Renewable Resources and Economic Sustainability: A Dynamic Analysis with Heterogeneous Time Preferences

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the study of economic sustainability and its relationship with natural resources. This paper attempts to shed some light on the issue by taking into account the individual variations in time preferences for consumption and resource amenity. We characterize the long-run steady state, analyze its asymptotic stability, and explore the transational dynamics from any initial state. The welfare implications of the optimal path are also discussed.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in Eastern Turkey: a case study in Gümüşhane

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns in a typical mountain watershed in the Gumushane district along the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by comparing LANDSAT images from 1987 to 2000 and evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1971 and 1987 using GIS and FRAGSTATS™. The results show a general decreasing trend in area of natural land cover types including broadleaf and conifer forests as well as coppice between 1971 and 1987 (0.54%, respectively). In contrast, between 1987 and 2000 this natural land cover types show increasing trend (1.6%). In parallel with forest dynamics, the area of managed land including lowland and upland agricultural areas, rangelands and grasslands increased during the first period and decreased during second period. In terms of spatial configuration, Gümüşhane forests aren’t generally fragmented by intensive forest utilization in the latter periods. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Gümüşhane. Nevertheless, land use pattern significantly changed over time depending on a few factors such as unregulated management actions, social pressure and demographic movements. The study revealed that demographic movements have a major effect on landscape dynamics.     

我国水资源需求量动力学预测及对策建议

水资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础和不可替代的自然资源。要实现党的十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,水资源是必不可少的支撑条件。通过动力学模型,对未来20年我国工业、农业和生活需水量及总需水量进行预测,预测结果表明：按方案1,到2022年我国需水量约为5 500亿m3,按方案2,需水量约为7 400亿m3。而到2022年全国供水能力可能达到6 500亿m3 左右,可供水量为6 100～6 500亿m3 。方案1的预测结果小于可供水量,但这种方案很难实现。方案2的预测结果大于可供水量,出现较大缺口,在GDP增加1%的情况下,需水量增加1 800亿m3 左右,这也是我们面对的现实问题。     

代表性浓度路径情景下宁夏草地动态演变的预测与模拟

西部地区是我国乃至亚洲的重要生态屏障.因此,遏制由于长期过牧导致的草地退化,保障西部地区生态系统功能,促进西部地区畜牧业和经济社会可持续发展具有重要的研究意义.本研究以宁夏回族自治区作为典型区,收集了宁夏土地利用数据、自然环境数据和社会经济数据,创建了联立方程组模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对草地过牧与退牧过程的驱动机制.驱动分析结果显示对于草地过牧过程,气候因素是草地面积退化的重要影响因素,人口压力也在这一过程中起着决定性作用,交通条件较发达的地区,人类活动较频繁,对于草地生态系统破坏也相对较严重;而宁夏退牧过程的主要驱动因素之一是区域原有生态环境,经济要素也是决定退牧意愿的重要影响因素,国家政策是退牧过程的外在推动因素.基于宁夏土地利用规划和1PCC公布的RCPs情景数据,设计估算了规划情景和气候情景下的土地利用需求,然后基于草地动态演变的驱动机理,本文应用土地系统动态(DLS)模拟系统预测了2010-2030年在RCPs情景和规划情景下研究区域草地面积和草地质量的空间分布特征和变化趋势.研究结果表明,规划情景下,研究区域草地面积随时间呈逐渐减少的态势,AIM气候模式下草地面积的变化态势与规划情景相似,但是减少的幅度比规划情景小,而MESSAGE气候模式情景下草地面积变化呈先减少后有小幅增加的态势.三种情景下,草地面积减少的区域主要集中在低密度草区,部分是在中密度草区.总的来看,无论是哪种情景,未来2010-2030年过牧与退牧这种相逆的现象不断减弱,但是并没有消失.这些研究结论将为西部干旱区生态环境保护、草地资源开发利用与保护、畜牧业发展规划提供重要的决策参考信息.     

Number concentration and size distributions of submicron particles in Jinan urban area： Characteristics in summer and winter

The aerosol number concentration and size distribution were measured with the newly developed Wide-range Particle Spectrometer in summer and winter of 2006 at the urban site of Jinan City.Here reported the characteristics of fine particles of the different observation seasons.Relative high number concentrations for the particles in the diameter range of 10-500 nm were observed in both seasons.It was found that the dominant number distributed in particle diameter smaller than 100 nm and the percentage over the number concentration of all air particles is much higher than what has been measured in other urban sites over the world.The number mean diameter in summer was much smaller than in winter,strongly suggesting the different origin of ultrafine particles in different seasons.That is, particles in ultrafine mode mainly came from nucleation and new particle formation in summer while from traffic emission in winter. The diurnal variation also supported this point.Number concentration in the diameter range of 10-200 nm got their peak values at noontime,well correlated with the mixing ratio of SO_2 and the intensity of solar radiation in summer.While in winter,those in the same diameter range showed the main peaks during the traffic hours happened in the morning and evening.     

水幕在隧道中灭火的数值模拟研究

利用CFD软件中的专用FDS软件对水幕在隧道产生火灾进行灭火模拟研究,模拟水幕对隧道中火灾产生的烟气流动速度、烟气浓度以及温度等特性参数的影响,模拟得到水幕能有效地减慢地下隧道中烟雾的扩散和降低烟雾的温度,为地下工事中的人员逃离提供有力的保证,为加强地下工事的防御提供了理论参考。     

电缆隧道火灾数值仿真及分析

电缆隧道灭火以及人员疏散的关键,在于对灾变条件下隧道火灾参数变化的正确预测,特别是火焰、烟气蔓延范围,烟气浓度变化以及有毒气体的扩散范围等参数的预测。为了获得电缆隧道火灾参数,应用美国国家标准和技术研究院(NIST)开发的FDS(Fire Dynam ics Simulator)软件,建立电缆隧道模型,对隧道火灾进行全尺寸模拟,通过对模拟实验数据处理和分析,给出电缆隧道火灾时烟气浓度和氧气浓度,纵向温度的变化规律,火焰蔓延情况以及高温烟气在隧道中水平蔓延规律,为有效救援和紧急疏散以及消防决策提供一定依据。     

Generating sustainable towns from Chinese villages: a system modeling approach

The great majority of China's developing towns will be extensions of already existing villages. With the prospect of hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers projected to leave their villages to become industrial workers in new and expanded towns within the next few years, new challenges will be faced. As expansion and modernization progress, this development moves from the traditional village model that operates not far from resource sustainability to increasingly unsustainable patterns of commerce, urban development, and modern life. With such an unprecedented mass migration and transformation, how can Chinese culture survive? What is to become of the existing million plus agricultural villages? How can these massively unsustainable new industrial towns survive? In the European Commission sponsored research program SUCCESS, researchers worked from the scale of the Chinese village to find viable answers to these questions.     

Simulated Effects of Acidic Solutions on Element Dynamics in Monsoon Evergreen Broad-leaved Forest at Dinghushan,China - Part 1: Dynamics of K,Na, Ca,Mg and P (7 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Acid deposition has become a concern in south China in recent years. This phenomenon has increased to a dramatic extent with the large use of cars and coal- fueled power plants. As a consequence, soils are becoming acidified and their element dynamics will change. A decrease in the nutrient availability will lead to slower plant growth and maybe to a change in the forest type with current species being replaced by new ones with less nutrient requirements. Because of these reasons, it is important to understand how the dynamics of elements will change and what mechanism is part of the process. This knowledge is important for modeling the acidification process and either finding ways to counter it or to predict its consequences. The primary purpose of this study was to provide information about how the dynamics of K, Na, Ca, Mg and P are affected by acid deposition in a typical forest in southern China. Materials and Methods: Experimental soils and saplings were collected directly from the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Dinghushan. All saplings were transplanted individually into ceramic pots in August 2000 and placed in an open area near their origin site. Pot soils were treated weekly from October, 2000 to July, 2002 with an acidic solution at pH 3.05, pH 3.52, pH 4.00 or pH 4.40, or with tap water as a control. The concentrations of SO42-, NO3-, K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and available P and the pH were measured in soil and leachate samples taken at different times. The sapling leaves were collected and their element concentrations were measured at the end of the experiment. Results: Concentrations of soil exchangeable Ca and Mg decreased quickly over time, although only Ca showed changes with the acidic solution treatment and soil exchangeable K was stable because of soil weathering. Leaching of K, Mg and Ca was dependent upon the treatment acidity. Soil available P decreased slowly without any correlation with the acidity of the treatment. All the NO3- added by the treatment was taken up by the plants, but the SO42- added accumulated in the soil. Discussion: Amongst the plant species, Schima superba was little affected by the treatment, the leaf P content was affected in Acmena acuminatissima plants and Cryptocarya concinna was the most susceptible species to soil acidification, with a marked decrease of the leaf K, Ca and Mg concentrations when the treatment acidity increased. Conclusions: Simulated acid deposition affected the dynamics of K, Ca and Mg in the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest. The dynamics of Ca in the soil and of K, Mg and Ca in the soil leachates were affected by the acidic solution treatment. If such a soil acidification occurs, Cryptocarya concinna will be amongst the first affected species, but Schima superba will be able to sustain a good growth and mineral nutrition. Recommendations and Perspectives: Acid deposition will lead to imbalance the nutrient elements in the evergreen broad-leaved forest because of accelerated leaching losses of soil exchangeable Ca and Mg. Measures should be developed to slow down soil acidification or nutrient decrease.     

Temporal Changes in Forest Landscape Patterns in Artvin Forest Planning Unit, Turkey

Understanding the historical dynamics, composition, and environmental disturbances of forest landscapes provides a context for monitoring changes, describing trends, and establishing reference conditions. This study analyses the temporal changes in forest ecosystem structure in Artvin Forest Planning Unit (AFPU), Turkey, during 1972–2002 period based on digitized forest stand type maps using geographic information system (GIS) and interpretation of satellite data. The results showed that there was a net decrease of 450 ha in total forested areas between 1972 and 2002. Forest ecosystem structure changed over time depending on a few factors such as demographic movements, insect outbreaks, dam and road construction, unregulated management actions, and social pressure. In conclusion, temporal changes and the factors affecting these changes should be determined for sustainable management of natural resources.