Can oil prices help estimate commodity futures prices? The cases of copper and silver

There is an extensive literature on modeling the stochastic process of commodity futures. It has been shown that models with several risk factors are able to adequately fit both the level and the volatility structure of observed transactions with reasonable low errors.     

Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin1

Gebremichael, Mekonnen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, and Menberu M. Bitew, 2010. Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):361-366. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00428.x. Abstract: Given the increasingly higher resolution and data accessibility, satellite precipitation products could be useful for hydrological application in the Nile River Basin, which is characterized by lack of reasonably dense hydrological in situ sensors and lack of access to the existing dataset. However, in the absence of both extreme caution and research results for the Nile basin, the satellite rainfall (SR) products may not be used, or may even be used erroneously. We identify two steps that are critical to enhance the value of SR products for hydrological applications in the Nile basin. The first step is to establish representative validation sites in the Nile basin. The validation site will help to quantify the errors in the different kinds of SR products, which will be used to select the best products for the Nile basin, include the errors in decision making, and design strategies to minimize the errors. Using rainfall measurements collected from the unprecedented high-density rain gauge network over a small region within the Nile basin, we indicate that SR estimates could be subject to significant errors, and quantification of estimation errors by way of establishing validation sites is critically important in order to use the SR products. The second step is to identify the degree of hydrologic model complexity required to obtain more accurate hydrologic simulation results for the Nile basin when using SR products as input. The level of model complexity may depend on basin size and SR algorithm, and further research is needed to spell out this dependence for the Nile basin.     

煤炭资源开采环境污染物影子价格的估计——基于安徽煤炭企业的调查数据

环境污染物的影子价格体现了污染物的边际减排成本,是政府制定公共环境政策的重要依据。本文在环境技术的基础上,扩展了传统的产出方向性距离函数方法,进而构建了能够将多种环境污染物的影子价格进行综合估测新的影子价格模型。采用这种新的模型方法和安徽煤炭开采和洗选企业的样本数据,对煤炭资源开采利用过程中排放的三种主要环境污染物——废水、废气和固体废物的影子价格进行了估计。结果发现,2009年,安徽煤炭开采和洗选企业所排放的废水、废气和固体废物的平均影子价格分别为0.021 6万元/t、0.031 37万元/t和0.178 48万元/t。这三种环境污染物的影子价格存在差异,反映出安徽煤炭开采企业处理不同环境污染物所面临的环境成本是不同的。环境行为监管者在做出环境规制决策前要充分考虑到这个前提。     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

汶川地震滑坡的分布特点及最大震中距分析

"5·12"汶川大地震诱发了大规模以滑坡、崩塌为主的地质灾害,这些震害地区改变了原有的地貌形态,形成多处堰塞湖,毁坏民房和道路,使之成为严重的次生滑坡灾害危险区域.以成都市的都江堰市、彭州市、崇州市、邛崃市、大邑县地震区为研究区,分析了滑坡分布与震区地质地貌条件和宏观烈度的统计关系.在确定宏观震中位置的基础上,采用最大地震滑坡震中距方法研究了不同规模滑坡的分布特点,并得到了线性分布的规律.     

Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates, often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative, a further complication may arise due to the temporal dynamics of groundwater flow, which may cause a concentration measurement to be not temporally representative. This paper presents results from a numerical modeling study focusing on temporal variations of the groundwater flow direction. “Measurements” are obtained from point information representing observation wells installed along control planes using different well frequencies and configurations. Results of the scenario simulations show that temporally variable flow conditions can lead to significant temporal fluctuations of the concentration and thus are a substantial source of uncertainty for point measurements. Temporal variation of point concentration measurements may be as high as the average concentration determined, especially near the plume fringe, even when assuming a homogeneous distribution of the hydraulic conductivity. If a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field is present, the concentration variability due to a fluctuating groundwater flow direction varies significantly within the control plane and between the different realizations. Determination of contaminant mass fluxes is also influenced by the temporal variability of the concentration measurement, especially for large spacings of the observation wells. Passive dosimeter sampling is found to be appropriate for evaluating the stationarity of contaminant plumes as well as for estimating average concentrations over time when the plume has fully developed. Representative sampling has to be performed over several periods of groundwater flow fluctuation. For the determination of mass fluxes at heterogeneous sites, however, local fluxes, which may vary considerably along a control plane, have to be accounted for. Here, dosimeter sampling in combination with time integrated local water flux measurements can improve mass flux estimates under dynamic flow conditions.     

MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Comparison of Point Estimation Techniques in the Spatial Analysis of Radium-226, Radium-228 and Potassium-40 in Soil

Many environmental surveys require the implementation of estimation techniques to determine the spatial distribution of the variable being investigated. Traditional methods of interpolation and estimation, for example, inverse distance squared and triangulation often ignore features of the data set such as anisotropy which may have a significant impact on the quality of the estimates produced. Geostatistical techniques may offer an improved method of estimation by modelling the spatial continuity of the variable using semi-variogram analysis. The theoretical model fitted to the semi-variogram is then used in the assignation of weighting factors to the samples surrounding the location to be estimated. This paper outlines the results of a comparison between three common estimation methods, polygonal, triangulation and inverse distance squared and a geostatistical method, in the estimation of soil radionuclide activities. The geostatistical estimation method known as kriging performed best over a range of parameters used to test the performance of the methods. Kriging exhibited the best correlation between actual and estimated values, the narrowest error distribution and the lowest overall estimation error. Polygonal estimation was best at reproducing the data set distribution. Conditional bias was evident in all the methods, low values being over-estimated and high values being under-estimated.