基于系统分析原理对工业企业总体地震灾害的预测

以设备单体在一定地震裂度下的破坏概率为基础 ,应用相关的概率论知识和系统分析方法 ,根据系统的网络功能图 ,得到系统总体的震害预测。在此基础上 ,对系统的薄弱环节进行分析 ,从而为系统的抗震加固提供科学、合理的依据。此方法的建立使我国企业总体的震害预测和抗震加固变得科学、方便、可行。     

中国自然灾害综合研究的进展

为了了解我国的灾情总况,研究多国自然灾害的总体特点和规律,提出了我国宏观减灾对策,为此,研究组做了量研究工作,本文从九个方面概述了中国自然灾害综合研究的进展状况。     

Studies on biological features of band pine forests in the intermontane Minusinsk Depression by methods of gradient analysis

The results of gradient analysis of band pine forests in the Minusinsk Depression are presented. Methods of DCA ordination and correlation analysis have been used to reveal specific features of phytocenotic diversity formation in forest communities growing in azonal habitats of this steppe depression and to test zonal and typological forest units for ecological integrity. The role of directly acting zonal and compensatory ecological factors and specific relationships between types of forest communities and ecological-topographic conditions in the main forms of relief are considered.     

Simulation test on mixed water and sand inrush disaster induced by mining under the thin bedrock

Coal seam mining under thin bedrock will make transmission fissure zone go through to the water-rich aquifer under the covering layer, which will cause water flooding and sand gushing in the working face. The test model of the mixed water and sand inrush transfer and inrush was designed and manufactured to simulate the startup, transfer and inrush process of the mixed water and sand inrush in the overburden fracture channel. The characteristics of the mixed water and sand inrush in the fracture channels were researched. The variation characteristics of water pressure in different positions of the fracture channel were revealed through analyzing “\/” type fracture form which is wide at the top and goes narrower down to the base, of various inclination angles under the water pressure of 0.06 MPa and 0.08 MPa. The results show that the water and sand inrush took place instantly in the mined area. Based on the characteristics of water pressure variations, changes in water pressure are divided into two phases: rising phase and lowering to stable phase. Under the other same conditions, when the fissure channel angle increases, the pore water pressure and its sudden drop will increase too, and the inrushing process will get more rapidly; the bigger the water pressure is, the pore water pressure increases more rapidly and violently. From this, the transfer characteristics and dynamic mechanism of the mixed water and sand inrush were explored.     

I will not go,I cannot go: cultural and social limitations of disaster preparedness in Asia,Africa, and Oceania

While much work has been invested in addressing the economic and technical basis of disaster preparedness, less effort has been directed towards understanding the cultural and social obstacles to and opportunities for disaster risk reduction. This paper presents local insights from five different national settings into the cultural and social contexts of disaster preparedness. In most cases, an early warning system was in place, but it failed to alert people to diverse environmental shocks. The research findings show that despite geographical and typological differences in these locations, the limitations of the systems were fairly similar. In Kenya, people received warnings, but from contradictory systems, whereas in the Philippines and on the island of Saipan, people did not understand the messages or take them seriously. In Bangladesh and Nepal, however, a deeper cultural and religious reasoning serves to explain disasters, and how to prevent them or find safety when they strike.     

Revisiting community-based disaster risk management

This paper examines whether the hypothesis presented in Ocho Rios in 1984 is still valid and relevant. The first part of the paper revisits the central tenets of the 1984 paper. The second part of the paper gives a broad overview of how community-based approaches have been taken up and evolved over the last quarter-century. The third part of the paper examines, with the benefit of hindsight, to what extent the approaches advocated in Ocho Rios are still valid. Finally, the paper examines the role of community-based and local-level approaches looking into the future. The paper is written as a personal reflection, without any pretence to academic rigour and also without systematically surveying the thousands of ongoing community-based or local-level initiatives in disaster risk management, referred to in this paper as community-based disaster risk management and local-level disaster risk management, respectively.     

Risk evaluation of natural disasters based on connection function

There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.     

上海地区台风灾害损失评估

台风是一种生成于热带或副热带洋面上的破坏性很强的天气系统。历史上台风对上海曾造成较大的影响和经济损失。利用上海气象站风、雨观测资料、上海基础地理信息数据、上海社会和经济数据以及台风灾情资料,利用逐步回归方法建立了上海台风灾害损失评估模型,并开展了上海台风灾损的年际变化和地区分布差异评价。结果表明建立的台风灾害损失评估模型可以用来进行台风灾损评估。近50 a来上海台风灾损度的变化趋势不明显,上海地区因台风影响造成的损失以沿海的崇明、南汇最严重,其次是地势低洼的青浦、金山和松江,中心城区和闵行台风灾损最低。由于历史台风灾情资料记载的不完整性和本评估未充分考虑上海社会经济发展及自然灾害防御能力的提高对台风灾损的影响,评估结果还具有一定的不确定性。深入综合考虑台风灾害致灾性和当地社会经济发展变化,建立更科学的台风灾害损失评估模型,是今后的研究方向     

An “Asymmetric Threat” That Should Have Been Anticipated: Political Discourse on 2007 Wildfires in Greece

This paper examines the pre-election interpretative repertoires employed by the two main political parties in Greece regarding the 2007 summer wildfires, which have been recorded as the worst natural disaster in contemporary Greek history. This involved a discourse analysis of press releases, interviews, and press conference statements. While the New Democracy governing party initially followed a “business-as-usual” scenario, comparing the situation with past wildfires under the administration of PASOK (the biggest opposition party), the increasing number of deaths over time rendered any such comparison invalid. In order to regain momentum, the government launched the interpretative repertoire of “asymmetric threat”, which proved instrumental in helping the government to get re-elected. This political discourse lacked any consideration of broad socioeconomic changes in rural areas in Greece which might have contributed substantially to the severity of the disaster. Implications for wildfire policy are discussed.     

School-based disaster risk reduction education in primary schools in Da Nang City,Central Vietnam

The concept of school-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) education has increasingly become popular as greater emphasis is placed on the role of schools in reducing risks and building the resilience of the education system. This paper discusses the variations in the implementation of DRR education among primary schools in different areas including urban, rural, mountainous, plain and coastal areas in Da Nang City, Central Vietnam. For rural schools, similarities in the implementation of DRR education are observed and schools in both rural plain and rural mountainous areas stress the provision of disaster-related training. In addition, improvement of school buildings and external relationship is important for the resilience of urban schools. Specifically, for schools in urban coastal areas, school location and structure are significant, while for schools in the urban plain lands, enhancement of collaboration with their community has the most potential to contribute to the resilience of a school. From that, this research proposes that leadership and prioritization are key factors in helping schools to manage internal and external resources to efficiently overcome challenges and effectively promote DRR education towards the enhancement of schools’ resilience.