大坝下游定点区域溶解氧饱和度预测

大坝通过坝身泄流时,巨大的洪水卷吸空气中的大量气体直泻到下游河床,造成下游河道特别是近坝区域气体含量过饱和,给下游水生生物带来不利影响,其中鱼类气泡病就是水体气体过饱和造成的典型病症。为探明大坝泄流对坝下河道溶解氧饱和度的影响,以三峡 葛洲坝区域坝下近坝区定点区域的溶解氧实测资料为基础,建立溶解氧饱和度的BP网络预测模型,对大坝不同运行工况进行下游溶解氧饱和度的预测仿真计算,并将仿真预测值与实测及数值模拟结果进行比较分析。结果得出BP网络模型能很好地逼近坝下近坝区指定区域的溶解氧饱和度,可根据大坝运行工况对下游水体溶解氧饱和度进行快速预测,为有效控制坝下水体溶解氧饱和度提供借鉴     

基于F-AHP的产业转移后可持续发展评价模型构建与实证研究

本着系统思想, 运用F AHP法,依据现有相关数据和多位专家意见,从产业自身发展、产业与区域经济发展、产业与区域社会发展、产业与区域资源环境发展4个模块30个指标构建产业转移后可持续发展评价指标体系,建立包含指标间模糊关系矩阵和面向参评产业的模糊评价矩阵的评价模型。通过模型评价了2006～2009年江苏苏北各市转移产业的可持续发展水平和能力。模型结果表明：苏北五市近年来承接的产业已获得较好的生存能力和可持续发展能力,但从可持续发展度的分值来看,苏北各市转移产业的可持续发展水平还不高;相比于传统产业,各市目前转移产业的可持续发展水平普遍较高,但苏北五市承接的产业有较大的同构性。因此,苏北各市下一阶段应优先发展比较优势产业,错位承接转移产业并考虑其可持续发展能力的培育     

基于物元模型的土地整理项目绩效评价方法与案例研究

随着新公共管理理念的普及和土地整理在我国社会经济发展中重要性的日益显著,对土地整理项目绩效评价理论、方法及实证研究意义重大。针对已有研究的不足,在界定土地整理项目绩效内涵基础上构建了基于“流程逻辑”框架的土地整理项目绩效评价指标体系,结合物元分析法建立了物元评价模型,并以浙江省永康市石柱镇土地整理项目为例,展开了实证研究。结果表明物元评价模型适合用于土地整理项目绩效评价。综合评价显示永康市石柱镇项目总体绩效水平为“较差”,绩效值为0.014 4。单指标评价显示:该项目只有4个指标绩效水平达到“良好及以上”,1个指标处于“一般”,其他的都处于“较差”水平;研究项目区的绩效水平主要受耕地面积增加率、土地利用提高率等9个因素影响。永康市在今后的土地整理项目建设中应该针对这些绩效影响因素采取相应措施,不断改善项目的整体绩效水平     

Spectral estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants

Underlying levels of atmospheric pollutants, assumed to be governed by smoothing mechanisms due to atmospheric dispersion, can be estimated from global emissions source databases on greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting compounds. However, spatial data may be contaminated with noise or even missing or zero-valued at many locations. Therefore, a problem that arises is how to extract the underlying smooth levels. This paper sets out a structural spatial model that assumes data evolve across a global grid constrained by second-order smoothing restrictions. The frequency-domain approach is particularly suitable for global datasets, reduces the computational burden associated with two-dimensional models and avoids cumbersome zero-inflated skewed distributions. Confidence intervals of the underlying levels are also obtained. An application to the estimation of global levels of atmospheric pollutants from anthropogenic emissions illustrates the technique which may also be useful in the analysis of other environmental datasets of similar characteristics.     

Mobility of Cd and Cu in formulated sediments coated with iron hydroxides and/or humic acids: a DGT and DGT-PROFS modeling approach

The diffusive gradients technique in thin films (DGT) was used to investigate the kinetic resupply of Cd and Cu to pore water from the solid phase. For the sake of simplification, experiments were performed using formulated sediments that differed in the presence or absence of humic acids (HA) and/or of iron hydroxides (i.e., goethite and ferrihydrite). The effects of the time after the contamination of the solid phase (aging effect) on formulated sediments that were coated with goethite and HA and spiked with Cd were also evaluated. Kinetic DGT results were interpreted using the newly developed, multi-compartmental model DGT-PROFS.Due to Cu humate formation, the addition of HA slightly increased the Cu concentration in the pore water independent of the effect of the iron hydroxide coating on the formulated sediments and slightly decreased that of Cd. The impact of 8-190 d of aging resulted in a significant decrease in the Cd concentration of the pore water over an increasing incubation time.Modeling our results with DGT-PROFS led to the following conclusions concerning the impact of HA and iron hydroxides on Cd and Cu availability. First, in the presence of HA and absence of iron hydroxides, Cd is associated mainly with weak sites, while Cu is bound to strong sites. Similarly, in the presence of both iron hydroxides and HA, Cu appeared to be more heavily associated with the strong sites than did Cd. When the incubation time increased from 8 to 190 d, a proportion of Cd initially adsorbed onto weak sites transferred to the strong sites, suggesting that the adsorption of Cd on sediments is controlled partially by slow kinetic processes.     

Effects of C60 nanoparticle exposure on earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus) and implications for population dynamics

Effects of C₆₀ nanoparticles (nominal concentrations 0, 15.4 and 154 mg/kg soil) on mortality, growth and reproduction of Lumbricus rubellus earthworms were assessed. C₆₀ exposure had a significant effect on cocoon production, juvenile growth rate and mortality. These endpoints were used to model effects on the population level. This demonstrated reduced population growth rate with increasing C₆₀ concentrations. Furthermore, a shift in stage structure was shown for C₆₀ exposed populations, i.e. a larger proportion of juveniles. This result implies that the lower juvenile growth rate due to exposure to C₆₀ resulted in a larger proportion of juveniles, despite increased mortality among juveniles. Overall, this study indicates that C₆₀ exposure may seriously affect earthworm populations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that juveniles were more sensitive to C₆₀ exposure than adults.     

Quantification of nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems by use of a process oriented biogeochemical model

Simulations with the process oriented Forest-DNDC model showed reasonable to good agreement with observations of soil water contents of different soil layers, annual amounts of seepage water and approximated rates of nitrate leaching at 79 sites across Germany. Following site evaluation, Forest-DNDC was coupled to a GIS to assess nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems for the year 2000. At national scale leaching rates varied in a range of 0–>80 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (mean 5.5 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). A comparison of regional simulations with the results of a nitrate inventory study for Bavaria showed that measured and simulated percentages for different nitrate leaching classes (0–5 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:66% vs. 74%, 5–15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:20% vs. 20%, >15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:14% vs. 6%) were in good agreement. Mean nitrate concentrations in seepage water ranged between 0 and 23 mg NO₃–N l⁻¹.     

凹凸棒土的氨氮吸附性能研究

在以氨氮去除率为指标,在振荡时间60 min,振荡温度25℃,振荡速度140r/min的条件下发现凹凸棒土的最佳投加量2.5 g;添加凹凸棒土可以加强SBR生物系统去除氨氮的能力;拟合凹凸棒土吸附氨氮的等温线方程符合Freundlich吸附模型.     

大宝山矿区水体和沉积物中重金属的污染评价

分别于丰水期和枯水期对广东省大宝山矿区铁龙拦泥坝至凉桥河段水体中溶解态的重金属进行了调查,应用EPA推荐的健康风险评价模型发现,水体中非致癌物通过饮水途径所导致平均个人年风险排列顺序是Cu〉Pb〉Zn,最大值的平均个人年风险在丰水期和枯水期的平均值分别是2.14×10-7 a-1和4.13×10-7 a-1,小于国际防辐射委员会（ICRP）推荐的最大可接受平均个人年风险5.0×10-5a-1。致癌物Cd的平均个人年风险在丰水期和枯水期的平均值分别是3.52×10-4 a-1和4.53×10-4 a-1,大于ICRP推荐的最大可接受值,同时也大于非致癌物3～4个数量级。另外,通过对枯水期沉积物的重金属总量分析,发现凉桥槽对坑支流受水体pH的影响,导致其沉积物重金属的浓度最高。根据Long和Macdonald利用生物效应数据库法建立的沉积物质量基准,发现除冷水泾外,其他采样点的平均效应中值指数（mERMQ）值都大于1.5,可见沉积物中的重金属会对当地底栖生物产生毒害作用。     

宁波市大气可吸入颗粒物PM1o和PM2.5的源解析研究

在宁波市布设4个代表性点位,于2010年春季、夏季和冬季进行大气PM10和PM2.s的采样,同时采集了多种颗粒物源样品,建立了PM10、PM2.5和源样品的化学成分谱.采用化学质量平衡模型(CMB)对宁波市PM10、PM2.5进行源解析.结果表明,城市扬尘、煤烟尘、机动车尾气尘是宁波市PM10、PM2.5的3大污染源,...