用物元分析进行水质环境监测优化布点的研究

本文首次提出利用物元分析对水质环境监测优化布点的新方法。在确定了最佳和最次理想点基础上，建立了标准事物和节域事物的物元矩阵。该法具有计算简便、分析合理和容易推广的优点。     

Asymptotics in adaptive cluster sampling

In this article we consider asymptotic properties of the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators under the adaptive cluster sampling variants obtained by selecting the initial sample by simple random sampling without replacement and by unequal probability sampling with replacement. We develop an asymptotic framework, which basically assumes that the number of units in the initial sample, as well as the number of units and networks in the population tend to infinity, but that the network sizes are bounded. Using this framework we prove that under each of the two variants of adaptive sampling above mentioned, both the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators are design-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. In addition we show that the ordinary estimators of their variances are also design-consistent estimators.     

围生期双酚A暴露对子代大鼠脾脏免疫功能的影响

为了研究围生期双酚A(BPA)暴露对子代脾脏免疫功能的影响,选择F344大鼠,按体重随机分为对照、低、中、高4个剂量组(BPA暴露剂量分别为0、4、40、400mg·kg-1·d-1),从雌鼠妊娠第0天开始至子鼠出生后30天,每天灌胃染毒1次,观察子鼠脾脏组织形态学的变化,并采用实时定量PCR检测IL-2、IL-12、IFN-γ、TNF-α4种细胞因子mRNA表达的改变.结果表明,1)与对照组相比,低剂量组子鼠脾重、脾脏指数均显著增加(p<0.05),体重无显著变化(p>0.05);中剂量组子鼠脾脏指数显著增加(p<0.05),体重和脾重无显著变化(p>0.05);高剂量组子鼠体重、脾重均显著降低(p<0.05),脾脏指数无显著变化(p>0.05).2)与对照组相比,各暴露组子鼠脾脏IL-2、IL-12、IFN-γ、TNF-α4种细胞因子mRNA表达均显著降低(p<0.01).以上结果提示,BPA可能能够透过胎盘屏障并通过乳汁传递给子代,降低子代的机体免疫功能.     

Wet deposition chemistry studies at Suva, Fiji, a remote tropical island site in the south Pacific

A field project encompassing wet-only rainwater sampling was initiated as a bilateral Fiji/Australia activity. Normally, biweekly samples were collected, using a wet-only rainwater sampler, and analysed for H⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, NH₄ ⁺, Cl^–, NO₃ ^–, SO₄ ^2–, PO₄ ^3-, methane sulphonic acid, oxalic acid, formic acid and acetic acid. The pH of the rainwater ranged between 5.730 and 4.480 with an average value of 5.176, slightly lower than the pH of unpolluted rainwater saturated with atmospheric CO₂(pH = 5.650). Na⁺and Cl^–were the major ions with average concentrations of 98.15 M and 109.57 M respectively. There is an excellent correlation between the cation sum (average 147.71 eq L^-1) and the anion sum (average 142.12 eq L^-1) attesting to the quality of the data generated. This paper presents the detailed results of the study for a relatively clean remote island site in Suva, Fiji, latitude 18° 09 S, longitude 178° 27 E, height 6 m, and outlines prospects for further work.     

Inclusion of phone use while driving data in predicting distraction-affected crashes

Introduction: Given the tremendous number of lives lost or injured, distracted driving is an important safety area to study. With the widespread use of cellphones, phone use while driving has become the most common distracted driving behavior. Although researchers have developed safety performance functions (SPFs) for various crash types, SPFs for distraction-affected crashes are rarely studied in the literature. One possible reason is the lack of critical distracted behavior information in the commonly used safety data (i.e., roadway inventory, traffic, and crash counts). Recently, the frequency of phone use while driving (referred to as phone use data) is recorded by mobile application companies and has become available to safety researchers. The primary objective of this study is to examine if phone use data can potentially predict distracted-affected crashes. Method: The authors first integrated phone use data with roadway inventory, traffic, and crash data in Texas. Then, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was applied to assess the significance of the feature - phone use while driving - for predicting the number of distraction-affected crashes on a road segment. Further, this study developed two SPFs for distraction-affected crashes with and without the phone use data, separately. Both SPFs were assessed in terms of model fitting and prediction performances. Results: RF results rank the frequency of phone use as an important factor contributing to the number of distraction-affected crashes. Performance evaluations indicated that the inclusion of phone use data in the SPFs consistently improved both fitting and prediction abilities to predict distracted-affected crashes. Practical Applications: The phone use data provide new insights into the safety analyses of distraction-affected crashes, which cannot be achieved by only using the conventional roadway inventory and crash data. Therefore, safety researchers and practitioners are encouraged to incorporate the emerging data sources in reducing distraction-affected crashes.     

环境监测在环境影响评价中的影响分析

环境监测贯穿于整个环境影响评价体系中,环境影响评价中的评价初期、建设期、运行期以及后评价期,均由环境监测数据来支撑结果,是环境影响评价的技术基础,同时具有较强的监督功能。     

阜新市生态地质环境质量模糊综合评价

生态地质环境质量评价,实为生态地质环境的适宜性评价。本文以地貌类型、森林覆盖率、人口密度等16个指标为主要影响因子,确定了生态地质环境质量评价指标的单因素评价模型和评价指标体系。采用模糊数学方法,对阜新市生态地质环境质量进行了综合评价。结果表明阜新地区生态地质环境质量总体良好。经验证,定量评价与定性评价结果较吻合,证明该套基于模糊综合评判技术的生态地质环境质量的定量评价是切实可行的．结论是可信的。     

基于城市面板数据的PM2.5对公共健康的影响

基于Grossman健康生产函数,利用2008~2017年全国280个城市的面板数据,以PM_2.5为空气污染的代表指标,探讨中国空气污染与公共健康之间的动态关系,考虑到公共健康的空间效应,采用空间计量模型进行实证研究.结果表明,在未考虑空间效应的情况下,PM_2.5浓度每增加1%,城市总人口死亡率增加0.040%;考虑空间效应后,PM_2.5浓度每增加1%,城市总人口死亡率增加0.0606%.PM_2.5污染对公共健康具有显著的负面影响,由于存在空间溢出效应,PM_2.5污染对城市公共健康水平的影响程度增加,表明忽视空间相关性的存在,会低估PM_2.5污染对公众健康的影响;而经济发展水平的提高以及产业结构的调整对公共健康有较强的改善作用.     

秸秆及生物炭还田对油菜/玉米轮作系统碳平衡和生态效益的影响

在油菜/玉米轮作下,研究不同秸秆与生物炭还田方式对农田生态系统碳平衡和收益的影响,阐明秸秆和生物炭还田的固碳作用.在重庆国家紫色土肥力与肥料效益长期监测基地,通过油菜和玉米两季作物田间定位试验,设置了常规施肥(CK)、秸秆还田(CS)、生物炭还田(BC)、秸秆+速腐剂还田(CSD)、秸秆+生物炭1∶1还田(CSBC)5个处理,测定了秸秆与生物炭还田下土壤碳累积排放量,并结合实地调研数据,从土壤呼吸碳排放、土壤碳库及作物碳库角度兼顾考虑农业成本投入,分析了秸秆与生物炭还田下农田生态系统碳排放、碳固定、碳汇效应和经济环境效益.结果表明:(1)两季作物的土壤碳累积排放量均高于对照(CK),其中秸秆直接还田(CS)处理和秸秆+速腐剂还田(CSD)处理显著(P0.05);(2)与CK对比,秸秆及生物炭还田均能提高两季作物产量与生态系统净初级生产力(NPP),增产1.49%~3.92%,NPP提高了4.44%~17.90%,且秸秆+速腐剂处理(CSD)的两季作物产量与NPP均为最大;(3)各处理(除CK外)均为系统净固碳量正值,表现为"碳汇";在油菜季和玉米季两季中,系统净固碳量最高的分别为秸秆+速腐剂还田(CSD,9.05 t·hm~(-2))和生物炭还田(BC,10.75 t·hm-2)处理,而碳排放量最低的均是生物炭(BC)处理,比CK减少62.69%~81.86%.(4)油菜季的秸秆直接还田(CS)处理的两季作物产投比最高,而两季作物的BC处理均会降低产投比,但其碳排放交易量最高(466.95~561.22元·hm-2).(5)两季作物的BC处理均会提高碳生产力(CP),而BC处理的经济效益(CJ)与生态效益(CE)均显著低于其他处理.秸秆直接还田增加了系统的经济效益和生态效益,而生物炭还田降低了系统的经济效益和生态效益.     

模拟日光照射下土霉素的复合光化学转化动力学及环境归趋

环境水体中存在众多可解离的有机污染物,而不同的解离形态表现出相异的环境行为,如光化学反应活性和归趋.本文以土霉素(OTC)为例,研究了水中可解离化合物的表观光降解、光氧化等复合光化学转化动力学,并揭示了其相应的环境光化学归趋和贡献.模拟日光(λ290nm)照射下,OTC的光降解遵循准一级反应动力学,光解速率常数(k)对pH表现出明显的依赖性.这是由于随pH值升高,解离形态(i)从OTCH_2~0、OTCH~-到OTC~(2-)渐变,相应的k_i和量子产率(Φ_i)显著增大.竞争动力学实验进一步表明,·OH和~1O_2均可以氧化降解OTC,且降解速率随着pH的增大而加快.这与3种解离形态不同的去质子化程度和氧化反应活性有关.去质子化增加化合物的电子密度,利于活性氧物种的亲电攻击,从而促进光氧化反应.基于以上OTC解离形态的不同光化学转化活性,评估了环境表层水体(pH=6~9)中的复合光化学转化半减期(t_(1/2,E)).t_(1/2,E)值依赖于基质pH和季节,北纬45°晴天正午,t_(1/2,E)在0.131 h(仲夏,pH=9)到3.63 h(仲冬,pH=6)之间.多数情况下,OTC的表观光解是其最主要的光化学转化途径,~1O_2氧化次之,而·OH氧化的贡献非常小.以上结果证明了OTC不同解离形态具有不同的光化学转化动力学.因此,为了准确评价水环境中抗生素等可解离有机污染物的光化学归趋和风险,有必要综合考虑所有解离形态的复合光化学行为.