Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Runoff and Soil Erosion Using Mathematical Modeling: Applications in the Mediterranean Region

Three mathematical models, the runoff curve number equation, the universal soil loss equation, and the mass response functions, were evaluated for predicting nonpoint source nutrient loading from agricultural watersheds of the Mediterranean region. These methodologies were applied to a catchment, the gulf of Gera Basin, that is a typical terrestrial ecosystem of the islands of the Aegean archipelago. The calibration of the model parameters was based on data from experimental plots from which edge-of-field losses of sediment, water runoff, and nutrients were measured. Special emphasis was given to the transport of dissolved and solid-phase nutrients from their sources in the farmers' fields to the outlet of the watershed in order to estimate respective attenuation rates. It was found that nonpoint nutrient loading due to surface losses was high during winter, the contribution being between 50% and 80% of the total annual nutrient losses from the terrestrial ecosystem. The good fit between simulated and experimental data supports the view that these modeling procedures should be considered as reliable and effective methodological tools in Mediterranean areas for evaluating potential control measures, such as management practices for soil and water conservation and changes in land uses, aimed at diminishing soil loss and nutrient delivery to surface waters. Furthermore, the modifications of the general mathematical formulations and the experimental values of the model parameters provided by the study can be used in further application of these methodologies in watersheds with similar characteristics.     

开发基于GIS的城市防震减灾信息系统 --组件对象模型的应用

应用GIS建立城市防震成灾信息系统是一条减轻城市地震灾害的有效途径,而现有的城市防震减灾信息系统中防震减灾专业模型与GIS功能结合不够紧密,因此加强对地震灾害智能计算的研究十分重要。文章分析了城市防震成灾信息系统常用的二次开发方法,阐述了组件对象模型(COM)技术及其在系统开发中的应用方法,论述了应用COM技术开发系统的界面与功能等。     

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.     

青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析

分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析     

What Is a Good Public Participation Process? Five Perspectives from the Public

It is now widely accepted that members of the public should be involved in environmental decision-making. This has inspired many to search for principles that characterize good public participation processes. In this paper we report on a study that identifies discourses about what defines a good process. Our case study was a forest planning process in northern New England and New York. We employed Q methodology to learn how participants characterize a good process differently, by selecting, defining, and privileging different principles. Five discourses, or perspectives, about good process emerged from our study. One perspective emphasizes that a good process acquires and maintains popular legitimacy. A second sees a good process as one that facilitates an ideological discussion. A third focuses on the fairness of the process. A fourth perspective conceptualizes participatory processes as a power struggle—in this instance a power play between local landowning interests and outsiders. A fifth perspective highlights the need for leadership and compromise. Dramatic differences among these views suggest an important challenge for those responsible for designing and carrying out public participation processes. Conflicts may emerge about process designs because people disagree about what is good in specific contexts.     

Evaluating Nonpoint Pollution Policy Using a Tightly Coupled Spatial Decision Support System

Policy makers often must rely on the cumulative impact of independent actions taken by local landowners to achieve environmental goals. The connection between policy, regulation, and local action, however, is often not well understood and, thus, the impact of proposed policies may be difficult to predict. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy scenarios for agricultural set aside programs (e.g., the conservation reserve program administered by the United States Department of Agriculture) in reducing nonpoint pollution. Two alternative policy scenarios are developed and analyzed; one based on the erodibility index (detachment), the other sediment yield (transport). An estimate of the cumulative impact of associated land use change on nonpoint pollution is made using the AGNPS distributed parameter watershed model. This work is completed within the Cypress Creek watershed in southern Illinois. An analysis of the resulting data suggests that the most efficacious regulatory strategy for achieving nonpoint water pollution goals depends, in part, on place-specific land use patterns. This conclusion provides a solid argument for place-based regulatory strategies.     

Using Multicriteria Methods in Environmental Planning and Management

In environmental planning and decision processes several alternatives are analyzed in terms of multiple noncommensurate criteria, and many different stakeholders with conflicting preferences are involved. Based on our experience in real-life applications, we discuss how multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be used successfully in such processes. MCDA methods support these processes by providing a framework for collecting, storing, and processing all relevant information, thus making the decision process traceable and transparent. It is therefore possible to understand and explain why, under several conflicting preferences, a particular decision was made. The MCDA framework also makes the requirements for new information explicit, thus supporting the allocation of resources for the process.     

A Multimethodological Approach for the Sustainable Management of Perifluvial Wetlands of the Po River (Italy)

/ Marginal aquatic systems (wetlands) of the Po River (Italy) have become the target of a renewed interest because of their value for recreation, natural reserves, and deposits of sand. To preserve these sites, wise management must be the objective of local administrations. In this paper a strategy for the sustainable use of 11 wetlands is presented. It uses simple economic analysis and multiple criteria techniques and provides suggestions to promote sustainability in terms of conservation of natural resources, economic self-sufficiency, and minimization of potential conflicts about the use of the wetlands. In the understanding that sustainability is framed in a long-term perspective, stability analysis is also considered and performed by means of loop analysis, a qualitative technique. Conditions for stability are then discussed about management opportunities.