基于系统动力学的建筑安全监管博弈研究

为研究影响建筑安全的因素,探讨科学的建筑安全监管策略,在建筑企业与政府安全监管部门具有有限理性的前提下,建立建筑安全监管的演化博弈模型。对稳定状态的分析表明,模型并不总是存在演化稳定策略。在此基础上,建立系统动力学模型,借助数据仿真分析不同变量对建筑安全状况的动态影响。研究结果表明,奖惩力度、监管失误率、监管成本、安全投入、惩罚机制等因素的变化对建筑安全状况产生影响。建筑安全长效监管可从加大对监管部门的奖惩力度、减少监管部门的监管失误率、降低建筑安全监管成本、合理控制安全措施投入、设计合理的建筑企业惩罚机制等方面着手。     

氢燃料动力船岸基式加注作业泄漏扩散模拟及影响因素分析

为保障氢燃料动力船加注作业安全,基于FLACS软件构建模拟模型,将模拟与实验结果进行对比,分析泄漏方向、大气稳定度、风速等因素对氢燃料动力船岸基式加注作业泄漏扩散的影响,并基于模拟结果划定加注作业限制区域及警戒区域。研究结果表明:FLACS模拟结果与实验结果吻合较好;大气越稳定,泄漏后的氢气云越难扩散;水平方向上,氢气云扩散距离随风速的增大先小幅增加后降低;垂直方向上,较高风速对氢气云扩散存在促进作用;建议水上加氢站的控制室在原先设计的基础上向内移动5 m以上;建议取沿船长方向125 m、沿船宽方向21 m、沿垂直方向24 m为包络线,设置加注限制区域,该区域内禁止无关人员进入,并严禁任何形式的点火源。     

复合惰气在采空区遗煤中竞争吸附的分子动力学模拟研究*

为明确作用于采空区的复合惰气的竞争吸附,进行不同温度、压力及组分下烟煤对N2、O2、CO2多元气体竞争吸附分子的模拟研究。研究结果表明:当注入压力达到3 MPa后,竞争吸附效果不再明显,为高压注入提供一定的理论基础;随着CO2分压的增大,O2吸附量降低速度逐渐平缓,初步确定最佳注入配比范围为2∶1至3∶1,为进一步结合实际工程中成本等因素确定最佳注入配比提供参考;等量吸附热受吸附条件的影响较小,仅与吸附质本身有关;随着CO2分压的增大,范德华能升高56.9%,分子内能升高78.7%,静电能升高67.2%,CO2对整个系统内的吸附作用强度及吸附量有着较大的影响;随着CO2分压增大,N2竞争吸附能力逐渐弱于O2,竞争吸附能力大小顺序为CO2>O2>N2。     

天津城区2019年2~3月气溶胶粒径分布特征观测分析

气溶胶粒径分布是反映气溶胶粒子来源、形成过程和污染特征的重要物理参数,为研究天津城市地区气溶胶数浓度和谱分布特征及其影响因素,利用扫描电迁移率颗粒谱仪（SMPS）对2019年2~3月天津河西区10~600 nm气溶胶数浓度粒径分布进行了采样分析.结果表明,冬末春初天津市10~600 nm气溶胶数浓度、表面积浓度和体积分数分别为22188.22 cm^-3、1581.08 μm²·cm^-3和70.76μm³·cm^-3,气溶胶数浓度、表面积浓度和体积分数谱均为单峰分布,峰值粒径分别位于109.40、269.00和429.40 nm.核模态（10~20 nm）、爱根核模态（20~100 nm）和积聚模态（100~600 nm）粒子数浓度分别占气溶胶总数浓度的1.40%、52.44%和46.16%.气溶胶数浓度日变化具有明显的周末效应,工作日为三峰分布,峰值出现在道路交通早晚高峰和午后,周末呈双峰分布,峰值出现在道路交通早晚高峰且出现时间比工作日推迟1~2 h,汽车尾气排放对城区气溶胶浓度增加起重要作用.气象条件对天津城区气溶胶粒径分布有明显影响,气溶胶在偏东风和西南风条件下数浓度较高,非降水日相对湿度（RH）增加导致气溶胶谱分布向大粒径方向移动,随着RH由小于20%升高到50%~60%,气溶胶数浓度谱峰值粒径由50nm增大到131 nm,降水对100~200 nm气溶胶粒子有明显的清除作用,降水过程导致气溶胶谱峰值粒径减小到98 nm.     

地铁内楼梯口处全尺寸火灾实验与数值模拟

建立了地铁实体模型，开展了地铁火灾实验研究，测量了站台与站厅之间的楼梯处的速度和温度等火灾参数。同时利用火灾动力学模拟程序软件对地铁站台火灾进行了数值模拟，研究了地铁站台和站厅连接楼梯处温度和烟气速度的变化趋势，并与实验结果作了对比分析，验证了数值模拟结果的有效性。研究结果可为有效控制烟气在地铁中的蔓延和组织人员疏散提供技术支持。     

影响振动环境试验的若干关键技术要点解析

从振动试验方案设计、试验方法和步骤、试验设备选择、振动试验控制方法等几个方面对影响振动试验的关键技术进行了详细的解析;并结合结构动力学阐述了振动试验夹具设计的注意要点。     

Interacting Effects of Phenotypic Plasticity and Evolution on Population Persistence in a Changing Climate

Abstract: Climate change affects individual organisms by altering development, physiology, behavior, and fitness, and populations by altering genetic and phenotypic composition, vital rates, and dynamics. We sought to clarify how selection, phenotypic plasticity, and demography are linked in the context of climate change. On the basis of theory and results of recent empirical studies of plants and animals, we believe the ecological and evolutionary issues relevant to population persistence as climate changes are the rate, type, magnitude, and spatial pattern of climate‐induced abiotic and biotic change; generation time and life history of the organism; extent and type of phenotypic plasticity; amount and distribution of adaptive genetic variation across space and time; dispersal potential; and size and connectivity of subpopulations. An understanding of limits to plasticity and evolutionary potential across traits, populations, and species and feedbacks between adaptive and demographic responses is lacking. Integrated knowledge of coupled ecological and evolutionary mechanisms will increase understanding of the resilience and probabilities of persistence of populations and species.     

WIND DRIVEN RAIN DISTRIBUTIONS AROUND STREET CANOPIES1

ABSTRACT: Wind driven raindrop tracking is used to investigate the microscale redistribution of wind driven rainfalls in street canopies by combining a Eulerian wind flow model and a Lagrangian raindrop tracking model. The former conducts large eddy simulations of the turbulent flows in street canopies, and the latter performs raindrop trajectory calculations by releasing a large number of raindrops into the computational domain. The wind speed model is verified with available wind tunnel measurement. Twenty sets of simulations are carried out for various building configurations and driving rain angles. The simulated results show that the trajectories of smaller raindrops are more slanting and more influenced by the multibuilding perturbed flow field. Impingement of raindrops on the building envelope increases from bottom to top. The height of the front building is a significant factor affecting wind driven rain redistribution. Distinct nonuniform spatial rainfall distributions are found for scenarios with high building configurations and low driving rain angles. The simulated results are further integrated to assess the effect of real raindrop size distributions by weighing the volumetric fraction of a range of drop sizes. There is about 10 percent variation in spatial extent of street canopies. An overall 5 to 17.4 percent increase of the rainfall amount in the upwind zone is observed.     

Effects of life history and reproduction on recruitment time lags in reintroductions of rare plants

Reintroductions are important components of conservation and recovery programs for rare plant species, but their long-term success rates are poorly understood. Previous reviews of plant reintroductions focused on short-term (e.g., ≤3 years) survival and flowering of founder individuals rather than on benchmarks of intergenerational persistence, such as seedling recruitment. However, short-term metrics may obscure outcomes because the unique demographic properties of reintroductions, including small size and unstable stage structure, could create lags in population growth. We used time-to-event analysis on a database of unusually well-monitored and long-term (4–28 years) reintroductions of 27 rare plant species to test whether life-history traits and population characteristics of reintroductions create time-lagged responses in seedling recruitment (i.e., recruitment time lags [RTLs]), an important benchmark of success and indicator of persistence in reintroduced populations. Recruitment time lags were highly variable among reintroductions, ranging from <1 to 17 years after installation. Recruitment patterns matched predictions from life-history theory with short-lived species (fast species) exhibiting consistently shorter and less variable RTLs than long-lived species (slow species). Long RTLs occurred in long-lived herbs, especially in grasslands, whereas short RTLs occurred in short-lived subtropical woody plants and annual herbs. Across plant life histories, as reproductive adult abundance increased, RTLs decreased. Highly variable RTLs were observed in species with multiple reintroduction events, suggesting local processes are just as important as life-history strategy in determining reintroduction outcomes. Time lags in restoration outcomes highlight the need to scale success benchmarks in reintroduction monitoring programs with plant life-history strategies and the unique demographic properties of restored populations. Drawing conclusions on the long-term success of plant reintroduction programs is premature given that demographic processes in species with slow life-histories take decades to unfold.     

啶虫脒在甘蓝和土壤中的残留消解动态研究

采用田间试验及气相色谱检测方法,研究了啶虫脒在甘蓝(Brassica oleracea L.var.capitata L.)和土壤中的残留消解动态.结果表明,啶虫脒在甘蓝和土壤中消解较快.在甘蓝中半衰期为1.4～1.6 d,药后3d消解90%以上;在土壤中的半衰期为1.8～1.9 d,药后7 d消解90%以上.3%啶虫脒可湿性粉剂,45、22.5 g·hm-2,施药2次,药后3、5、7 d苹果和土壤中残留量均小于2 mg·kg-1.