Failure mode and effect analysis using regret theory and PROMETHEE under linguistic neutrosophic context

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), which aims to identify and assess potential failure modes in a system, has been widely utilized in diverse areas for improving and enhancing the performance of systems due to it is a powerful and useful risk and reliability assessment instrument. However, the conventional FMEA approach has been suffered several criticisms for it has some shortcomings, such as unable to handle ambiguous and uncertain information, neglect the relative weights of risk criteria, and without considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. To ameliorate these limitations, this paper aims at establishing a hybrid risk ranking model of FMEA via combing linguistic neutrosophic numbers, regret theory, and PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) approach. In the presented model, linguistic neutrosophic numbers are adopted to capture decision-makers’ evaluation regarding the failure modes on each risk criterion. A modified PROMETHEE approach based on regret theory is presented to obtain the risk priority of failure modes considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Moreover, a maximizing deviation model and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference similar to ideal solution) are separately applied to derive the weights of risk criteria and decision-makers. Finally, a numerical example relating to the supercritical water gasification system is employed to implement the presented method, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model are validated by the results derived from a sensitivity and comparison analysis.     

基于复合治理理论的基层应急管理模式优化*

为弥补传统基层应急管理模式的短板,解决信息壁垒、协调困难、公众参与不足等问题。从复合性视角出发,阐述复合治理理论内涵,探讨复合治理与应急管理在主体、思维、过程、空间、目标上的契合性,并进一步分析基层应急管理的现实背景和困境,进而构建基于复合治理理论的基层应急管理模式,阐明模式基本结构和工作流程,最终提出理念树立、平台搭建、机制保障、队伍建设、制度安排、文化营造、技术支撑方面的优化路径。结果表明:复合治理理论的应用可以加强基层应急管理能力,促进多元主体协同共治。     

CFD simulations of dust dispersion in the 1 m3 explosion vessel

According to standard procedures, flammability and explosion parameters for dusts and dust mixtures are evaluated in 20 L and/or 1 m³ vessels, with equivalent results provided a correct ignition delay time (60 ms in the 20 L vessel; 600 ms in the 1 m³ vessel). In this work, CFD simulations of flow field and dust concentration distribution in the 1 m³ spherical vessel are performed, and the results compared to the data previously obtained for the 20 L. It has been found that in the 1 m³ vessel, the spatial distribution of the turbulent kinetic energy is lower and much more uniform. Concerning the dust distribution, as in the case of the 20 L, dust is mainly concentrated at the outer zones of the vortices generated inside the vessel. Furthermore, an incomplete feeding is attained, with most of the dust trapped in the perforated annular nozzle. Starting from the maps of dust concentration and turbulent kinetic energy, the deflagration index K_St is calculated in both vessels. In the conditions of the present work, the K_St is found to be 2.4 times higher in the 20 L than in the 1 m³ vessel.     

循环载荷下煤裂隙演化试验研究

为了研究循环载荷下的煤体裂隙演化特征,在不同应力水平和不同频率条件下分别进行煤样破坏力学及声发射试验。结果表明:应力-应变曲线呈疏-密-疏的变化特征,对应的振铃数柱状图呈U型;上限应力点的应变值、累积能量、撞击计数均随循环次数增加而上升,曲线呈倒S型;煤裂隙演化经历了原始裂隙闭合、新生裂隙稳定发育和裂纹贯穿破坏等3个不同阶段;循环载荷的应力水平和加载频率对煤体疲劳寿命的影响具有差异性,对煤体裂隙演化和破坏模式均有明显影响。     

Technological innovation paths toward green industry in China

With the environmental carrying capacity reaching its limits and the decreasing margin benefits of traditional production factors, the green transformation and green development through technological innovations has been a major direction for the future development of Chinese industries. However, the characteristics and heterogeneities of various types of industries call for different approaches regarding technological innovations. How to choose the most effective mode of technological innovation according to the characteristics of a certain industry has been a key issue. This paper measures the green total factor productivity of 32 industrial trades using the Slacks Based Measure(SBM)-DDF method. The effects of three innovation modes in the green transformation of industrial industry, including the independent innovation(Ⅱ), the technology introduction(TI), and the government support(GS), are empirically analyzed based on industry heterogeneity. Results indicate that the green total factor productivities of different industries show significant differences if taking into account the energy input and the undesirable output of pollutant emissions. The green total factor productivities of traditional high input,high pollution, and high energy consumption industrial trades were significantly lower than those with obvious green features. The year of 2009 is a leap year for the industrial green transformation in China. For resource-intensive industries, the II and the GS are the important ways to achieve green transformation. For labor-intensive industries, the TI is the best path to achieve green transformation, while for technology-intensive industries, the II is the primary driving force for the promotion of green developments. In addition, the innovation-compensating effect of the current Chinese environmental regulations to the resource-intensive industries has been revealed. Improving the overall scale and the industrial concentration of the industries is also beneficial for the green transformation of the industries.     

生态脆弱区乡村旅游开发模式研究——以沂蒙山区为例

乡村旅游在实践中正从边缘化向系列化发展。沂蒙山区是全国水土流失重点治理区,针对沂蒙山区乡村旅游资源状况,分析了沂蒙山区发展乡村旅游的市场条件,认为生态脆弱区发展乡村旅游应遵循经济多元复合化发展与内源发展的原则,建构纵向深化与横向附加开发模式,具体提出乡村旅游开发途径,即旅游内容特色化、耦合化,旅游服务网络化、规范化的深化途径与附加旅游教育和旅游养生内容等途径。     

城市水业PPP项目的风险分担研究

公私合伙制（即PPP）模式在城市水业项目中已经得到广泛的应用,公私双方的合作方式和风险分担是PPP项目成功的关键。在不同的合作关系中,公私双方所承担的风险种类和程度都有所不同。因此,只有理顺PPP项目合作方式与风险分担的对应关系,公共部门才能正确选择PPP项目的合作方式和私营合作方。     

农田生态补偿方式的选择及市场运作——基于武汉市383户农户问卷的实证研究

选择交易成本低、具有操作性的补偿方式,实现农田生态产品的市场运作,是农田生态补偿制度实施的关键。利用问卷调查资料,分析了武汉市农户对不同农田生态补偿方式的认知、选择以及其影响因素,在此基础上指出了政府补偿方式在农田生态补偿领域的缺陷及引进市场方式的建议。研究表明:(1)武汉市农户对农田生态补偿的认知程度较低,仅有10.71%的受访农户听说过生态补偿、生态危机等概念;(2)49.02%农户对现行的现金补偿方式不太满意,认为补偿金额太低,94.65%的受访者更倾向于接受更高额度的现金补偿方式;(3)农户对现金、实物、技术(智力)、政策等农田生态补偿方式的选择偏好受其性别、年龄、家庭人口、家庭年收入、家庭中需抚养人口数和文化程度的显著影响。研究提出构建农田生态补偿的交易平台、完善生态环境物品数量化的体系设计和管理模式的多样化是推进农田生态补偿的市场化运作的关键。     

创新体制 |转变发展方式

没有发展方式的转变,我们为环境改善所作的一切努力将成为徒劳！发展方式的转变为什么在中国是“一场深刻的革命”？无序竞争、产能过剩、高耗资源、损害环境的现象有增无减？发展方式的转变,这对于中国是千载难逢的机遇,我们敞开大门,招商引资,引入了社会主义建设需要的许多要素,我们也取得了令世界瞩目的伟大成就。我们的口号是“保增长、保就业、保民生、保稳定”,我们别无选择。其实还有一个视角去观察“中国模式”,即三组动力叠加的发展模式：千万个企业靠内在冲动和外在强制推动这个国家的发展,这是大多数国家共同的特征。我们会清晰地发现,政治文明、文化文明建设是最不需要消耗多大物质财富的     

钢框架厂房火灾后的破坏形态

端部约束不同的构件在火灾中的破坏形态不同,研究整体结构构件在火灾中的破坏形态,可以为钢结构抗火研究与设计提供依据。某钢结构框架厂房发生火灾,大火历时3个多小时,火场最高温度达1000°C以上。火灾后,框架梁均有不同程度的破坏,钢梁端部下翼缘屈曲破坏较普遍;由于钢梁顶没有设置抗剪键,钢梁与顶部的混凝土现浇楼板脱开,火灾后残留有较大的挠屈变形;钢柱在火灾后未有明显的破坏现象,但有侧向变形产生。这些现象与实验室中标准试验的结果不同。