基于历史记录的赤潮灾害危险性区划方法的构建与应用

利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间...     

城市自然灾害应急管理中社会参与的评价研究 ——以太原市为例*

随着我国经济建设与社会建设的较快发展,城市自然灾害应急管理研究得到了越来越多的关注。目前城市自然灾害应急管理的研究多着眼于政府层面,尚未对社会力量在城市自然灾害应急管理中的作用进行详细论证。为研究社会力量在城市自然灾害应急活动中的现状,在坚持政府主导的原则下分析了社会参与在城市自然灾害应急管理中的重要作用,提出了社会力量参与城市自然灾害应急管理的评价指标体系,并进一步构建了基于G1方法的城市应急管理中社会参与的评价模型,对社会参与进行定量化分析。在此基础上,以太原市为例进行了实证研究,根据评价结果了解到太原市社会参与的状况,并找到社会参与做的比较好和存在不足的地方,并提出一些改善意见以提高城市自然灾害应急管理中的社会参与水平。     

Build back better: implementation in Victorian bushfire reconstruction

The ‘build back better’ (BBB) concept signals an opportunity to decrease the vulnerability of communities to future disasters during post‐disaster reconstruction and recovery. The 2009 Victorian bushfires in Australia serve as a case study for this assessment of the application of core BBB principles and their outcomes. The results show that several BBB measures were successfully implemented in Victoria and are relevant for any post‐disaster reconstruction effort. The BBB initiatives taken in Victoria include: land‐use planning determined by hazard risk‐based zoning; enforcement of structural design improvements; facilitated permit procedures; regular consultations with stakeholders; and programmes conducted for social and economic recovery. Lessons from the Victorian recovery urge the avoidance of construction in high‐risk zones; fairness and representativeness in community consultations; adequate support for economic recovery; the advance establishment of recovery frameworks; and empowerment of local councils.     

Moderating effects of empathic concern and personal distress on the emotional reactions of disaster volunteers

This study examines stress and mood outcomes in community volunteers who undertook one week's worth of post‐disaster relief work in L'Aquila, Italy, which had been hit by an earthquake four months earlier. The study team obtained pre‐ and post‐relief work data from 130 volunteers involved in activities such as preparing food for the displaced, cleaning the camps and distributing clean linen. The Perceived Stress Scale, the State‐Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Profile of Mood States were administered at the start and at the end of the aid activities. Psychopathological symptoms and empathy were assessed in the beginning, using the Symptom Checklist 90 Revised and the Interpersonal Reactivity Index, respectively. The results show that, following the assistance work, volunteers displayed decreases in perceived stress, general distress, anxiety and anger, as well as increases in positive emotions. The empathy facets empathic concern and personal distress showed different patterns in modulating the post‐disaster relief work adaptation for some of the mood outcomes.     

食品应急储备配置比例及方法研究

为提升食品应急储备的科学性、合理性,在总结分析食品应急储备的种类、形式与影响因素的基础上,以我国官方发布的食物与营养发展目标为依据,确定了八大类应急储备食品的基础配置比例,并提出了食品大类配置比例的修正方法,随后综合考虑生产周期、保质期、易储性和储备成本,给出实物储备和产能储备的配置方法,最后提出了单类食品实物储备模式下单品的配置原则和方法,并以单价修正为例对单品选择性修正方法进行了说明,对不断提高突发事件应急保障工作的水平,提升应对突发事件的保障能力,实现受灾群众更科学合理的饮食结构有重要意义。     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

‘Schismo‐urbanism’: cities,natural disaster,and urban sociology

This paper examines a city and a natural disaster, specifically New Orleans, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina of August 2005. Recovery here is ongoing and the process of return is incomplete, with long‐term dislocation to other cities in the United States, such as Houston, Texas. The question arises as to how planning and stratification influence evacuation and return/dislocation and how they result in a particular practice of adaptation. This interrelated process is conceptually integrated and termed ‘schismo‐urbanism’ and is analysed within a multidimensional theoretical framework to evaluate aspects of urban sociology and natural disasters. Empirical research is based on a quantitative and qualitative mixed‐method case study. Data were collected during two rounds of field research in New Orleans and Houston in 2007 and 2009. As a comparative socio‐spatial study of affected and receptor communities, it makes a novel theoretical and methodological contribution to research on urban disasters in the context of continuing and rapid social change, and is targeted at disaster researchers, planning theorists and practitioners, and urbanists.     

Return or relocate? An inductive analysis of decision‐making in a disaster

This paper proposes an inductive analysis of the decision as to whether to return or to relocate by persons in the State of Louisiana, United States, who evacuated after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005, respectively. Drawing on interviews with evacuees in these events and extensive fieldwork in the impacted area, the paper seeks to identify the folk dimensions of the decision‐making process, assess their arrangements, and situate the process in the larger context of risk and resilience in an advanced society. It suggests that, despite the material and emotional upheaval experienced by affected persons, the decision‐making process is a rational endeavour combining a definite set of tightly interconnected factors, involving material dimensions and substantive values that can act in concert or in conflict. In addition, it indicates that there are significant variations by geographic areas, homeownership, and kind of decision. Some theoretical implications, practical measures, and suggestions for future research are examined.     

陕西2012年极端天气气候事件与气象灾害

利用极端天气气候事件监测系统监测结果,分析了陕西1981-2012年极端天气气候事件出现次数和强度,发现2012年陕西极端天气气候事件次数少于多年平均值,但华阴7月2-4日、佳县7月24-28日极端降水事件强度之大,为历史罕见,佳县27日降水量、26-28日3d降水量均超过百年一遇的水平,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失.说明即便是在极端天气气候事件出现次数少,气候年景较好的年份,局地也会出现历史罕见的极端事件和灾害.此外,还分析了极端天气气候事件次数与灾情年景评估指数之间的相关性.     

2012年我国主要气象灾害回顾

2012年,我国主要气象灾害为暴雨洪涝、热带气旋、干旱、高温、连阴雨、雪灾、风雹及沙尘暴.其中暴雨过程多,长江、黄河、海河等流域先后出现明显汛情,北京、甘肃、四川、重庆、云南、贵州、宁夏、青海和新疆等地出现山洪地质灾害,但暴雨洪涝灾情偏轻;热带气旋数量接近常年,但影响时间集中、范围广,灾情偏重;阶段性干旱明显,但干旱范围小,影响偏轻;中东部地区高温日数多,极端性强,南方部分地区早稻遭受轻至中度高温热害;区域性、阶段性低温阴雨天气多发,对农业生产造成一定影响;降雪量明显偏少,雪灾偏轻;风雹日数少,灾害损失偏轻;春季北方沙尘日数为近52年最少;中东部地区雾霾天气频繁,对交通运输产生较大影响.总体而言,2012年为我国气象灾害偏轻年份.