CO2 storage capacity estimation: Methodology and gaps

Implementation of CO₂ capture and geological storage (CCGS) technology at the scale needed to achieve a significant and meaningful reduction in CO₂ emissions requires knowledge of the available CO₂ storage capacity. CO₂ storage capacity assessments may be conducted at various scales—in decreasing order of size and increasing order of resolution: country, basin, regional, local and site-specific. Estimation of the CO₂ storage capacity in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is straightforward and is based on recoverable reserves, reservoir properties and in situ CO₂ characteristics. In the case of CO₂-EOR, the CO₂ storage capacity can be roughly evaluated on the basis of worldwide field experience or more accurately through numerical simulations. Determination of the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in coal beds is based on coal thickness and CO₂ adsorption isotherms, and recovery and completion factors. Evaluation of the CO₂ storage capacity in deep saline aquifers is very complex because four trapping mechanisms that act at different rates are involved and, at times, all mechanisms may be operating simultaneously. The level of detail and resolution required in the data make reliable and accurate estimation of CO₂ storage capacity in deep saline aquifers practical only at the local and site-specific scales. This paper follows a previous one on issues and development of standards for CO₂ storage capacity estimation, and provides a clear set of definitions and methodologies for the assessment of CO₂ storage capacity in geological media. Notwithstanding the defined methodologies suggested for estimating CO₂ storage capacity, major challenges lie ahead because of lack of data, particularly for coal beds and deep saline aquifers, lack of knowledge about the coefficients that reduce storage capacity from theoretical to effective and to practical, and lack of knowledge about the interplay between various trapping mechanisms at work in deep saline aquifers.     

天然气钻井井口安全距离研究分析

分析天然气钻井井场可能发生的事故类型及事故的破坏程度,选择适合的事故后果模型,对天然气井井喷失控后可能发生的蒸气云爆炸及硫化氢扩散的后果进行量化分析,根据超压-冲量准则、热剂量准则和硫化氢扩散行为规律,计算出爆炸波、爆炸火球及硫化氢扩散的危害范围。笔者建立了天然气钻井井口安全距离的计算模型,并提出一种确定安全距离的方法。通过计算给出不同无阻流量、不同硫化氢体积含量的20种条件下的天然气钻井井口安全距离,并应用该模型对某含硫气井井口安全距离进行了计算。实例表明,该方法具备实用性,值得在天然气井选址规划中推广和使用。     

Use of Approximate Inference in an Index of Completeness of Biological Inventories

Abstract:  To assess the completeness of a floristic or faunal inventory, one may use the ratio of the observed number of species to the "true number" of species ( C ). If the inventory is complete , C = 1. The estimate of the true number can be obtained from accumulation curves, nonparametric methods, or other techniques. We devised a simple method for computing confidence intervals (CI) for C and for evaluating the null hypothesis that the inventory is complete. The method is based on the assumptions that an estimate of the variance of the true number of species is known and that the distribution of the estimator of the true number of species is approximately normal. We applied our method to bird inventories in the Balsas Basin of Mexico. The completeness index for subtransects were lower (84.0, 85.4, and 89.9%) than for the whole transect (91.6%) (all significantly different from 100%). Thus, these particular inventories were incomplete at 2 spatial resolutions. Our method of estimating CI for C can be used to estimate species richness obtained from databases of different sites or to test the null hypothesis that an inventory derived from a database is complete.     

Estimating Watershed Level Nonagricultural Pesticide Use From Golf Courses Using Geospatial Methods1

Abstract: Limited information exists on pesticide use for nonagricultural purposes, making it difficult to estimate pesticide loadings from nonagricultural sources to surface water and to conduct environmental risk assessments. A method was developed to estimate the amount of pesticide use on recreational turf grasses, specifically golf course turf grasses, for watersheds located throughout the conterminous United States (U.S.). The approach estimates pesticide use: (1) based on the area of recreational turf grasses (used as a surrogate for turf associated with golf courses) within the watershed, which was derived from maps of land cover, and (2) from data on the location and average treatable area of golf courses. The area of golf course turf grasses determined from these two methods was used to calculate the percentage of each watershed planted in golf course turf grass (percent crop area, or PCA). Turf‐grass PCAs derived from the two methods were used with recommended application rates provided on pesticide labels to estimate total pesticide use on recreational turf within 1,606 watersheds associated with surface‐water sources of drinking water. These pesticide use estimates made from label rates and PCAs were compared to use estimates from industry sales data on the amount of each pesticide sold for use within the watershed. The PCAs derived from the land‐cover data had an average value of 0.4% of a watershed with minimum of 0.01% and a maximum of 9.8%, whereas the PCA values that are based on the number of golf courses in a watershed had an average of 0.3% of a watershed with a minimum of <0.01% and a maximum of 14.2%. Both the land‐cover method and the number of golf courses method produced similar PCA distributions, suggesting that either technique may be used to provide a PCA estimate for recreational turf. The average and maximum PCAs generally correlated to watershed size, with the highest PCAs estimated for small watersheds. Using watershed specific PCAs, combined with label rates, resulted in greater than two orders of magnitude over‐estimation of the pesticide use compared to estimates from sales data.     

细水雾灭火技术在微重力环境下应用的可行性分析

针对细水雾灭火技术在载人航天器安全中应用的可行性,通过理论分析研究了微重力环境下液滴滞止距离与初始速度、粒径的关系,并利用Fluent模拟研究了水雾喷嘴雾场结构.理论分析结果表明,初始速度一定,水雾粒径越小,其滞止距离也越短;初始速度越大,其滞止距离越长.粒径小于50μm时,初始速度对滞止距离影响不大.数值模拟结果表明,微重力下的雾场分布与常重力下有明显差异,水雾主要集中在喷嘴附近,而且水雾蒸发速率较慢,液滴存活时间长.对比理论分析和模拟结果,模拟的迁移距离要小于理论值,这是因为理论分析中忽略了液滴的蒸发.为解决液滴滞止的问题,建议微重力环境下采取气体载运水雾的方式.     

亚热带丘陵小流域土壤有效磷空间变异与淋失风险研究

肥料过施导致的土壤磷素累积和淋失是农业面源污染的重要方面.以湖南省长沙县金井镇脱甲河小流域(52 km2)为研究区,采用高密度布点采样、Arc GIS软件和属性相似反距离加权插值法研究了亚热带丘陵小流域表层(0~20 cm)土壤有效磷(Olsen-P)含量(以P计,下同)的空间分布特征与磷素的淋失风险.结果表明,菜地、果园、稻田和茶园土壤Olsen-P平均含量为62.0、16.1、14.4和13.7 mg·kg-1,是林地(平均含量为2.36 mg·kg-1)的5.8~26.3倍.5个土地利用类型土壤Olsen-P含量均具有高等变异水平和中等程度的空间自相关性(块基比C0/(C0+C)=50%),这与区内地形地貌、土壤母质、人工施肥等具有密切关系.根据土壤0.01 mol·L-1Ca Cl2浸提态P和Olsen-P的非线性关系可确定区内红壤和水稻土P的淋失风险临界值分别为69.97和98.40 mg·kg-1,并据此对脱甲河小流域土壤磷素淋失的风险进行了定量评价,结果表明旱地土壤具有明显较高的淋失风险,其中中等以上的比例占36.4%,而稻田土壤仅有0.2%,为中等以上淋失风险.因此,控制旱地(尤其是菜地)磷肥的投入是降低亚热带丘陵小流域土壤P淋失风险和减轻农业面源污染的关键.     

苏州地区水稻土重金属污染源解析及端元影响量化研究

利用国家土壤质量标准和当地背景值评价了苏州地区表层水稻土重金属(Pb、Cd、As、Hg、Cu、Zn、Ni、Cr)的污染(富集)状况.结果发现,苏州地区土壤Cd、Hg、As、Pb、Zn、Cu、Cr和Ni平均含量分别是0.23、0.23、9.14、35.36、103.36、35.75、77.12和33.18μg·g-1;除As外,其余7种重金属平均含量皆明显高于当地土壤背景值.通过与中国土壤环境质量标准(GB15618—1995)相比,发现苏州地区土壤中Cd和Hg是8种重金属中风险最高的.地质累积指数分析表明,苏州水稻土重金属Cd、Hg、Pb、Cu和Zn出现了污染,其中以Cd和Hg的污染程度最突出,约80%的土壤样品出现了Pb轻度污染.因子得分-多元回归法(PCS-MLR)估算表明,70%的土壤Cd来自与有色金属或磷有关的人为活动;土壤中约50%的Pb和72%的Hg源于大气沉降的贡献;土壤的Zn和Cu污染主要来自与有色金属或磷有关的人为活动,该端元对土壤Zn和Cu的影响率分别为53%和45%.     

Ozone concentrations, flux and potential effect on yield during wheat growth in the Northwest-Shandong Plain of China

Ozone (O₃) concentration and flux (F_o) were measured using the eddy covariance technique over a wheat field in the Northwest-Shandong Plain of China. The O₃-induced wheat yield loss was estimated by utilizing O₃ exposure-response models. The results showed that: (1) During the growing season (7 March to 7 June, 2012), the minimum (16.1 ppbV) and maximum (53.3 ppbV) mean O₃ concentrations occurred at approximately 6:30 and 16:00, respectively. The mean and maximum of all measured O₃ concentrations were 31.3 and 128.4 ppbV, respectively. The variation of O₃ concentration was mainly affected by solar radiation and temperature. (2) The mean diurnal variation of deposition velocity (V_d) can be divided into four phases, and the maximum occurred at noon (12:00). Averaged V_d during daytime (6:00–18:00) and nighttime (18:00–6:00) were 0.42 and 0.14 cm/sec, respectively. The maximum of measured V_d was about 1.5 cm/sec. The magnitude of V_d was influenced by the wheat growing stage, and its variation was significantly correlated with both global radiation and friction velocity. (3) The maximum mean F_o appeared at 14:00, and the maximum measured F_o was − 33.5 nmol/(m²·sec). Averaged F_o during daytime and nighttime were − 6.9 and − 1.5 nmol/(m²·sec), respectively. (4) Using O₃ exposure-response functions obtained from the USA, Europe, and China, the O₃-induced wheat yield reduction in the district was estimated as 12.9% on average (5.5%–23.3%). Large uncertainties were related to the statistical methods and environmental conditions involved in deriving the exposure-response functions.     

中国省际碳排放效率的空间计量

本文基于至强有效前沿的最小距离法测算了我国1998-2011年的省际CO2排放效率,这种方法的优点是效率达到生产前沿后在投入或产出方面所做出的改动最小。然后在此基础上分析了我国省际碳排放效率的区域差异性以及空间相关性,最后运用1998-2011年我国30个省份的面板数据,建立空间面板数据模型,对我国碳排放效率的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:样本期内,我国省际碳排放效率表现出较大的省际差异性,东部沿海省份的平均碳排放效率显著高于内陆省份。分地区看,东部地区的碳排放效率走势相对平稳,全国及中西部地区的碳排放效率则呈现出"U"型曲线的走势,并且东部地区的碳排放效率明显要高于中西部地区;空间自相关Moran’s I检验显示,省际碳排放效率在空间上存在着显著的空间自相关性,具有明显的集群趋势,而空间LISA图则表明省际碳排放效率不仅具有空间依赖性的特征,同时也有空间异质性的表现;经济规模、工业结构和能源消费结构对碳排放效率造成了较大的负面影响,对外开放、企业所有制结构以及政府干预对碳排放效率有正向影响,而产业结构对碳排放效率的影响则不显著。因此,对于将来中国提高碳排放效率工作的重点应该是实现经济增长模式由粗放型向集约型的转变,着重调整工业结构和能源消费结构,同时进一步提升对外开放的质量,加强政府的碳减排工作力度。