Species distribution modelling—Effect of design and sample size of pseudo-absence observations

We explored the effect of varying pseudo-absence data in species distribution modelling using empirical data for four real species and simulated data for two imaginary species. In all analyses we used a fixed study area, a fixed set of environmental predictors and a fixed set of presence observations. Next, we added pseudo-absence data generated by different sampling designs and in different numbers to assess their relative importance for the output from the species distribution model. The sampling design strongly influenced the predictive performance of the models while the number of pseudo-absences had minimal effect on the predictive performance. We attribute much of these results to the relationship between the environmental range of the pseudo-absences (i.e. the extent of the environmental space being considered) and the environmental range of the presence observations (i.e. under which environmental conditions the species occurs). The number of generated pseudo-absences had a direct effect on the predicted probability, which translated to different distribution areas. Pseudo-absence observations that fell within grid cells with presence observations were purposely included in our analyses. We discourage the practice of excluding certain pseudo-absence data because it involves arbitrary assumptions about what are (un)suitable environments for the species being modelled.     

宝钢厂区植被碳储量及其固碳效益评价

以著名钢铁企业上海宝钢为例,基于厂区植被调查、航片数字化解释、优势种生物量测定及模型建立,对宝钢厂区植被碳储量和固碳能力进行估算,并通过碳税法对其固碳效益进行评价,以期为城市工业区绿地群落配置和绿化树种选择、企业绿化建设的费用效益分析提供更为科学的依据。结果表明:宝钢厂区植被总碳储量为3992.99～4736.17 t,固碳效益为13507.33～16185.85万元;平均碳密度为45.82～53.27 t/hm2,固碳能力为5.91～6.87t/(hm2.a),高于上海城市森林平均值,但小于中国森林平均值,一定程度上受平均胸径、郁闭度及群落密度等因素影响。厂区在进行绿化建设时,应考虑选择防污且固碳能力强的植物,构建防污固碳兼有型群落,发挥植被的多元功能。     

氧化塘水质预测研究进展

本文讨论了氧化塘的净化污水机理和水质变化特点。提出了用于进行氧化塘水质预测的二维水质模型。探讨了氧化塘水质预测研究的发展趋势。     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.     

DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ON THE DANUBE AND THE PLATTE1

ABSTRACT: Two case studies highlighting the institutional arrangements and decision-making processes used to attempt to allocate water on large scale river systems in two countries are presented. In both cases the implementation of river plans has been blocked by conflicts between those who wish to use water for irrigation, hydropower, or municipal purposes and those who wish to maintain instream flows for fish and wildlife. To date conflict has blocked the implementation of a large hydropower scheme on the Danube River, downstream from Vienna, Austria, and the construction of municipal and agricultural projects, as well as the relicensing of an existing hydropower facility on the Platte River in Nebraska. Analysis of the decision-making processes and institutional settings of both cases led to the identification of problem areas and development of recommendations that would support the achievement of compromise solutions for management.     

APPLICATION OF A SEDIMENT ROUTING MODEL TO A MIDDLE EUROPEAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model that computes sediment yield due to sheet and rill erosion at the outlet of a large watershed requires daily precipitation and the soil, topographic, and vegetative characteristics of the watershed. An important problem, particularly in a large watershed, is the transport of sediment produced in the sub-watersheds to the outlet of the whole watershed. This problem is approached mathematically by a sediment routing model that is used as a component of the total model.     

MODEL FOR PREDICTING TRANSPORT OF PESTICIDES AND THEIR METABOLITES IN THE UNSATURATED ZONE1

ABSTRACT: A finite element model based on Galerkin's upstream weighted residual technique was developed to predict the simultaneous convective-dispersion transport and transformations of pesticides and their metabolites in the unsaturated zone. Transformations of the parent compound and its metabolites were assumed to be first-order reactions for oxidation and hydrolysis, while adsorption of the pesticide species (parent compound and metabolites) to the soil components was assumed to be represented by a linear equilibrium (Freundlich type) isotherm. Volatilization and plant root uptake of pesticides in the solution phase were neglected in the analysis. The proposed model was used to simulate the transport and transformation of aldicarb and its metabolites, aldicarb sulfoxide and aldicarb sulfone, in the soil profile. Several examples are used to demonstrate the accuracy, validity, and applicability of the proposed model. Simulated results indicate that the proposed model can potentially be used to estimate the mass flux of water, and pesticide and pesticide metabolite concentrations in the subsurface environment. However, further verification of the model against actual field data is needed to fully demonstrate the model's potential.     

A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

A modeling assessment of the thermal regime for an urban sport fishery

Water temperature is almost certainly a limiting factor in the maintenance of a self-sustaining rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss, formerlySalmo gairdneri) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) fishery in the lower reaches of the Cache la Poudre River near Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. Irrigation diversions dewater portions of the river, but cold reservoir releases moderate water temperatures during some periods. The US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was applied to a 31-km segment of the river using readily available stream geometry and hydrological and meteorological data. The calibrated model produced satisfactory water temperature predictions (R ²=0.88,P<0.001, N=49) for a 62-day summer period. It was used to evaluate a variety of flow and nonflow alternatives to keep water temperatures below 23.3°C for the trout. Supplemental flows or reduced diversions of 3 m³/sec would be needed to maintain suitable summer temperatures throughout most of the study area. Such flows would be especially beneficial during weekends when current irrigation patterns reduce flows. The model indicated that increasing the riparian shade would result in little improvement in water temperatures but that decreasing the stream width would result in significant temperature reductions. Introduction of a more thermally tolerant redband trout (Oncorhynchus sp.), or smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) might prove beneficial to the fishery. Construction of deep pools for thermal refugia might also be helpful.