与针对性起着重要的作用.以东北三省为研究区,在气象数据、地形数据、农作物灾情数据和种植面积数据的支撑下,以县和月为单位的时空两个维度开展农作物洪涝时空风险评估研究.在方法上,采用反距离权重法(IDW),利用与县行政区最临近的3个气象站点的日降雨数据插值出县级行政区的日降雨数据;利用二元回归建立农作物洪涝受灾率与过程降雨量、县平均高程之间的农作物洪涝脆弱性函数;分县分月提取过程降雨量,构建非参数核密度的信息扩散模型拟合降雨量的概率分布;综合概率分布与脆弱性函数,计算出分县分月的农作物洪涝条件期望受灾率,实现风险时空差异表达.最后,制作出东北三省县级尺度下4至9月的农作物洪涝风险差异图,并对风险时空差异规律进行分析.     

Sensitivity of a coupled physical–biological model to turbulence: high-frequency simulations in a northern Adriatic station

This paper investigates the impacts of different turbulence models on the biological state at an ocean station in the northern Adriatic sea, named S3, comparing them with other uncertainties inherent to coupled physical–biological simulations. The numerical tool is a 1-D model resulting from the coupling of two advanced numerical models. The hydrodynamic part is modelled using the General Ocean Turbulence Model (www.gotm.net), in a version adopting state-of-the-art second-moment Turbulence Closure Models (TCMs). Marine biogeochemistry is parameterized with the Biogeochemical Flux Model (http://www.bo.ingv.it/bfm), which is a direct descendant of ERSEM (European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model). Results, obtained by forcing the model with hourly wind and solar radiation data and assimilating salinity casts, are compared against monthly observations made at the station during 2000–2001. Provided that modern second-moment TCMs are employed, the comparisons indicate that both the physical and the biological dynamics are relatively insensitive to the choice of the particular scheme adopted, suggesting that TCMs have finally ‘converged’ in recent years. As a further example, the choice of the nutrient boundary conditions has an impact on the system evolution that is more significant than the choice of the specific TCM, therefore representing a possible limitation of the 1-D model applied to stations located in a Region of Freshwater Influence. The 1-D model simulates the onset and intensity of the spring–summer bloom quite well, although the duration of the bloom is not as prolonged as in the data. Since local dynamics appears unable to sustain the bloom conditions well into summer, phytoplankton at the station was most likely influenced by river input or advection processes, an aspect that was not found when the S3 behaviour was adequately modelled using climatological forcings. When the focus is in predicting high-frequency dynamics, it is more likely that lateral advection cannot be neglected. While the physical state can be satisfactorily estimated at these short time scales, the accurate estimation of the biological state in coastal regions still appears as rather elusive.     

白塔堡河上覆水与沉积物间隙水N、P分布特征

为研究河流沉积物与间隙水间营养盐的迁移规律,采集白塔堡河干流平水期上覆水和沉积物间隙水样品,分析N、P分布特征,计算沉积物-水界面N、P扩散通量,并对上覆水与间隙水中营养盐含量进行回归分析. 结果表明:上覆水和间隙水中ρ(TN)、ρ(NH₃-N)和ρ(TP)均为农村带河段最低,城镇带和城市带河段较高. N、P的主要来源,农村带河段为农村灰水和面源污染,城镇带河段为生活污水和工业园排水,城市带河段为城市生活污水和工业废水. 间隙水中各营养盐质量浓度基本上都高于上覆水,空间分布趋势相似. NH₃-N、NO₂--N、NO₃--N和PO₄3--P在沉积物-水界面的平均扩散通量分别为0.429、0.134、0.080和0.143μmol/(m2·d),表明沉积物是上覆水重要的N、P源. 表层沉积物间隙水与上覆水中的ρ(NH₃-N)(R2=0.874,P=0.0002)和ρ(PO₄3--P)(R2=0.704,P=0.0005)均呈极显著相关,ρ(NO₂--N)呈显著相关(R2=0.501,P=0.0020),ρ(NO₃--N)的相关性(R2=0.353,P=0.0150)不显著,说明白塔堡河沉积物间隙水中的N主要以NH₃-N形态向上覆水中扩散;而间隙水中的P主要以PO₄3--P形态向上覆水中扩散.      

基于地基监测的人为源温室气体排放通量反演研究进展

不同尺度下温室气体的空间分布及变化趋势是研究气候变化的基础,也是评估相关减排政策实施效果的重要依据。当前碳排放核算主要基于排放清单,不确定性较大。基于监测数据的碳排放核算能够有效评估和修正排放清单结果,是对当前方法的有效补充。国内温室气体的监测主要针对污染源和环境浓度,对于人为源温室气体排放通量的监测研究较少。该文分析了近年来国内外基于地基监测的人为源温室气体排放通量研究,主要的研究方法可分为2类:柱浓度空间分布结合三维风场数据反演排放通量;结合实测体积分数、大气扩散模型和统计优化模型修正先验排放通量结果,以获取更准确的后验排放通量。通过分析和对比2种方法的优势和局限,讨论不同通量反演方法的适用场景。建议我国未来应构建适用于不同空间尺度的温室气体通量监测反演体系,综合利用多种监测手段,以校核验证排放清单,并为制定温室气体减排策略和评估应对气候变化工作成效提供技术支撑。     

液氯储罐泄漏事故后果的分析与探讨

针对一起液氯储罐泄漏事故后果进行了分析,通过计算泄漏部位的尺寸并确定泄漏速率,计算出泄漏量。对液氯扩散过程分为靠自身能量扩散和高斯扩散两个阶段进行分析。利用能量理论和高斯烟羽理论计算了每个阶段的扩散浓度、范围和时间。利用计算结果对事故的后果进行了分析。最后论述了液氯泄漏后应采取的紧急措施。     

熏烟模式中熏烟发生距离计算方法探究

熏烟发生距离(Xf)的确定是求解熏烟浓度的难点和关键。传统算法忽视Xf非定常性特征,使熏烟浓度计算值与监测值通常有较大偏离,与环评技术导则的要求不符。采用迭代算法和通过计算机编程计算对熏烟发生距离给出准确模拟,探求了熏烟计算过程中纳入非定常性特征的解决方法。对比计算表明新算法符合指数d为0.68,传统算法符合指数d为0.34。