构思“安全学”

以辩证唯物主义为主线 ,对“安全学”的内涵 ,从安全科学的学科体系、构成、安全学的地位和作用 ,安全的自然属性与社会属性 ,世界观、人生观、价值观与安全观 ,安全哲学、安全哲理与安全方法 ,原始安全动力学、安全系统的灰色特征以及安全系统的非线性等主要方面进行了构思 ,以图搭起“安全学”的顶层结构 ,为撰写“安全学”打下基础。     

基于模型反演确定邛海湖泊营养物的参照状态

湖泊营养物基准参照状态的科学合理确定是营养物基准制定的重要技术基础之一。以四川邛海为例,将系统动力学模型耦合多种数学模型,对湖泊营养物的产生、分布及输移进行系统模拟,并结合系统反演方法获得湖泊近几十年不同水文条件下的各营养物浓度演化过程及湖泊富营养化水平。结果表明,经过试验校准的系统仿真模型能够较真实地反映湖泊历史富营养化变化过程,据此确定了湖泊营养物基准参照状态：TP浓度为0.008~0.015 mg/L;TN浓度为0.286~0.323 mg/L;Chl-a浓度为2.140~4.211 μg/L;透明度(SD)为1.862~2.731 m。     

基于系统动力学的食品企业安全生产监管博弈研究

为了研究食品安全生产及监管的内在机理、影响因素及监管模式,采用演化博弈论方法建立了政府监管部门与食品企业之间的博弈模型,运用复制动态方程和系统动力学方法深入分析了食品安全生产中相关主体的决策选择。结果表明:食品企业在追求利益最大化的前提下须主动重视食品安全问题,食品企业的策略选择受安全生产投入成本、处罚成本和声誉收益的影响;政府监管部门的监管行为受监管成本、外部负效益及社会成本等多方因素的影响。因此,增大监管部门惩处力度、降低监管成本、完善社会公众监督机制、强化声誉效应是食品安全问题得以解决的有力保障。     

Differential N uptake by maize cultivars and soil nitrate dynamics under N fertilization in West Africa

Nitrate is prone to leaching in the sandy soils of the West African moist savannas. Better management of nitrogen (N) resources and maize cultivars with enhanced genetic capacity to capture and utilize soil and fertilizer N are strategies that could improve N-use efficiency. In two field experiments conducted at Zaria, northern Nigeria, five maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars planted early in the season were assessed under various N levels for differences in N uptake, soil N dynamics, and related N losses. Cultivar TZB-SR accumulated more N in the aboveground plant parts in both years than the other cultivars. All, except the semi-prolific late (SPL) variety, met about 50–60% of their N demand by the time of silking (64–69 DAP). In both years, SPL had the greatest capacity to take up N during the grain filling period, and it had the highest grain-N concentration and the least apparent N loss through leaching in the second year. There were no significant differences in soil N dynamics among cultivars in both years. At harvest, the residual N in the upper 90 cm of the profile under all the cultivars ranged from 56 to 72 kg ha⁻¹ in the first year and from 73 to 83 kg ha⁻¹ in the second year. Apparent N loss from 0 to 90 cm soil profile through leaching ranged from 35 to 122 kg ha⁻¹ in both years. N application significantly increased N uptake by more than 30% at all sampling dates in the second year of the experiment, but had no effect on apparent N loss. Results indicate that the use of maize cultivars with high N uptake capacity during the grain filling period when maximum leaching losses occur could enhance N recovery and may be effective in reducing leaching losses of mineral N in the moist savanna soils.     

环境模型的统计评价

系统地探讨了评价模型的统计指标,并在BOD反应动力学模型中使用,取得了较好的效果。     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

种稻土壤CH4排放规律的研究

通过盆栽试验研究了水稻生长期CH4排放的规律。结果表明,CH4排放存在明显的日变化,最大值出现在下午4点左右,最小值出现在凌晨4点左右。土壤温度的变化是导致CH4排放日变化的主要因素。水稻生长期CH4排放的季节变化受前茬季节作物种植及稻草还田时间的显著影响。前茬季节种植紫云英及休闲且水稻移栽前施用稻草处理在水稻生长初期即有大量CH4排放,且在水稻生长的前期、中期和后期分别出现3个CH4排放峰;前茬季节种植小麦和休闲且在前茬季节前施用稻草处理的,直至水稻生长的中期才有少量CH4排放。烤田期间CH4的排放峰值出现在土壤呈微于松软状态时;烤田至土壤干裂时,CH4排放通量降至零。     

改性水葫芦粉对水体中Hg2+的吸附

通过二硫化碳（CS2）对水葫芦粉进行改性,研究吸附时间、吸附剂浓度和溶液pH对改性前后水葫芦吸附溶液二价汞（Hg2+）的影响,并探讨其吸附动力学、热力学行为和除汞机理。结果表明：吸附剂浓度为2 g·L-1,溶液pH值为6,吸附时间180 min,改性水葫芦粉对Hg2+浓度为2.0 mg·L-1时的去除率大于93%;改性前后水葫芦粉对Hg2+的吸附过程均符合拟二级动力学方程,化学吸附在整个吸附过程中起重要作用。吸附过程能够很好地用Langmuir方程拟合,吸附自由能变（ΔG）H）>0、吸附熵变（ΔS）>0,表明改性水葫芦粉对Hg2+的吸附过程是自发的吸热过程;动力学拟合和热力学研究表明改性水葫芦粉对Hg2+的吸附既有物理吸附又有化学吸附。     

叠氮增塑剂/硝化棉共混物的分子动力学模拟

目的 揭示叠氮增塑剂与硝化棉的相互作用机理,探索叠氮类增塑剂结构与性能间的关系,筛选能量性能和稳定性均较好的叠氮化合物。方法 建立硝化棉(NC)、1,3–二(叠氮乙酰氧基)–2–甲基–2–硝基丙烷(DAMNP)、1,3–双(叠氮乙酰氧基)–2–乙基–2–硝基丙烷(ENPEA)和1,8–二叠氮基–3,6–氧杂辛烷(AZTEGDN)纯物质模型以及NC/DAMNP、NC/ENPEA、NC/AZTEGDN共混物体系的微观分子模型,利用分子动力学模拟(MD)方法,对叠氮增塑剂/硝化棉的微观性质进行预测。分析共混体系的溶度参数、MSD值、结合能、径向分布函数、力学性能和玻璃化转变温度等性能。结果 DAMNP、ENPEA、AZTEGDN与NC之间的溶度参数差值较小。ENPEA与NC的结合能最大,DAMNP次之,AZTEGDN最小。3种增塑剂与NC的相互作用主要为vd W相互作用。加入增塑剂分子可以改善NC的运动能力,由于AZTEGDN的分子结构体积小,改善效果明显。径向分布函数分析结果进一步证明,NC与增塑剂分子间存在较强的氢键作用。结论 添加叠氮增塑剂可以改善NC的运动能力、力学性能,降低NC的玻璃化转变温度,起到了良好的增塑效果。     

Using experimental reintroductions to resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics on patch occupancy in fragmented landscapes

Declines of species in fragmented landscapes can potentially be reversed either by restoring connectivity or restoring local habitat quality. Models fitted to snapshot occupancy data can be used to predict the effectiveness of these actions. However, such inferences can be misleading if the reliability of the habitat and landscape metrics used is unknown. The only way to unambiguously resolve the roles of habitat quality and metapopulation dynamics is to conduct experimental reintroductions to unoccupied patches so that habitat quality can be measured directly from data on vital rates. We, therefore, conducted a 15-year study that involved reintroducing a threatened New Zealand bird to unoccupied forest fragments to obtain reliable data on their habitat quality and reassess initial inferences made by modeling occupancy against habitat and landscape metrics. Although reproductive rates were similar among fragments, subtle differences in adult survival rates resulted in λ (finite rate of increase) estimations of <0.9 for 9 of the 12 fragments that were previously unoccupied. This was the case for only 1 of 14 naturally occupied fragments. This variation in λ largely explained the original occupancy pattern, reversing our original conclusion from occupancy modeling that this occupancy pattern was isolation driven and suggesting that it would be detrimental to increase connectivity without improving local habitat quality. These results illustrate that inferences from snapshot occupancy should be treated with caution and subjected to testing through experimental reintroductions in selected model systems.