Movement distances enhance validity of predictive models

Including the distance species are able to move in predictive models improves conservation practice. Bird inventory projects carried out from 1993 to 2004 in Taiwan provide an opportunity to investigate the relationships among species distribution, movement distance, and the environment. We compared projected distributions of 17 Taiwanese endemic bird species using what we called the Standard Method (i.e. movement distance is zero) and what we called the Buffer Method (i.e. movement distance is longer than zero) in three presence-only models (GARP, MAXENT and LIVES). The Standard Method used species original occurrence records directly while the Buffer Method expanded the occurrence of species to areas 1 km² around each recorded location. We first tested the efficacy of the Buffer Method using ten common species of the 17, and then applied the method to two rare species of the 17. For both the common and rare species, the distributions predicted by the two methods showed slight but important differences. The Buffer Method for all species had a higher average predictive probability, while the Standard Method had a higher maximum predictive probability. Most of the values for the area under the curve (AUC) were over 0.8 with the exceptions of Taiwan Barbet (Megalaima nuchalis) and Taiwan Hwamei (Garrulax taewanus), which have recently separated from Indochinese Barbet (Megalaima annamensis) and Chinese Hwamei (Garrulax canorus), and since 2008 and 2006 have been regarded as species endemic to the study area. Kappa values showed good performance for all species using both methods. The Buffer Method, however, resulted in significantly higher sensitivity and accuracy values for all models of species (p < 0.05). We conclude that when modeling species distribution including the area where the species was censused along with areas within the minimum movement areas better defines the surrounding areas that might supplement core habitat requirements. Therefore, using the Buffer Method, species surrounding distribution can be obtained which provides a better understanding of the species distributions. Given that distribution size is a key to the conservation of species, we suggest the Buffer Method can be used in conservation planning.     

Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America

In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions.     

伊犁河谷北坡野果林群落结构及其与环境的关系

结合野外植被调查,在获取较为详细的生境数据基础上,探讨伊犁河谷北坡野果林群落与环境因子之间的定量关系.TWINSPAN和去趋势典范对应分析(DCCA)的结果表明:1)在伊犁河谷北坡野果林群落分布地段,地形因子、养分和水分条件是群落生境的基本因子;2)海拔因子指示出研究区野果林群落最基本的分化,说明海拔条件是制约研究区植物群落分布的最重要的因子;3)土壤表层水分状况与海拔关系较密切,反映了草本层群落所受到的水分条件影响;4)养分状况的差异,除了说明生境条件本身的差异外,也在一定程度上指示了群落现在生境的养分状况,受人为的影响较大.总之,在山地复杂的地形条件下,群落生境条件的差异非常显著,海拔、土壤含水率、全氮、坡向和pH值的组合,影响并控制着研究区各群落分布格局的形成.     

椒江口春、秋季浮游动物分布特征及与主要环境因子的关系

2009年5月和10月对椒江口(121.35°E～121.85°E,28.50°N～28.80°N)浮游动物进行调查,分析其群落结构、生物量和丰度的时空分布特征及与主要环境因子的关系.结果表明,该海域浮游动物有明显的季节变化,春季鉴定到14大类50种,卡玛拉水母(Malagazzia carolinae)为绝对优势种,秋季鉴定到14大类73种,优势种分别为百陶箭虫(Sagitta bedoti)、双生水母(Diphyes chamissonis)、亚强真哲水蚤(Eucalanus subcrassus)、微刺哲水蚤(Canthocalanus pauper)、中华胸刺水蚤(Centropages sinensis)和肥胖箭虫(Sagitta enflata);多样性指数为秋季(2.59)高于春季(1.82),生物量和丰度为春季(972.66 mg/m3和1 743.54 ind/m3)远高于秋季(65.30 mg/m3和31.94 ind/m3).总生物量和丰度的空间分布由优势种决定,春季高值区出现在咸淡水交汇的出海口处;秋季有沿河口向外递增的趋势.典范对应分析(CCA)表明,营养盐、盐度和溶解氧为影响春秋季椒江口浮游动物分布的环境因子;浮游动物群落存在明显的季节和空间异质性;各物种适宜的生态环境不同.与类似河口的现状相比,椒江口的浮游动物种类丰富,可能与影响该河口的水团多样有关;与历史资料相比,椒江口4、10月份浮游动物的生物量、丰度及优势类群保持相对稳定.图9表6参44     

成都城区蔬菜地土壤中农药残留及其分布特征

采用GC-ECD检测、GC/MS-MS确证的方法对成都城区14个区县蔬菜地土壤中23种有机氯农药（OCPs）进行分析,以揭示OCPs的残留现状及其分布特征。结果表明,OCPs残留水平在不同区县间差异很大,变化范围20.18～104.33μg.kg-1之间,近郊区县（双流、龙泉驿、郫县、新都、温江）远低于边缘区县。被检出的18种OCPs中,DDTs、HCHs检出率最高（100%）,残留水平为16.11～99.51、1.31～9.34μg.kg-1,分别占OCPs残留总量质量分数的87.68%、8.15%;六氯苯（HCB）次之（90%）;灭蚁灵、环氧七氯、硫丹Ⅰ和γ-氯丹也有不同程度的检出（44.29%～47.14%）,主要分布在近郊区县;艾氏剂、狄氏剂、异狄氏剂、毒杀芬的检出率较低（32.86%～37.14%）,多分布于彭州、都江堰、大邑、崇州等地。土壤中OCPs的各种异构体、代谢物变化规律显示,DDTs、HCHs残留主要源于早期的使用或大气输入,但不排除金堂、青白江、新津地区近期可能有新的DDTs输入,崇州、彭州、都江堰、大邑地区可能有HCHs输入。     

祁连山青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布

通过对祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布格局的研究,结果表明：祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落内有维管植物25科51属96种,其中乔木4种,灌木29种,草本62种;植物种相对集中分布于海拔2 680～2 890 m的阴坡;随海拔梯度升高,群落内植物种数减少,且相邻样地的共有种数呈不明显的先减少而后增加的趋势,Margalef指数、Shannon-Wiener指数和Pielou指数呈降低趋势;不同林型的植物种的丰富度依次为：青海云杉混交林〉草类-青海云杉林〉苔藓-青海云杉林〉灌木-青海云杉林〉马先蒿-青海云杉林。     

黄河口潮间带表层沉积物重金属和营养元素的分布特征

于2010年5月采集了5个断面的黄河口潮间带高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物样品,对沉积物的理化性质、重金属和营养元素的空间分布特征进行了研究,并采用单因子污染指数法和综合潜在生态风险指数法,参考加拿大安大略省环境和能源部关于沉积物质量指南,对黄河口潮间带沉积物质量进行了评价。结果表明,除Cu和Pb外,其它重金属和营养元素质量分数均表现为河口北侧高于南侧;除Hg外,高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物重金属和营养元素质量分数无显著差异,没有表现出成熟潮滩明显的垂岸分带特征。Pb质量分数高于渤海表层沉积物的高值,是该区域的首要污染因子;Hg在河口北侧近河口的两个站位低潮滩质量分数达到海洋沉积物质量一类标准的1.7和1.8倍,存在一定的潜在生态风险;TN和TOC质量分数范围在安全级别,TP质量分数在20%的站位超过最低安全级别,存在一定的安全风险。与国内其它潮滩相比,黄河口潮间带重金属Zn、Cd、Hg和As的质量分数处于较低水平,Cu和Pb质量分数处于中等水平,TOC和TP质量分数与长江口潮间带相当,TN质量分数较低。研究结果将为黄河三角洲地区生态保护、环境管理和污染治理提供基础数据。     

地形地貌对豫东平原浅层高氟地下水分布的控制

氟是人体内所必须的微量元素,但过多的摄入会引发氟中毒.豫东平原在全国来说是个氟中毒严重的地区,高氟水分布范围广,背景值高,当地居民往往通过饮用浅层地下水而导致氟中毒.浅层高氟水的分布总体上呈由西北向东南逐渐增多的态势,而局域的地形地貌使得高氟水的分布呈现出斑状、条带状的形态.一般来说,洼地有利于高氟水的富集.     

黄土高原陆地表层最大可能蒸散量的变化特征

基于黄土高原1961—2008年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速和日照百分率等气候要素资料,应用修订的Penman-Monteith(P-M)模型计算了最大可能蒸散量,分析其时空分布、异常分布特征和次区域时间演变特征。结果表明:1961—2008年间,黄土高原最大可能蒸散量多年平均在400~800 mm之间,大部分区域650~750 mm之间。一致性异常分布是黄土高原最大可能蒸散量的最主要空间模态。黄土高原最大可能蒸散量的异常空间分布可分为以下3个关键区:高原西北部区、高原东北部区和高原东南部区。高原西北部区域最大可能蒸散量呈显著增加趋势,且发生了突变现象;高原东北部区域最大可能蒸散量呈显著下降的趋势,也发生了突变;而高原东南部区域下降趋势不显著,未发生突变。黄土高原最大可能蒸散量的3个空间分区中,3 a的周期振荡表现得比较显著。