基于事故理论的城市轨道交通风险评价模型研究

笔者分析了城市轨道交通事故,在分析我国其他行业事故分类的基础上,确定城市轨道交通事故分类标准,即重大事故、大事故、险性事故和一般事故,并将不同事故分类情况及专家判断评分,按事故的大小不同换算成可以计算的计算尺度,根据事故种类不同计算出事故折算因子,根据风险理论的评价方法,建立了地铁风险评价模型,对地铁的危险性进行量化定级,并通过具体实例进行综合分析评价,该风险评价模型具有一定的工程意义。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

基于因素重构分析法和主成分分析法的企业安全文化评价模型

针对当前安全文化评价领域存在的评价方法相对简单、主观性较强等问题,基于企业安全文化的人本主体,设计以企业决策层、管理层、执行层为主体的企业安全文化指标体系;充分利用因素重构分析法和主成分分析法在数据处理上的各种优势,建立适应指标体系特征并考虑数据约束条件的企业安全文化评价模型;通过实例分析加以验证。该模型为解决企业安全文化评价中指标体系庞大复杂、样本空间小、缺少可以直接利用的历史数据等难题给出了一条具有可操作性的路径。     

灾变预测在企业安全事故预测中的应用

简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点及其建模过程,并将其应用于企业安全事故预测之中.经检验,模型的精度等级为好,模型的预测结果可靠,对于企业安全事故的预测有一定帮助.     

城市海岸带环境管理模式优化研究——以青岛市胶州湾为例

我国的海洋污染日益严重,政府加大海洋环境保护力度势在必行。科学、有效的海洋环境管理对保护环境、提高资源利用效率起着非常重要的作用。但海洋环境并不是一维线性的系统,涉及系统的多维耦合,而海岸带又是与人类活动息息相关的重要部分。本文尝试以青岛市胶州湾海岸带环境管理模式为例,构建包含有"经济-人口-资源-环境-安全-行政(EPRESA)"六个子系统的多维耦合系统模型,并绘制出总流图,然后以此为管理模式的优化提供前提性分析,提出海岸带综合管理模式优化的对策建议。本研究认为,要改善现有的海岸带环境管理体系,应该制定综合性管理政策,建立可持续的融资机制,推进海岸带灾害与风险管理以及引导利益相关者参与管理。     

Integrated model for renewable energy planning in Turkey

All economic sectors are associated with energy use; therefore, government organizations aim to supply sustainable energy for human needs and economic growth. In particular, increased environmental concerns of the public in Turkey have impacted policymaking for renewable energy (RE) management in Turkey. The primary objective for RE sources of the Turkish Ministry of Energy is to ensure that 30% of the share of electricity production is from RE resources in 2023. In this paper, the integrated multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model is presented to determine effective allocation of RE supply for seven different geographical regions in Turkey for the period of 2017 to 2024. The integrated model consists of two different stages. The first stage involves qualitative evaluations of RE sources for seven geographical regions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine criteria priorities and overall ratings of geographical regions across determined criteria for RE sources are computed. The second stage of the integrated model consists of a multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model. The proposed multi-objective linear programming model is coded in MPL (Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using the GUROBI 5.1.0 solver. The output of the integrated model presents the total supply amount of RE sources for geographical regions in planning period. The ε-constraints method is applied to compute the total supply amount of RE from geographical regions for the period of 2017 to 2024. In this study, a systematic decision-making model is generated to allocate renewable energy sources to the geographical regions. The presented model integrates qualitative evaluations and quantitative parameters of different geographical regions to determine the optimal supply amount of RE. The obtained results are consistent with the potential quantities of RE alternatives in geographical regions, regional specifications, and social requirements.     

A land suitability model for the evaluation of land-use change

A land suitability model was developed to provide the planner with a quantitative tool for assessing the environmental limitations on proposed land-use changes in the area surrounding Lake Monroe in southern Indiana. The model incorporates a weighting procedure that allows the environmental evaluation of a decision to convert the present land use to another category. The data base for the model was assembled by a multidisciplinary team. A case study is included, which illustrates the advantages and limitations of the land suitability model as it is applied to the evaluation of a site for the Alumni Family Camp.     

FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT: SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS' ATTITUDES AND APPROACHES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of floodplain management are changing in the United States. There has been a gradual shift in emphasis from “flood control” to “management” of the floodplain. The complexities of multilevel governmental involvement in floodplain management demand an analysis of a new means to coordinate these efforts. It is the intent of this paper to discuss the role of the Corps of Engineers in this area and the problems the Corps has encountered in its endeavors. The occurrence of these problems indicates that there is a need to strengthen the federal role to ensure a comprehensive view of floodplain management.     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.