基于置信规则的村镇应急避难场所暴雨灾害链风险诊断*

为解决村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨灾害时的风险问题,基于故障树和置信规则库推理方法,提出暴雨灾害链和村镇应急避难场所功能破坏链相结合的场所避难功能失效风险诊断模型。根据事故致因理论推理灾害节点变量,通过故障树描述灾害链,运用关联规则从历史灾害数据中挖掘规则,建立置信规则库系统,构建村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险诊断模型,并以四川省某寄宿制学校为例进行模型验证。研究结果表明:该模型可实现不同证据组合下村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险的诊断推理;实例的模型诊断结果与实际情况吻合,证实该模型能够科学地诊断村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨等恶劣自然条件时存在的风险,可为村镇应急避难场所规划设计和应急管理提供理论支撑。     

远程数值模拟技术在赤潮应急监测中的应用研究

根据赤潮灾害应急监测的需要,以应急监测实施为出发点,基于水动力数值模拟技术和赤潮藻种扩散模拟技术,建立可业务化应用的赤潮应急监测远程数值模拟平台。平台可成为多部门应对赤潮灾害的协同工作平台,为管理部门提供赤潮发生后藻种的漂移方向、扩散范围等信息,并为监测队伍提供监测范围指引。平台的构建实现了对突发性赤潮灾害的远程智能分析和决策支持,提高了赤潮应急监测方案的合理性和监测实施的有效性。     

山东近岸黄海极值风速预测及防灾建议——基于极值分布和风向的预测

在总结有关海上大风预测研究成果的基础上,根据极值理论合理选取预测极值风速的极值分布计算模型:Gumbel分布和Poisson-Gumbel分布。根据山东近岸黄海26 a的风速观测资料,采用分风向统计数据和投影法处理数据,充分考虑风向和相邻风向的影响,形成十六个风向的年极值序列和过程极值序列样本;最后,用两种模型计算得到各个风向的极值风速预测结果,对比不考虑风向的计算结果,分析出黄海海域海洋风灾发生的时间规律和致灾风向,并对黄海海域的防风减灾提出合理建议。     

网络环境下图书馆防灾减灾问题的探讨

网络环境下图书馆防灾减灾问题是必须引起人们足够重视的问题。通过对引起图书馆网络灾害的各种因素进行分析,从制度建设、网络业务人员的培训、制定应急预案、加大网络安全建设的投入、加强网络的软硬件管理和创建异地容灾系统等方面进行了网络环境下图书馆防灾减灾问题的探讨。     

明太祖的荒政立法

救荒是明代经济发展、社会稳定的重要措施。为了保证荒政的顺利而有效地进行,明太祖从灾害防治到灾害赈济,从赈灾官员的选用到对吏治腐败的整治,都制定了较为详细的法律条文。从这些法律条文中可以概括出明太祖的荒政立法包含以下两个方面：一、防灾与减灾中的立法;二、救灾中的立法。朱元璋通过荒政立法,一方面惩治了救灾中的腐败,提高了救灾的效率;另一方面也使灾民在自然灾害面前得到国家的救济,使社会生产力的破坏得以减轻,为明王朝的经济恢复和发展奠定了基础。     

明太祖的荒政立法

救荒是明代经济发展、社会稳定的重要措施。为了保证荒政的顺利而有效地进行,明太祖从灾害防治到灾害赈济,从赈灾官员的选用到对吏治腐败的整治,都制定了较为详细的法律条文。从这些法律条文中可以概括出明太祖的荒政立法包含以下两个方面:一、防灾与减灾中的立法;二、救灾中的立法。朱元璋通过荒政立法,一方面惩治了救灾中的腐败,提高了救灾的效率;另一方面也使灾民在自然灾害面前得到国家的救济,使社会生产力的破坏得以减轻,为明王朝的经济恢复和发展奠定了基础。     

论民初我国救灾成效不彰及其原因

民国初年,我国救灾的成效方面存在着相当的不足,并直接引起连带性恶性效果。影响民国初年救灾成效不佳的原因主要可以归纳为三点,即:施政重点倾斜、社会动荡不安、政府救灾功能减弱等。     

Risk,vulnerability, and pragmatic inevitability: the conflict–disaster nexus and urban governance in Johannesburg,South Africa

This paper spotlights post-disaster relief provision in Johannesburg, South Africa, following the floods of 2016 in a bid to explore how local government and non-governmental actors in the country conceive of compounding vulnerability and conflict within urban disaster governance. It reveals the diverse strategies employed to navigate violent conflict during the cyclical occurrence of disaster and reconstruction that the predominantly migrant population experiences in the Setswetla informal settlement, adjacent to the Alexandra township in northern Johannesburg. Rendered visible in moments of disaster and recovery are the spatial politics and multidimensional nature of conflict. These phenomena unfold across various levels of urban governance and in the affected community and effectively construct a disaster citizenship that makes risk reduction and community cohesion impossible in the eyes of disaster managers. This research, based on a set of expert interviews, integrates conflict and disaster studies to shed light on how the conflict–disaster interface materialises, and is operationalised, in an urban setting.     

Insiders and outsiders: local government and NGO engagement in disaster response in Guimaras,Philippines

This paper examines local government and non‐governmental organisation (NGO) engagement in disaster response in the wake of the M/T Solar 1 oil spill in Guimaras, Western Visayas, Philippines, on 11 August 2006. It assesses the response activities of these two entities as well as the institutional factors that affected their interaction on the ground. Local government and NGO engagement was shaped by multi‐layered, overlapping, and oftentimes contending government‐designed response frameworks. Within these frameworks, government actors played the role of primary implementer and provider of relief, allowing them to determine who could be involved and the extent of their involvement. The absence of formal roles for NGOs in these frameworks not only undermines their ability to work in a setting where such institutional set‐ups are operational but also it reaffirms their ‘outsider’ status. This study of the Guimaras oil spill illustrates the complexity and the institutional difficulties inherent in disaster response and coordination in the Philippines.     

美国的灾害应急管理及其对我国相关工作的启示

在介绍美国灾害应急管理体系的基础上，结合中国实际，对美国气象灾害应急管理工作进行了分析，并借鉴其成功经验，提出了建立和完善中国气象灾害应急机制的一些措施。认为广泛吸纳国际社会在灾害应急管理方面的成功模式和经验，形成具有中国特色的现代化气象灾害应急管理机制，从而进一步加快中国气象灾害管理体系的建设，是科学应对气象灾害，减少人民生命财产损失，实现国家安全和经济社会可持续发展的一个重要举措。