建筑工程生产事故死亡人数时间序列分析

为研究建筑工程安全生产事故死亡人数的变化规律,采用时间序列分析方法,分析了建筑安全事故死亡人数时间序列上的趋势性规律,通过数据预处理和模型的识别与检验,最终建立了安全事故死亡人数预测模型。对全国2005—2014年建筑工程安全生产事故造成的死亡人数进行了分析和预测。结果表明:ARIMA模型各年预测值与实际值误差率为0.393,相比灰色模型和BP神经网络模型误差率最小。总体上说,ARIMA模型较适用于随机性较大的数据的趋势预测。     

两种方法测定铅锌尾矿中砷含量的比较研究

以铅锌尾矿样为测试样品,标土为质控样,分别用王水水浴-原子荧光法和微波消解-原子荧光法测定尾矿中砷含量,通过比较两种方法的实验过程以及数据结果,找出相对更适宜测定铅锌尾矿中砷含量的方法。结果表明,两种方法测定的标土砷含量均在推荐值范围内,微波消解尾矿样测定结果的相对标准偏差较小,重现性更好;实验过程中,微波消解-原子荧光法速度快,耗时短,效率更高。使用微波消解法测定铅锌尾矿中砷含量的结果更接近于样品的真实值。     

温度对多孔射气介质氡析出影响试验研究

为了研究围岩中温度对氡析出率的影响,选取某铀矿铀尾矿矿砂试样,根据相似准则设计并制作了测量多孔射气介质氡析出率的室内试验装置。采用RAD-7氡测量仪,运用等时间间隔取样方法测量氡浓度。采用对照试验的方法研究了温度对多孔射气介质氡析出率的影响规律。试验结果表明,在自然压力下,在温度为20℃到60℃范围内,随着温度的升高,多孔介质氡析出率逐渐增大,并且氡析出率与温度符合线性函数关系。     

Estimated trends and patterns of road traffic fatalities in China, 2002–2012

Objective: This study examined the time trends and age distribution patterns of estimated road traffic fatalities (RTFs) in China over the period 2002–2012. Methods: Data on age-, sex-, and region-specific RTF rates were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. The crude rates were standardized and the Mann-Kendall test was used to test the significance of time trends. Annual number of RTFs was calculated. To minimize the effect of yearly variations, magnitude of changes in and age distribution patterns of the RTFs were examined using mean values of 2 years. Results: RTFs increased significantly in China during the study period. Several features were identified for the RTFs in China. First, RTF rates skyrocketed in rural areas including towns and counties. Second, a significant increase in RTFs was also observed in cities even though the change in RTF rates was not statistically significant there. Third, individuals aged 20–24, 40–49, and 55–64, especially in rural areas, were particularly at risk for RTFs in recent years. Finally, RTFs became more common among middle-aged and older adults than young Chinese, with roughly 57% of all RTFs occurring among individuals aged 45 and above during 2011–2012. Conclusions: RTFs increased dramatically in China during the past decade, especially in rural areas. Age distribution patterns of RTFs have changed there. Community-based public health education and intervention programs are warranted.     

Analysis of car-to-bicycle approach patterns for developing active safety devices

Objective: To reduce the severity of injuries and the number of cyclist deaths in traffic accidents, active safety devices providing cyclist detection are considered to be effective countermeasures. The features of car-to-bicycle collisions need to be known in detail to develop such safety devices.

Methods: The study investigated near-miss situations captured by drive recorders installed in passenger cars. Because similarities in the approach patterns between near-miss incidents and real-world fatal cyclist accidents in Japan were confirmed, we analyzed the 229 near-miss incident data via video capturing bicycles crossing the road in front of forward-moving cars. Using a video frame captured by a drive recorder, the time to collision (TTC) was calculated from the car's velocity and the distance between the car and bicycle at the moment when the bicycle initially appeared.

Results: The average TTC in the cases where bicycles emerged from behind obstructions was shorter than that in the cases where drivers had unobstructed views of the bicycles. In comparing the TTC of car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents to the previously obtained results of car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents, it was determined that the average TTC in car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents was significantly longer than that in car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents.

Conclusions: When considering the TTC in the test protocol of evaluation for safety performance of active safety devices, we propose individual TTCs for evaluation of cyclist and pedestrian detections, respectively. In the test protocols, the following 2 scenarios should be employed: bicycle emerging from behind an unobstructed view and bicycle emerging from behind obstructions.     

保定市臭氧污染时空变化特征分析研究

为了解保定臭氧污染状况,利用2013年各环境空气自动监测点位监测数据,对臭氧污染状况及其时空变化特征进行分析.研究结果表明:①臭氧浓度的日变化呈单峰型结构,最高值与最低值分别出现在14点和6点,臭氧呈现明显的"周末效应".②臭氧浓度的月和季度变化具有典型的季节特征,春、夏季高,秋、冬季低,与太阳辐射强度呈正相关性.③各监测点位的臭氧浓度值差异明显,最高值与最低值分别出现在游泳馆点位和华电二校点位.     

陶瓷材料放射性衰变时间及最佳平衡周期研究

简述了有关放射性样品衰变平衡及平衡时间的基本理论,运用碘化钠γ谱仪对衰变时间介于0～27 d区间内的三组陶瓷样品进行放射性比活度测定,采取t检验法分析了同一样品在0d～7d、7d～12d、15 d、21 d等不同衰变时间条件下,放射性核素226Ra、232Th、40K比活度测试结果之间的差异程度,通过实验验证陶瓷样品衰变时间对其放射性测定结果准确性的影响.研究表明,当每组检测结果数据的显著性差异水平为5％,若兼顾科学性和经济性,则陶瓷样品的最佳放射性衰变时间应为至少21 d.     

西安市大气环境质量评价及变化趋势预测

选用SO2、NO2、PM10作为评价因子,采用时间序列的方法对西安市2009年-2014年大气环境质量进行分析评价.结果表明:2009年-2012年西安市空气质量达到了国家二级标准,SO2和NO2的年平均含量下降,2013年都略有上升,但总体上呈下降趋势,而颗粒物的年平均含量呈上升趋势且为影响该市空气质量的主要污染物,主要污染时间为1季度和4季度;利用GM(1,1)模型,预测2015年空气质量变化趋势,提出2015年应该采取措施降低颗粒物的含量,提高本市空气质量.     

Occurrence, distribution, and potential influencing factors of sewage sludge components derived from nine full-scale wastewater treatment plants of Beijing, China

Millions of tons of waste activated sludge (WAS) produced from biological wastewater treatment processes cause severe adverse environmental consequences. A better understanding of WAS composition is thus very critical for sustainable sludge management. In this work, the occurrence and distribution of several fundamental sludge constituents were explored in WAS samples from nine full-scale wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) of Beijing, China. Among all the components investigated, active heterotrophic biomass was dominant in the samples (up to 9478 mg/L), followed by endogenous residues (6736 mg/L), extracellular polymeric substances (2088 mg/L), and intracellular storage products (464 mg/L) among others. Moreover, significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in composition profiles of sludge samples among the studied WWTPs. To identify the potential parameters affecting the variable fractions of sludge components, wastewater source as well as design and operational parameters of WWTPs were studied using statistical methods. The findings indicated that the component fraction of sewage sludge depends more on wastewater treatment alternatives than on wastewater characteristics among other parameters. A principal component analysis was conducted, which further indicated that there was a greater proportion of residual inert biomass in the sludge produced by the combined system of the conventional anaerobic/anoxic/oxic process and a membrane bioreactor. Additionally, a much longer solids retention time was also found to influence the sludge composition and induce an increase in both endogenous inert residues and extracellular polymeric substances in the sludge.     

一组中温厌氧消化菌群高温启动过程中的菌群多样性变化研究

该研究利用37℃培养的中温厌氧消化菌群为菌源,直接提温至50℃驯化培养,获得连续处理高浓度糖蜜废水的厌氧消化产甲烷菌群,并考察高温驯化过程中菌群结构及多样性的变化特征.结果表明,中温厌氧消化菌群直接转入高温培养后,在高浓度有机废水连续进料的条件下,厌氧消化过程能够快速启动生成甲烷,并在22 d后形成稳定的高温厌氧消化产甲烷菌群,平均甲烷生成效率为162.3 m L CH_4/g COD.乙酸和丙酸是厌氧发酵液内的2类主要有机酸,产气稳定期间的质量浓度分别为25.3和145.3 mg·L~(-1).转入高温培养后,菌群结构产生巨大变化,细菌变异程度强于古菌,并逐渐稳定成为以代谢糖、多种有机酸的细菌和产甲烷古菌为主要优势菌群的高温厌氧消化菌群.克隆结果显示细菌菌群以Thermacetogenium和Acetomicrobium faecal为主要优势菌群,分别占细菌克隆文库的33.44%和20.99%;古菌菌群以Methanosaeta和Methanoculleus为主要优势菌群,占古菌克隆文库的56.40%和39.75%.转入高温培养后,产甲烷古菌的总生物量下降,含量约为7.6×106拷贝/g活性污泥.研究结果对阐明温度选择压力对厌氧消化菌群结构与功能影响,改进高温厌氧消化菌群富集方法具有重要意义.