Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

天津市道路车流量特征分析

车流量是移动源和道路扬尘排放清单计算的一个重要参数,直接影响排放清单的不确定性.为了解天津市道路车流量特征,通过人工摄录法获取天津市一年四季5种不同类型共9条道路的车流量及车型分布信息,并对其特征进行分析.结果表明:天津市不同类型道路之间车流量总体上呈快速路（8 790辆/h）>主干道（4 077辆/h）>外环线（3 335辆/h）>次干道（2 461辆/h）>支路（1 507辆/h）的特征;冬季车流量最大,而春、夏两季相对较小.各类型道路车流量占比最大的车型均为轻型车（76.88%~90.71%）,中型车（5.31%~11.80%）次之,重型车（3.20%~11.31%）最少;快速路和外环线工作日的车流量大于非工作日,并且差异具有统计学意义,呈"周末效应".研究显示:次干道和支路车流量与主干道车流量呈线性相关,在后续进行道路扬尘和移动源清单编制时,可以考虑通过将主干道车流量与次干道、支路拟合的方式减小工作量;此外,主干道、次干道和支路的早高峰,上、下午平峰,中午和晚高峰的车流量差异不大,可将一天划分为白天、夜晚和凌晨3个时段进行统计,从而节约时间和成本.      

突发事件下多种信息交互传播的动力机制与调控策略

针对突发事件下多种信息共存情境中信息交互传播的调控问题,首先界定了该情境中“涌现→传播”过程的组成要素,建立了信息交互关系框架及其系统动力学模型;其次,通过设计和仿真基础情景,将仿真结果与案例进行对比,检验模型的模拟趋势与现实状况的一致性;最后,通过设计和仿真实验情景,考查决策者的关键可控因素对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明:官方渠道所发布信息的可信度、平均个体传播量及群体的立场认知水平,与相信和传播官方渠道信息的人数均正相关,而与相信和传播民间渠道信息的人数均负相关;对各群体数量演化影响的显著性而言,官方渠道信息的平均个体传播量最高,官方渠道信息的可信度次之,群体的立场认知水平较低。     

基于SD-ABMS方法的航空应急医疗转运任务仿真系统

为解决我国航空应急医疗转运演练成本高昂及我国航空医疗转运任务执行机理相关研究不足的问题,依据真实的医疗转运场景,抽象出病患、飞行员、医护、机务、医院负责人、安保、环境等共16种Agent和详细的医疗转运流程;使用ABMS方法对各Agent的离散行为及Agent间的协同行为进行建模,使用SD方法对各Agent的连续行为进行建模, 从微观视角刻画并实现航空应急医疗转运任务仿真模型,并基于Anylogic实现航空应急医疗转运任务系统可视化原型。研究结果展示了航空应急医疗转运任务执行机理,可降低相关演练成本,也可为航空应急医疗转运实时任务评估提供支持。     

气相色谱法测定黄瓜和土壤中代森锰锌的残留及其消解动态分析

采用GC-FPD(S)法测代森锰锌在黄瓜和土壤中的残留,通过优化前处理和检测条件,使方法在0.007 6 mg/L~3.80 mg/L范围内线性良好,在黄瓜和土壤中的方法检出限分别为5.12μg/kg和2.35μg/kg。黄瓜和土壤3个质量比水平的空白加标回收率分别为91.1%~96.5%和82.4%~90.5%,7次测定结果的RSD为5.0%~6.5%和2.4%~4.1%。将该方法用于研究代森锰锌在黄瓜和土壤中的消解动态,得知代森锰锌在黄瓜中的半衰期为3.63 d~4.77 d,在土壤中的半衰期为4.19 d~7.33 d。     

水力空化-Fenton氧化联合超声吸附处理煤气化废水

采用水力空化-Fenton氧化联合超声吸附处理煤气化废水,考察了单独Fenton氧化及单独水力空化工艺条件,并对Fenton氧化、水力空化和水力空化-Fenton氧化工艺处理过程进行了动力学初探。实验结果表明:在反应时间60 min、废水pH 3.0、Fe~(2+)加入量900 mg/L、H_2O_2加入量3 600 mg/L、空化压力0.4 MPa的条件下,水力空化-Fenton处理煤气化含酚废水的COD和苯酚去除率分别为93.05%和90.29%;进一步采用超声吸附处理后,出水COD和苯酚质量浓度分别为92.9 mg/L和4.5 mg/L,达到GB 8978—1996《污水综合排放标准》三级指标。     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

Consequence prediction for dust explosions involving interconnected vessels using computational fluid dynamics modeling

Combustible dust explosions continue to present a significant threat toward operating personnel and pneumatic conveyance equipment in a wide variety of processing industries. Following ignition of suspended fuel within a primary enclosure volume, propagation of flame and pressure fronts toward upstream or downstream interconnected enclosures can result in devastating secondary explosions if not impeded through an appropriate isolation mechanism. In such occurrences, an accelerated flame front may result in flame jet ignition within the secondary vessel, greatly increasing the overall explosion severity. Unlike an isolated deflagration event with quantifiable reduced pressures (vent sizing according to NFPA 68 guidance), oscillation of pressure between primary and secondary process vessels leads to uncertain overpressure effects. Dependent on details of the application such as relative enclosure volumes, relief area, fuel type, suspended concentration, duct size, and duct length, the maximum system pressure in both interconnected vessels can be unpredictable. This study proposes the use of FLame ACceleration Simulator (FLACS) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to provide reliable consequence predictions for specific case scenarios of dust deflagrations involving interconnected equipment. Required minimum supplement to the originally calculated relief area (A_v) was determined through iterative simulation, allowing for reduced explosion pressures (P_red) to be maintained below theoretical enclosure design strengths (P_es).     

Optimization of gas detector placement considering scenario probability and detector reliability in oil refinery installation

Gas detection system is a critical layer of protection in process safety. Leak scenario probability and detector reliability are two key factors in the optimization of gas detector placement. However, they are easily neglected in previous studies, which may lead to an inaccurate evaluation of the optimization solutions. In this study, a stochastic programming (SP) optimization method is proposed considering these two factors. In order to quantitatively represent the probability of leak scenarios, a complete accident scenario set (CASS) is built combining leak sources and wind fields. Then, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method is adopted for consequence modeling of gas dispersion. The Markov model is developed to predict the detector reliability. With the objective of minimal cumulative detection time (MCDT), the SP formulation considering scenario probability and detector reliability (MCDT-SPR) is proposed. By introducing the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, the optimization formulations can be solved. A case study is investigated on a diesel hydrogenation refining unit. Results validate this approach is promising to improve the detection efficiency. This method is more practical and matching with the actual industrial environment, where the leak scenarios and the detector reliability can change dynamically in real process setting.     

Hazard analysis on LPG fireball of road tanker BLEVE based on CFD simulation

In order to research the hydrocarbon fireball characteristic of LPG tanker Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) under different conditions, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the hydrocarbon fireballs from the LPG tanker BLEVE accidents were carried out. Several new different factors, such as the mass of fuel, inlet velocity and airflow velocity, were considered to analyze the influence on the evolution of the characteristics of the fireball and the development of the LPG tanker BLEVE accidents. Results indicate that the fireball with a greater mass of fuel radiates more heat but slower. The large longitudinal diameter of the fireball and high radiation heat flux are observed in case of a faster inlet velocity used for the same mass. The airflow was found to shorten the initial phase of the fireball effectively. Some suggestions were proposed to prevent the LPG BLEVE accidents. Analysis performed show that various parameters like fireball diameter, radiative heat flux and lifting speed of fireball can be predicted well using FDS code.