Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949–2013

This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023.     

安徽矿业企业境外资源开发模式研究

为了缓解资源供给压力,保证经济健康与可持续发展,安徽省政府在2008年明确提出要“走出去”开发境外的矿产资源。在国际矿业市场主流资源开发模式研究的基础上,对安徽矿业企业的投资环境进行战略分析,提出安徽省可以将“走出去”分为三个阶段,在每个阶段分别配合实行相应的矿产开发模式以顺利达到开发目标,实现自身发展。     

科技后备人才培养的有关问题探讨

该文分析了国内外人才培养模式的发展和变化,介绍了国家自然科学基金委员会青少年科技活动专项的资助管理模式和其在推动我国青少年科技活动开展中所发挥的作用,并就所资助活动中的典型事例进行了分析.文章最后提出:根据国家发展战略需要,建立人才培养的长效机制;发挥部门优势作好科技后备人才的培养工作;加强科学和教育的结合,共同完善科技人才培养体系;创新人才培养模式,改善青少年科技竞赛类项目;根据学科特点,分别地域条件有针对性地开展青少年科技活动;注重学科交叉,发挥政府部门引导作用;关注国家重大问题和前沿科学进展,有重点地开展青少年科技活动;顺应人才成长的内在客观规律,作好人才培养各环节的衔接.     

再生水利用的水权管理研究

通过再生水利用的现状剖析,对再生水利用的社会经济以及环境效益优势进行总结,从基础设施建设、再生水水质管理、政策法规、市场管理体制机制等角度系统剖析再生水利用存在的问题;在此基础上,针对再生水利用现状,基于水权理论,提出再生水利用的水权管理理念,对再生水水权的概念进行界定,从再生水分散式利用、再生水集中式利用以及再生水集蓄利用3种利用形式进行再生水水权分析,从基础设施建设、再生水水质管理、再生水利用的相关政策法规、市场管理体制机制、再生水利用产业化等角度阐述再生水和用的水权管理作用与意义,综合政府行政管制模式、用水户参与模式、水权市场交易模式等3种水权管理的基本模式,探讨再生水利用的水权管理模式.     

Numerical modelling for effect of water curtain in mitigating toxic gas release

Hydrogen fluoride and ammonia are widely used in chemical industries. Both substances are hazardous and frequently a source of leakage accidents. Since a hydrogen fluoride release accident occurred in Gumi, S. Korea (2012), the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency (KOSHA) has emphasized that special attention and management are needed with respect to toxic substances. For post-release mitigation, a water curtain is known as one of the most effective and economical systems. In this study, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program was used to identify the effect of using a water curtain as a mitigation system for toxic substances that leak out from industrial facilities. Simulations were conducted to analyze how effectively a water curtain could mitigate the dispersion of toxic substances. To verify the simulation's accuracy, the INERIS Ammonia dispersion experiment and Goldfish experiment were simulated and compared. Various water curtains were applied to the simulated field experiment to confirm the mitigation factors with toxic substances. The results show that the simulations and experiments are consistent and that the dispersion of toxic substances can be mitigated by water curtains in certain circumstances.     

A novel Dempster-Shafer theory-based approach with weighted average for failure mode and effects analysis under uncertainty

Risk priority number (RPN) is a commonly-used prioritization method in failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for systemic reliability and safety study. However, conventional RPN confronts wide criticisms, due to the neglect of the uncertainties of experts' opinions. It is important to handle the conflicts among experts' multi-opinions which could be described in imprecise, incomplete or crisp forms in lack of knowledge. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to alleviate and/or eliminate counter-intuitive behaviors against conflicts among multi-opinions under Dempster-Shafer theory. Firstly, the abnormity test for experts’ opinions is undertaken to identify and discard those distinct judgments. Then, an approach to determining the subjective weights of experts is proposed, which is used in weighted average for multi-opinions before calculating RPNs. Finally, the risk priority evaluation on main engine crankcase explosion failure on-board ship is implemented to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach.     

危险化学品泄漏事故泄漏源强反算方法比较研究

比较现有的主要大气源强反算方法,包括Safer实时响应系统中使用的反算方法、基于遗传算法的反算方法、基于最佳摄动量法的反算方法和利用逆向轨迹反演模式的反算方法;对4种反算方法的应用做比较研究,分析各种方法的特点、不足以及适用性,根据各自在实际事件中的应用效果判定算法在应急响应过程的可行性。笔者将牛顿-拉弗森法作为寻根法应用到Safer系统的反算法中,并结合企业生产实际对其应用效果进行验证;结果表明,基于寻根法的Safer反算法反算速度快,结果准确度高,更适用于应急响应过程。同时在各种方法比较的基础上对应急响应应用提出了建议。     

文科背景下安全工程专业建设模式探讨

在总结我国安全专业开设历史和发展的基础上,对安全工程专业建设趋势进行评述;针对目前该专业建设中存在的尤其主要集中于工科院校的问题,积极探索文科环境下安全工程专业建设模式。借鉴其他高校安全工程专业办学经验,从培养模式、师资队伍建设、科研和学术交流、学科发展规划、实验室和社会服务体系建设等方面对中南财经政法大学经法管文科环境下安全工程学科建设的具体措施、规划和初步成效等方面进行了探讨。学校安全工程专业建设模式可为其他高校尤其是文科背景安全工程专业建设提供有益的参考。     

作业场所职业危害防护工作监管模式的设计研究

准确了解某地区作业场所职业危害防护现状,制定科学可行的监管模式,对实际职业危害防护工作意义重大。本文分析了靖江地区作业场所职业危害防护状况尤其是重点行业企业在选址、布局,工艺流程与车间设计、工程防护技术、管理等情况,同时依据工业企业设计卫生标准、建设项目职业病危害评价规范,结合国内外职业病流行病学状况与科学的管理理念,提出职业卫生监管模式,指导职业卫生监管工作实践,本文对其他地区开展作业场所职业卫生工作有参考价值。     

燃料车内氢气泄漏扩散数值模拟研究

基于FULUENT软件的物质传输与反应模块,建立了燃料车内氢气泄漏扩散的数值计算模型.应用模型对储气瓶不同位置的泄漏扩散进行了数值计算,得到了氢气在车内泄漏扩散后的危险区域分布情况.结果表明:氢气瓶上方挡板位置是氢气泄漏扩散后的高浓度区域,泄漏后的氢气在该处容易发生积聚.研究结论可以为车内预警用氢气监测传感器的放置以及氢燃料车的安全设计提供参考.