北京市冬季气象要素对气溶胶浓度日变化的影响

对2004年1月1—15日北京气溶胶浓度与相对湿度、气压、风速、风向等气象要素的平均日变化进行分析,结果表明:北京冬季ρ(PM₁₀₎日变化明显,受气象要素的日变化影响. ρ(PM₁₀₎与相对湿度和气压呈正相关性;风速对ρ(PM₁₀)的日变化影响明显,09:00—18:00风速和ρ(PM₁₀₎变化趋势一致,呈正相关性,其他时间则呈负相关性; 风向对粗、细粒子的数浓度影响不同,细粒子数浓度在偏东风时大,西、西南风时小,而粗粒子则相反;粗、细粒子的数浓度日变化受气象要素的影响程度不同,相对于粗粒子,细粒子数浓度更易受气象要素日变化的影响.      

Assessing the impact of biological control of Plutella xylostella through the application of Lotka–Volterra model

The Lotka–Volterra model was applied to the population densities of diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella (L.) and its exotic larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum (Hellen) data that was collected earlier by icipe's DBM biological control team. The collections were done for 15 months before the release and 36 months after release of the parasitoid in two areas; in Werugha, Coast Province of Kenya and Tharuni, Central Province of Kenya, respectively. For each area in pre- and post-release periods, we estimated Lotka–Volterra model parameters from the minimization of the loss function between the theoretical and experimental time-series datasets following the Nelder-Mead multidimensional method. The model estimated a reduction in the value of the steady state of DBM population from 4.86 to 2.17 in Werugha and from 6.11 to 3.76 and 3.45 (with and without exclusion of the time before D. semiclausum recovery) in Tharuni when transiting from the pre- and post-release periods, respectively. This change was a consequence of the newly introduced parasitoid, in the areas. The study presented a successful and detailed technique for non-linear model parameters restoration which was demonstrated by the correct mimicking of empirical datasets from the classical biological control with D. semiclausum, in different areas of Kenya. The applied model has measured the parasitoids impact on the DBM biological control through a quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of the newly introduced species D. semiclausum. These equations may therefore be used as tool for decision making in the implementation for such pests’ management system strategy.     

Recruitment and attrition of associated plants under a shading crop canopy: Model selection and calibration

Associated plant and animal diversity provides ecosystem services within crop production systems. The importance of the maintenance or restoration of diversity is therefore increasingly acknowledged. Here we study the population dynamics of associated annual plants (‘weeds’) during the growth of a crop in a season and introduce a minimal model to characterize the recruitment and attrition of the associated plants under the influence of shading by the crop. A mechanistically based, logistic, light interception model was parameterized with light interception measurements in two single crops (barley and rye) and in mixtures of these cereals with peas. Population dynamics data were collected for the annuals Papaver rhoeas, Centaurea cyanus, Chrysanthemum segetum, and Misopates orontium. A minimal population dynamics model was identified for each annual plant species, using system identification techniques as model selection and calibration.     

波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性与构象的影响

为初步探讨波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶的作用机理及变化规律,采用人工模拟和荧光光谱法研究了波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性特征及构象的影响.结果表明:1)不同浓度波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性总体呈现低浓度激活、高浓度抑制作用.不同配制方式波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性抑制效应顺序为多倍量式>倍量式>半量式>等量式.浓度为200mg·kg-1左右的等量式波尔多液处理对土壤过氧化氢酶活性的影响最小.2)24h培养时间下,随波尔多液浓度的增加,酶促反应米氏常数Km和最大反应速率Vmax均呈先减小后增大趋势.统计分析表明,Km和Vmax均与波尔多液浓度呈显著正相关(p<0.01),土壤过氧化氢酶Km值可表征波尔多液对土壤过氧化氢酶活性的影响程度,其作用机理为反竞争性抑制类型.3)波尔多液对离体过氧化氢酶的内源荧光有较强的猝灭作用,Cu(Ⅱ)和离体过氧化氢酶的结合常数K及结合位点数n分别为69.1831mol·L-1和0.6878.     

Large eddy simulation of plume dispersion behind an aircraft in the take-off phase

The aim of this paper is to provide an investigation, using large eddy simulation, into plume dispersion behind an aircraft in co-flowing take-off conditions. Validation studies of the computational model were presented by Aloysius and Wrobel (Environ Model Softw 24:929–937, 2009) and a study of the flow and dispersion properties of a double-engine aircraft jet was presented by Aloysius et al. (EEC/SEE/2007/001, EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, ), in which only the engine was modelled. In this paper, the complete geometry of a Boeing 737 is modelled and investigated. The current work represents a contribution towards a better understanding of the source dynamics behind an airplane jet engine during the take-off and landing phases. The information provided from these simulations will be useful for future improvements of existing dispersion models.     

An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

Spatio-temporal dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon by fuzzy pattern recognition

This paper models the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon as a function of the physico-chemical and ecological system variables, including the submerged vegetation, nutrients, and hydrodynamics. It should be viewed as the concluding sequel to a previous paper describing the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem [Giusti, E., Marsili-Libelli, S., 2006. An integrated model for the Orbetello lagoon ecosystem, Ecol. Model. 196, 379–394] by introducing the missing DO dynamics. The model considers the oxygen demand originating from the decay of carbonaceous and nitrogenous compounds, as well as photosynthesis and natural reaeration by winds and currents as the oxygen producing processes. With a fixed-parameter set the model could accurately reproduce each single circadian DO cycle, but in the long run it failed to extend this fit and could not accommodate the large DO fluctuations induced by the seasonal variability. In order to enhance the model flexibility, a fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm was designed to classify the circadian DO patterns into four typical behaviours, related to the season, and estimate the corresponding parameters, with the overall model output being a fuzzy combination of these sets. The paper discusses several methods to patch the parameter sets and compares their performance in tracking long-term DO variations. A final assessment of the model validity is obtained by incorporating the whole DO dynamics (model, fuzzy pattern recognition and parameter combination) into the general lagoon model and producing a consistently correct series of DO daily distributions over a yearly cycle. Thus the paper contains both a practical and a methodological aspect. The practical one is the linking of all the lagoon dynamics to the dissolved oxygen kinetics in order to clarify to what extent macroalgae and macrophytes influence the oxygen balance. The methodological aspect consists of extending the validity of short-term models to long time-horizons through a patching technique supported by fuzzy pattern recognition.     

Changes in the Carabid Fauna (Coleoptera, Carabidae) of Meadow Steppes during the Past Decades

Basic trends in the structural dynamics of the meadow-steppe carabid fauna over the period from 1970 to 1997 have been analyzed. Data on changes in the abundance and composition of dominant species are reported. Transformation of carabidocenoses is mainly accounted for by an increased humidity of the climate and the related mesophytization of forest–steppe ecosystems.