《京都》15年后:分阶段减排政策与“绿色悖论”问题

低碳经济的政策分析,通常囿于单一国家层面的局部均衡结果,较少考虑到全球整体行动的外部影响,但从《联合国气候变化框架公约》建立以来的全球一致减排行动,却产生了一些意料之外的负面效果。本文通过梳理《京都议定书》签订以来,全球低碳经济合作中遇到的新挑战,以及碳交易市场的建设状况,采用制度分析与新古典框架下的市场均衡分析方法,讨论了全球一致减排行动所触发的"绿色悖论"问题。研究发现,造成"绿色悖论"的主要原因,一方面是由于国际合作存在制度设计上的缺陷,《京都议定书》及其关键性的附件一,将重点放在如何限制发达工业国的减排设计上,但却忽视了发展中国家在协议期内有可能出现的增排问题,以及发达国家向发展中国家污染转移的碳泄漏等问题;另一方面,当对不可再生资源的使用征税、以及对其替代品进行补贴时,将会导致在当前期对于化石能源的加速开采,并可能导致对同时期的化石燃料替代品的其他可再生资源的开采速度也大幅度加快,造成了在双重加速开采下的全球绿色福利损失以及CO2排放量的急剧升高,化石能源消费与温室气体排放面临到比协议签署前更为严峻,甚至与全球合作减排框架的设计初衷相悖的结果。研究结果表明,非全局性的减排公约和分阶段的减排政策,是造成"绿色悖论"现象的重要条件,缺少了大量发展中国家和一些重要工业国的缔约,使得负面的环境外部性难以克服;同时,减排任务和责任有所区别的分阶段设计,会把在未来行动期内可预见到的更高地化石能源使用成本转嫁到当前的行动期,造成短时间内资源与环境的迅速破坏。但本文的研究也表明,社会最优经济与对可再生能源进行补贴是克服"绿色悖论"现象的两条可行路径,且需要有与其相匹配的政府政策的支持。由此,本文的主要政策建议是,中国需要加强在国际气候公约中的影响力,提升自身话语权;以碳税政策作为发展低碳经济制度设计的主要政策工具;加快技术进步、提高能源使用效率,对于可再生能源研发进行补贴;根据国情不断优化碳税税率,并适时调整与其相匹配的新能源补贴等相关政策。     

中国省际碳排放效率的空间计量

本文基于至强有效前沿的最小距离法测算了我国1998-2011年的省际CO2排放效率,这种方法的优点是效率达到生产前沿后在投入或产出方面所做出的改动最小。然后在此基础上分析了我国省际碳排放效率的区域差异性以及空间相关性,最后运用1998-2011年我国30个省份的面板数据,建立空间面板数据模型,对我国碳排放效率的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:样本期内,我国省际碳排放效率表现出较大的省际差异性,东部沿海省份的平均碳排放效率显著高于内陆省份。分地区看,东部地区的碳排放效率走势相对平稳,全国及中西部地区的碳排放效率则呈现出"U"型曲线的走势,并且东部地区的碳排放效率明显要高于中西部地区;空间自相关Moran’s I检验显示,省际碳排放效率在空间上存在着显著的空间自相关性,具有明显的集群趋势,而空间LISA图则表明省际碳排放效率不仅具有空间依赖性的特征,同时也有空间异质性的表现;经济规模、工业结构和能源消费结构对碳排放效率造成了较大的负面影响,对外开放、企业所有制结构以及政府干预对碳排放效率有正向影响,而产业结构对碳排放效率的影响则不显著。因此,对于将来中国提高碳排放效率工作的重点应该是实现经济增长模式由粗放型向集约型的转变,着重调整工业结构和能源消费结构,同时进一步提升对外开放的质量,加强政府的碳减排工作力度。     

基于低碳经济理论视角的现代循环农业发展战略与对策

随着资源的紧张和环境的恶化,发展现代循环农业对提高资源利用率和环境保护具有至关重要的意义。因此本文从低碳经济理论的内涵与发展、现代循环农业与主要技术对策、绿色农业视野三个层面的资源循环利用来综合分析如何发展现代农业。     

被动加标在水生生态风险评价中的应用——以多氯联苯分配系数的测定为例

准确的水生生态风险评价需要可靠的毒性数据,而其获取要求在一定时间范围内,水体中污染物的浓度保持恒定。对疏水性有机污染物进行水体生物毒性测试时,通常采用有机溶剂加标,然而该方式可能因为污染物的挥发和降解、容器壁吸附、生物摄取等问题,水体中污染物浓度持续下降,导致污染物的浓度-效应关系难以明确。近期为了克服这些问题,被动加标用于替代溶剂加标,通过污染物在加标体系中平衡分配来维持精确和恒定的水体浓度,同时还可通过测定加标聚合物中污染物的浓度来监测水体浓度。首先介绍了被动加标方法及其材料选择,讨论了该方法在生态风险评价中的主要应用,包括分配系数的测定、体外细胞测试、体内生物积累及毒性测试,以及沉积物毒性评价等。然后,以测定代表污染物多氯联苯在聚二甲基硅氧烷与水间的分配系数为例,详细说明被动加标的操作流程。最后,讨论了被动加标方法的优缺点,并对其在水生生态风险中的应用前景进行了展望。     

有机化学品不同温度下(过冷)液体蒸气压预测模型的建立与评价

(过冷)液体蒸气压(PL)是评价化学品在环境中分配、迁移和归趋行为的重要参数。PL具有较强的温度依附性。发展一种能够精确预测不同环境温度下化学品PL的方法,有助于填补化学品生态风险评估的大量数据缺失。本研究收集整理了661种有机化合物在不同温度下(200~830 K)共计10 478个log PL值。在此基础上,采用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归和支持向量机(SVM)方法,构建了PL的线性和非线性预测模型。结果表明:2种模型均具有良好的拟合度、稳健性及预测能力,SVM模型的预测性能略高于PLS模型(PLS:R2adj.tra=0.912,RMSEtra=0.477,Q2ext=0.910;SVM:R2adj.tra=0.997,RMSEtra=0.092,Q2ext=0.967)。机理分析表明,温度是影响PL的主要因素,温度越高,蒸气压越大;其次,X1sol也影响PL大小,X1sol用来描述分子间的色散作用,分子间色散力越小,蒸气压越大;此外,化合物的氢键个数、极性和分子构型等因素也影响PL大小。采用Wiliams plot方法表征了PLS模型应用域。所建立的模型可用来预测烷烃、烯烃、醇、酮、羧酸、苯、酚、联苯、卤代芳香烃、含N化合物及含S化合物在不同温度下的PL数据。     

Carbon sequestration and soil microbes in purple paddy soil as affected by long-term fertilization

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration impacts on food security and climate change and may be affected by soil microbes in fertilized croplands. A 12-year field experiment under the rice–wheat system was used to evaluate the effect of the long-term fertilization on the SOC accumulation, culturable soil microbes, and their interaction in purple paddy soil. Results showed that varied fertilizations resulted in a significant increase of the SOC content and stock in the plow layer, as well as rise in populations of major soil microbes, including bacteria, actinomycetes, and fungi compared with no fertilization. Soil with combined application of chemical NPK fertilizer and organic amendment (pig manure or rice straw return) on average had the highest organic carbon content and stock, amounts of bacteria, actinomycetes, and fungi, which were 7.8%, 5.8%, 75.8%, 130.5%, and 16.2% higher than the NPK fertilization alone. Fertilization differentially altered populations of the functional anaerobic bacteria in paddy soil. With the combined application of chemical NPK fertilizer and organic amendment, soil displayed higher amounts of anaerobic cellulolytic bacteria, anaerobic fermentative bacteria, hydrogen-producing acetogen, methanogenic bacteria, denitrifying bacteria, and sulphate-reducing bacteria than that with the NPK fertilization alone or no fertilization. Populations of all three major soil microbes showed significantly positive correlations with the SOC content, indicating their interaction was of mutual promotion. Data suggest that the combined application of the NPK fertilizer with organic amendment especially by the rice straw return is recommended to sustain the soil biological fertility and mitigate the emission of the greenhouse gas by the SOC sequestration in purple paddy soil.     

石墨相氮化碳光催化剂的制备、改性及其在水处理中的应用

作为典型的非金属半导体光催化剂,类石墨相氮化碳(g-C3N4)由于具有物理化学性质稳定、能带结构适宜、制备成本低廉等优势,近年来受到广泛关注.本文综述了石墨相氮化碳的基本结构特性、常用制备方法以及结构改性策略,对其在水处理中的应用进行了总结,并对g-C3N4未来的发展趋势进行了展望,以期为氮化碳新材料开发及其在水处理方...     

The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment

Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.     

关于焦化行业CO2排放核算方法的探讨

本文分析了适用于焦化行业通用CO₂排放核算方法,在此基础上结合我国焦化行业工艺和原料的特征,采用排放因子法和物料衡算法等两种方法对10家典型焦化企业CO₂排放进行核算。结果表明:物料衡算法能很好地反映不同类型焦化企业的排放特征;排放因子法对我国独立焦化企业存在碳排放量系统性高估的可能。为此,建议我国焦化企业可借鉴德国焦化企业的碳核算经验,采用碳平衡法对不同类型的焦化企业(单元)的碳排放量进行核算,并完善相关的统计和监测技术。     

Wood carbon content of tree species in Eastern China: interspecific variability and the importance of the volatile fraction

Data on the mass density and carbon content of tree organs, and in particular stem wood, are essential for accurate assessments of forest carbon sequestration. However most available data, including that for East Asia, has neglected the volatile C fraction. Wood samples were collected and assayed for C content from 14 native tree species in Jilin Province, NE China. C content showed statistically significant variation among species, ranging from 48.4% to 51.0%. The volatile C fraction was non-negligible, averaging 2.2%, and showed high variation among species. As found in prior studies, wood C content was appreciably higher in conifer than hardwood (angiosperm) species (50.8+/-0.1% vs. 49.5+/-0.2%, respectively). Wood carbon density (gC/cm(3)) showed very high inter-specific variation, due mainly to differences in wood specific gravity. Our analyses, in conjunction with recently published data from North America, indicate a global mean value of 47.5+/-0.5% wood C content exclusive of volatile C; the widely used 50% figure corresponds more closely to total wood C inclusive of the volatile fraction. Failure to include volatile C or to use species- or higher-taxon-specific C content values in forest C assessments is likely to introduce biases on the order approximately 4-6%. In addition, the stocks and flows of the volatile C fraction in wood are in themselves an important and sorely neglected aspect of forest C processes likely to be strongly impacted by harvests and other management practices.