Movement distances enhance validity of predictive models

Including the distance species are able to move in predictive models improves conservation practice. Bird inventory projects carried out from 1993 to 2004 in Taiwan provide an opportunity to investigate the relationships among species distribution, movement distance, and the environment. We compared projected distributions of 17 Taiwanese endemic bird species using what we called the Standard Method (i.e. movement distance is zero) and what we called the Buffer Method (i.e. movement distance is longer than zero) in three presence-only models (GARP, MAXENT and LIVES). The Standard Method used species original occurrence records directly while the Buffer Method expanded the occurrence of species to areas 1 km² around each recorded location. We first tested the efficacy of the Buffer Method using ten common species of the 17, and then applied the method to two rare species of the 17. For both the common and rare species, the distributions predicted by the two methods showed slight but important differences. The Buffer Method for all species had a higher average predictive probability, while the Standard Method had a higher maximum predictive probability. Most of the values for the area under the curve (AUC) were over 0.8 with the exceptions of Taiwan Barbet (Megalaima nuchalis) and Taiwan Hwamei (Garrulax taewanus), which have recently separated from Indochinese Barbet (Megalaima annamensis) and Chinese Hwamei (Garrulax canorus), and since 2008 and 2006 have been regarded as species endemic to the study area. Kappa values showed good performance for all species using both methods. The Buffer Method, however, resulted in significantly higher sensitivity and accuracy values for all models of species (p < 0.05). We conclude that when modeling species distribution including the area where the species was censused along with areas within the minimum movement areas better defines the surrounding areas that might supplement core habitat requirements. Therefore, using the Buffer Method, species surrounding distribution can be obtained which provides a better understanding of the species distributions. Given that distribution size is a key to the conservation of species, we suggest the Buffer Method can be used in conservation planning.     

Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America

In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions.     

祁连山青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布

通过对祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布格局的研究,结果表明：祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落内有维管植物25科51属96种,其中乔木4种,灌木29种,草本62种;植物种相对集中分布于海拔2 680～2 890 m的阴坡;随海拔梯度升高,群落内植物种数减少,且相邻样地的共有种数呈不明显的先减少而后增加的趋势,Margalef指数、Shannon-Wiener指数和Pielou指数呈降低趋势;不同林型的植物种的丰富度依次为：青海云杉混交林〉草类-青海云杉林〉苔藓-青海云杉林〉灌木-青海云杉林〉马先蒿-青海云杉林。     

黄河口潮间带表层沉积物重金属和营养元素的分布特征

于2010年5月采集了5个断面的黄河口潮间带高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物样品,对沉积物的理化性质、重金属和营养元素的空间分布特征进行了研究,并采用单因子污染指数法和综合潜在生态风险指数法,参考加拿大安大略省环境和能源部关于沉积物质量指南,对黄河口潮间带沉积物质量进行了评价。结果表明,除Cu和Pb外,其它重金属和营养元素质量分数均表现为河口北侧高于南侧;除Hg外,高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物重金属和营养元素质量分数无显著差异,没有表现出成熟潮滩明显的垂岸分带特征。Pb质量分数高于渤海表层沉积物的高值,是该区域的首要污染因子;Hg在河口北侧近河口的两个站位低潮滩质量分数达到海洋沉积物质量一类标准的1.7和1.8倍,存在一定的潜在生态风险;TN和TOC质量分数范围在安全级别,TP质量分数在20%的站位超过最低安全级别,存在一定的安全风险。与国内其它潮滩相比,黄河口潮间带重金属Zn、Cd、Hg和As的质量分数处于较低水平,Cu和Pb质量分数处于中等水平,TOC和TP质量分数与长江口潮间带相当,TN质量分数较低。研究结果将为黄河三角洲地区生态保护、环境管理和污染治理提供基础数据。     

地形地貌对豫东平原浅层高氟地下水分布的控制

氟是人体内所必须的微量元素,但过多的摄入会引发氟中毒.豫东平原在全国来说是个氟中毒严重的地区,高氟水分布范围广,背景值高,当地居民往往通过饮用浅层地下水而导致氟中毒.浅层高氟水的分布总体上呈由西北向东南逐渐增多的态势,而局域的地形地貌使得高氟水的分布呈现出斑状、条带状的形态.一般来说,洼地有利于高氟水的富集.     

淮南潘北矿塌陷湿地土壤退化评价

采煤带来的地面塌陷是极为重要的新生环境地质问题。以淮南潘北矿塌陷湿地为研究区域,其总氮(TN)含量平均水平为1.04g/kg,总磷(TP)含量平均水平为425mg/kg,在空间分布上均有从非季节性积水区向季节性积水区递减的趋势。土壤理化性质指标间总氮与有机质(SOM)含量呈极显著正向相关,与pH呈负向相关,与有效磷(AP)呈正向相关;总磷与有效磷表现为极显著相关;AP与有效钾(AK)、SOM都有很好的相关关系。通过应用相关分析和模糊数学的原理,以TN、TP、AP、AK和SOM等5个土壤肥力指标为基础,对该区域季节性积水区和非积水区土壤肥力进行数值化综合评价。季节性积水区IFI为0.463,非积水区IFI为 0.601,表明塌陷湿地形成后会加剧水域周边土壤的退化。     

Inverse calculation approaches for source determination in hazardous chemical releases

Source determination is vital in decision making and emergency planning involving hazardous chemical releases. This work was concentrated on inverse calculation approaches for source determination as well as current trends and future perspectives. In this paper, these different approaches are reviewed by dividing them into two categories: probability modeling methods and optimization modeling methods. The traits of these approaches are comparatively analyzed. Then it is shown how these approaches behave when applied to practical cases, and their feasibility, applicability, stability, and limitation in determining the location and strength are presented. It is argued that when experimenting with potential terrorist attacks involving hazardous chemical releases, observation points should be around the main line of the downwind direction when the source is known; while the uniform distribution of observation points is an efficient solution for unknown incidents. Probability modeling methods are demonstrated to be insufficient during emergency responses due to their lacking of enough prior information of unknown parameters, while optimization modeling methods are efficient and become a new trend in source determination. Findings reflect an urgent need for the development of high-accuracy detectors and further research of data transmission techniques in order to ensure the validity of these approaches.     

阳宗海表层沉积物磷、氟、硫的分布与污染状况

对阳宗海表层沉积物中磷、氟、硫的含量进行了调查,并用单指标标准指数法对污染水平进行了评价.结果表明,阳宗海表层沉积物磷、氟、硫含量的平均值依次为1 041 mg/kg、1 075 mg/kg、2 743 mg/kg.生活、生产污水、工业废气,以及机动船只、网箱养鱼等活动是阳宗海表层沉积物中磷、氟、硫的主要来源.磷、氟、...     

河北省近年地闪特征分析

利用河北省电力部门提供的2003年1月至2007年12月5年的地闪定位资料,对河北省地闪活动的时空分布进行了分析。结果表明:河北省地闪高密度区主要位于太行山中南部的迎风坡、燕山东部迎风坡以及平原的局部地区。地闪高密度区的分布,大部分与山脉峡谷地带、山脉迎风坡、地面水源丰富区及铁矿区较为对应;河北省的地闪活动呈现出明显的月季变化和日变化。地闪活动主要发生在4-10月,其中以6-8月最为频繁。地闪的月、季变化与副热带高压脊线位置的月季变化密切相关。河北省地闪活动的峰值出现在15-17时,谷值出现在10-11时。     

基于GIS的滑坡灾害风险空间预测

滑坡灾害风险评价是一个包含有滑坡危险性评价和承灾体易损性评价的体系,对滑坡危险性进行了空间预测与区划,并开展了区域承灾体易损性的区划与评价。结合风险评价的基本要求,进行了研究区滑坡灾害的风险区划,将其划分为极高、高、中、低与极低风险区。针对研究区经济发展水平及政府防灾力度,提出了适合研究区的可接受风险标准与管理对策。