分子动力学中应变分析的统计矩方法及应用

分子动力学模拟研究金属的力学性质,需要采用合适的应变分析方法研究金属的变形特征及其演化规律.金属材料复杂变形的局部应变特征缺乏简便有效的分析手段,整体变形也没有合适的描述方法.本文提出分子动力学中应变分析的统计矩方法,通过统计矩建立了微观量和宏观应变的关联.在单晶单轴加载、纳米多晶剪切和冲击加载下的应用表明,矩应变分析方法可以很好的描述和评估材料的局部变形和整体变形特征,并通过应变不均匀度鉴别材料的局部塑性变形和弹性变形,是深入研究复杂结构材料变形机理的一种有效的通用分析方法.     

基于化学反应动力学机理的中等尺寸甲烷湍流扩散火焰的数值模拟

通过代码修改,在大涡模拟(LES)中嵌入气相化学反应速率、组分热力学性质和输运特性三大机理文件,严格意义上实现甲烷燃烧的四步简化机理与火灾动力学模拟软件(FDS)的成功对接。燃烧模型采用针对多组分燃料的涡耗散概念(EDC)模型,模拟0.3m直径的甲烷湍流扩散火焰,并分别与基于无限快反应速率的总包单步和两步化学反应预测结果对比。分析预测结果可知:四步机理能够很好的适应FDS框架,其模拟结果具有可靠性,时均温度、速度和主要反应物的预测结果高度一致;机理导入后可以预测CO2、H2O以及中间产物CO和H2的浓度,更合理地描述了火灾中气相产物的产生与输运过程。不同反应机制下主产物CO2和H2O浓度对比结果理想,在高温反应区内存在一定的差异,在高温反应区外呈现出高度的一致性。     

基于系统仿真的提升赣江流域水生态承载力的方案设计

保护和改善流域水生态环境已成为环保工作的重要内容和科学研究的重要课题.基于承载力理论和复合生态系统理论,构建了赣江流域水生态承载力系统的概念模型、主导结构模型和系统动力学模型.以2000—2030年为系统仿真区间,仿真结果表明,到2016年赣江流域水生态承载力达到上限,此时可承载人口规模为2566万人,可承载经济规模为11034亿元.赣江流域水生态承载力现状不容乐观,需采取一定的措施.以"节流"、"控污"、"治污"为问题导向,基于"供给管理需求管理"、"末端治理根源治理"、"观念调节行为调节"等公共政策设计的不同视角,初步提出了提升水生态承载力的27个政策干预点,通过政策干预点对系统作用的灵敏性检验,基于识别出的16个灵敏政策干预点,设计了提升赣江流域水生态承载力的综合发展方案.仿真结果表明,到2029年(推后13年)赣江流域水生态承载力达到上限,此时可承载人口规模为2702万人(提升了5.3001%),可承载经济规模为28547亿元(提升了158.7185%).降低人口增长和经济发展速度,提高技术进步和优化产业结构是提升赣江流域水生态承载力的重要途径.     

Organisational aspects of public engagement in European energy infrastructure planning: the case of early-stage CCS projects

Recent years have witnessed a proliferation of studies on public perceptions of carbon capture and storage (CCS), accompanied by efforts to translate such knowledge into toolkits for public engagement and communication. At the same time, both literature and toolkits have paid little attention to the organisational dynamics and views of project implementers with regard to public engagement. Here we investigate the views of project development consortia employees in five European CCS projects, focusing on their experience of organisational norms and structures relating to engagement. Finding that planning for this engagement has, in several cases, been hampered by a lack of shared internal vision on engagement and communication within the project consortia, at least initially, we draw upon the socio-technical approach to technology embedment and new institutional theory, to observe that internal organisational alignment is crucial in multi-organisational projects when seeking effective public engagement and communication. We observe that this aspect of internal organisation is not yet reflected in the toolkits and guidelines designed to aid engagement in CCS projects. Engagement guides need to direct the attention of project implementers not only in specific outward directions, but also towards reflexively considering their own internal structures, perspectives, motivations, expectations and aims in relation to engagement and communication practice.     

The System Dynamics of Nuclear Energy in Singapore

In this article, a system dynamics model is developed to study the complex issues involving nuclear energy in Singapore by assessing four essential aspects, namely (1) Economic, (2) Environment, (3) Social, and (4) Political in various scenarios. The first factor juxtaposes the monetary benefit from deploying nuclear energy with the current situation. The second deals with carbon dioxide emission, nuclear waste, and thermal pollution from nuclear power plant. The third part discusses the safety and social acceptance toward nuclear project, and the last section analyzes the political stability in provision of nuclear energy advent. The proposed system dynamic model incorporates all four components that allow us to run sensitivity analysis based on various scenarios and enables us to gain insight in how each domain evolves with time. Based on the model, we present advantages and disadvantages of possessing nuclear power plants in Singapore and suggest remedies to rectify the drawbacks.     

Experimental and numerical investigation of constant volume dust and gas explosions in a 3.6-m flame acceleration tube

This paper describes an experimental investigation of turbulent flame propagation in propane-air mixtures, and in mechanical suspensions of maize starch dispersed in air, in a closed vessel of length 3.6 m and internal cross-section 0.27 m × 0.27 m. The primary motivation for the work is to gain improved understanding of turbulent flame propagation in dust clouds, with a view to develop improved models and methods for assessing explosion risks in the process and mining industries. The study includes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations with FLACS and DESC, for gas and dust explosions respectively. For initially quiescent propane-air mixtures, FLACS over-predicts the rate of combustion for fuel-lean mixtures, and under-predicts for fuel-rich mixtures. The simulations tend to be in better agreement with the experimental results for initially turbulent gaseous mixtures. The experimental results for maize starch vary significantly between repeated tests, but the subset of tests that yields the highest explosion pressures are in reasonable agreement with CFD simulations with DESC.     

系统科学视角下的城市污水可持续管理研究

立足于城市污水可持续管理思想,利用系统科学方法,理清、分析对城市污水可持续管理的影响因素。以南京市为例,给出了不同政策组合下的城市污水管理的动态结果,并对结果进行了讨论。结果表明,要实现城市污水管理的可持续发展,必须在源头上通过政策设计（如收费）促进污水排放者参加到城市污水管理系统中,注重提高资源化和无害化能力的同时,要加强源头减量的力度。     

Paying the Extinction Debt in Southern Wisconsin Forest Understories

Abstract: The lack of long‐term baseline data restricts the ability to measure changes in biological diversity directly and to determine its cause. This hampers conservation efforts and limits testing of basic tenets of ecology and conservation biology. We used a historical baseline survey to track shifts in the abundance and distribution of 296 native understory species across 82 sites over 55 years in the fragmented forests of southern Wisconsin. We resurveyed stands first surveyed in the early 1950s to evaluate the influence of patch size and surrounding land cover on shifts in native plant richness and heterogeneity and to evaluate changes in the relative importance of local site conditions versus the surrounding landscape context as drivers of community composition and structure. Larger forests and those with more surrounding forest cover lost fewer species, were more likely to recruit new species, and had lower rates of homogenization than smaller forests in more fragmented landscapes. Nearby urbanization further reduced both alpha and beta understory diversity. Similarly, understory composition depended strongly on local site conditions in the original survey but only weakly reflected the surrounding landscape composition. By 2005, however, the relative importance of these factors had reversed such that the surrounding landscape structure is now a much better predictor of understory composition than are local site conditions. Collectively, these results strongly support the idea that larger intact habitat patches and landscapes better sustain native species diversity and demonstrate that humans play an increasingly important role in driving patterns of native species diversity and community composition.     

Using qualitative models to define sustainable management for the commons in data poor conditions

Nearly 50 years after Hardin’s “tragedy of the commons” we have not yet found predictive tools to guide us towards sustainable management of common-pool resources (CPR). We often have a good understanding of the qualitative relationships between the principal actors in socioecological systems (SESs), but classical quantitative approaches require a tremendous amount of data to understand the drivers of SESs sustainability. Here we show that qualitative modelling approaches can provide important governance insights for SESs that are understood but not quantified.We used Loop Analysis to test the outcomes of different management regimes on a simple nature-based tourism SES described by economic, social and environmental variables. We tested the sustainability of different management scenarios on this system and we identified the necessary conditions to achieve it.We found that management regimes where property rights and responsibilities are shared between different stakeholders are more likely to be successful. However, the system is generally highly unstable and it is important to tune each strategy to each particular situation.The conditions for sustainability found across the different systems tested were: a low reinvestment rate of tourist revenues into new infrastructures and a low growth rate of the environment. Management strategies based on maximum sustainable yield, which keep the environment far from its carrying capacity, have less chance to be sustainable.Qualitative models of SESs are powerful diagnostic tools; they can help identifying variables that play an important role in determining socioecological sustainability in data-poor circumstances and guide the design of efficient data collection programmes. Our results highlight the importance of careful planning when designing management strategies for nature-based tourism. The application of one-size-fits-all solutions to every situation is likely to lead to the failure of the commons; however tourism-based SESs can be sustainable if management strategies are tuned to each particular case.     

A survival-analysis-based simulation model for Russian wheat aphid population dynamics

A simulation model for Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), populations is built by integrating survival-analysis-based development and survivor functions and the same-shape reproduction distribution model in the framework of Leslie [Leslie, P.H., 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183–212] matrix structure. Survival analysis is utilized to model both the development and survival of RWA populations, and the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is fitted with the data sets from our laboratory observation of 1800 RWA individuals under 25 factorial combinations of five temperature regimes and five barley plant-growth stages. Rather than using simple age-specific survivor rates as in the traditional Leslie matrix, the survivor functions based on survival analysis describe age-specific, temperature and plant stage-dependent RWA survival probabilities. Similarly, a probability model from survival analysis to estimate the probability that an individual will reach mature adult stage is utilized to describe the development process; this makes the transition from nymphal stage to mature adult stage dependent on RWA age as well as temperature and plant-growth stage.Inspired by the same-shape distribution and rate-summation approach for modeling insect development, a similar approach for modeling insect reproduction under variable temperature is developed. This new same-shape reproduction distribution model incorporates individual variation in reproduction capability, as well as the effects of RWA age, temperature and plant-growth stage. Consequently, the same-shape reproduction distribution model replaces the simple age-specific fecundities in Leslie matrix model. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to introduce survival analysis to simulation modeling in entomology and ecology and also the first to integrate our newly developed same-shape reproduction distribution model into application.