Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Identifying the largest individual sample value from a two-way composite sampling design

Composite sampling techniques for identifying the largest individual sample value seem to be cost effective when the composite samples are internally homogeneous. However, since it is not always possible to form homogeneous composite samples, these methods can lead to higher costs than expected. In this paper we propose a two-way composite sampling design as a way to improve on the cost effectiveness of the methods available to identify the largest individual sample value.     

单甲脒饱和蒸气压的测定和估算

用气体的法测单甲脒在１５,２５,３５和４５℃时的饱和蒸气分别为０．２０２,０．５５４６,１．９５,６．２９Ｐａ;亨利常数计算值分别为６．３０×１０＾－４,１．６７×１０＾－３,５．６８×１０＾０－３和１．７８×１０＆－２,根据Ｃｌａｕｓｉｕｓ Ｃｌａｐｅｙｒｏｎ方程求出单甲脒在常温下气化热为８９．２ｋＪ．ｍｏｌ＾－１。     

北京市空气质量及其与能源消费结构的动态关联

运用模糊集理论中的Euclidean权距离评价2002—2011年北京市空气质量。根据最大隶属度原则确定空气质量等级值,结合灰色系统理论中的关联动态矩阵分析法,研究北京市主要大气污染物与9种能源消费因子的动态关系。结果表明,2002、2004—2007年北京市空气质量处于Ⅲ级,2003、2008—2011年处于Ⅱ级,空气质量由劣到优的年份排序为2002、2011、2010、2006、2007、2009、2008、2005、2004、2003年,2003、2008年空气质量得到改善,2009年以来有所恶化;燃料油、焦炭和煤炭是造成北京市大气污染的前3位能源,天然气是最清洁的能源;同种能源与不同污染物的关联程度相似;同种能源与污染物在不同时间段的关联序基本不变,不同能源因子分别表现出"缓慢上升"、"逐渐升高"、"水平S"型和"倒U"型4种态势;燃料油与大气污染物"同增同减",大气污染物与燃料油正相关;天然气与大气污染物"此涨彼消",天然气与大气污染物负相关。     

化工装置停工放空过程中VOCs排放及估算方法

通过分析化工企业典型开、停车过程的排污节点,表明停车过程中大气挥发性有机污染物主要来自装置退料结束后挂壁、底部滞留和内部空间蒸气等滞留在设备内部的残余物料。在总结化工装置停工放空过程中大气挥发性有机物来源的基础上,讨论并提出大气污染排放量估算方法。     

上海浦东国际机场飞机尾气排放对机场附近空气质量的影响

统计2012年10月和11月浦东机场飞机机型和航班架次,根据各类飞机起降的污染物排放设计工作参数,估算出2012年浦东机场飞机起降时排放的NO2、SO2、CO和HC的估算值。利用浦东新区13个空气监测子站二氧化氮和二氧化硫数据绘制等值线图。结果显示,机场所在的江镇点位和祝桥点位二氧化氮浓度变化受飞机影响很大,而飞机排放的二氧化硫对两个点位的影响可以忽略不计。建议采用改进飞机滑行路线、探讨征收飞机碳排放税等措施减少飞机尾气排放对空气质量的影响。     

风电机组与民爆危险品建筑物间安全防护距离的研究与选定

针对风电机组选址与民爆企业安全管理的突出矛盾,研究分析了风电机组和民爆危险品建筑物间安全距离设定的原则和方法,深入剖析了重大危险影响因素,并结合现行标准规范和国外相关规定及经验做法,估算了安全距离值,探讨了安全距离设定的可能性、合理性和适应性,提出了安全距离设定的建议和参照依据。     

Estimating marine biogeochemical rates of the carbonate pH system—A Kalman filter tested

Oxygen (O₂), nitrate (NO₃), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) or pCO₂, and pH or total alkalinity (TA), are useful indices of marine chemical, physical and biological processes operating on varying time-scales. Although these properties are increasingly being monitored at high frequency, they have not been extensively used for studying ecosystem dynamics. We test whether we can estimate time-evolving biogeochemical rates (e.g. primary production, respiration, calcification and carbonate dissolution, and nitrification) from synthetic high frequency time-series of O₂, NO₃, DIC, pCO₂, TA or pH. More specifically, a Kalman filter has been implemented in a very simplified biogeochemical model describing the dynamics of O₂, NO₃, DIC and TA and linking the concentration data to biogeochemical fluxes. Different sets of concentration data are assimilated and biogeochemical rates are estimated. The frequency of assimilation required to get acceptable results is investigated and is compared with the frequency of sampling in the field or in controlled experimental settings.Smoothing of the data to remove data noise before assimilation improves the estimation of the biogeochemical rates. The best estimated rates are obtained when assimilating O₂, NO₃ and TA although the assimilation of DIC instead of TA also gives satisfactory results. In case pH or pCO₂ is assimilated rather than DIC or TA, the linearization of the (now nonlinear) observation equation introduces perturbations and the Kalman filter behaves suboptimal. We conclude that, given the resolution of data required, the tool has potential to estimate biogeochemical rates of the carbonate system under controlled settings.     

CLIMATE FACTOR FOR SMALL-BASIN FLOOD FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: A climate factor, C_T, (T = 2–, 25-, and 100-year recurrence intervals) that delineates regional trends in small-basin flood frequency was derived using data from 71 long-term rainfall record sites. Values of C_T at these sites were developed by a regression analysis that related rainfall-runoff model estimates of T-year floods to a sample set of 50 model calibrations. C_T was regionalized via kriging to develop maps depicting its geographic variation for a large part of the United States east of the 105th meridian. Kriged estimates of C_T and basin-runoff characteristics were used to compute regionalized T-year floods for 200 small drainage basins. Observed T-year flood estimates also were developed for these sites. Regionalized floods are shown to account for a large percentage of the variability in observed flood estimates with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.89 for 2-year floods to 0.82 for 100-year floods. The relative importance of the factors comprising regionalized flood estimates is evaluated in terms of scale (size of drainage area), basin-runoff characteristics (rainfall. runoff model parameters), and climate (C_T).     

INSTANTANEOUS PEAK FLOW ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR NEWFOUNDLAND STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: A procedure of estimating instantaneous flood flows for various return periods on the Island of Newfoundland is presented. The procedure is based on annual maximum instantaneous flows rather than annual maximum daily-mean flows, as the latter requires the conversion of estimated daily-mean flows into instantaneous flows. Regression equations were developed for each of three homogeneous regions for the desired return periods. The flood flow estimation capability of the presented procedure is demonstrated to be better than any other currently available procedure on the Island.