基于系统动力学模型的工业固废管理政策作用仿真

基于系统动力学(SD)原理,首先对工业固体废弃物管理政策与其他各要素间的相互关系进行了分析,构建了因果关系图及流图;在此基础上建立了系统动力学(SD)方程,定义了激励因子和约束因子的概念,明确了其与系统其他各要素间的关系及相关参数的确定方法;最后以辽宁省为例进行实证研究,预测了辽宁省未来工业固体废弃物的产生量、综合利用量、处置量、排放量、贮存量、累积贮存量的变化趋势,对政府的激励和约束政策的变化对工业固体废弃物不同处理方式的作用效果进行了仿真。研究成果对政府科学制定政策,提高我国工业固体废弃物管理的研究水平具有重要理论与现实意义。     

低温等离子体氧化氨气影响因素及动力学研究

采用电晕放电低温等离子体处理模拟氨气恶臭气体,考察了输入功率、初始浓度、气体湿度、停留时间等因素对降解效果和能量效率的影响,同时对反应过程进行了动力学研究。研究表明,输入功率以及停留时间对氨气降解的影响是积极的,但能量效率随着两者的增加先增大后减小。氨气的降解率随着初始浓度的增加而降低,而能量效率随着输入功率的增加而增加。氨气降解率和能量效率均随着气体湿度的增加而增加,当气体湿度为45%时达到最大值,然而随着气体湿度的进一步增加,其降解率和能量效率反而降低。反应尾气中臭氧浓度随着输入功率的增加而不断升高,而氨气的存在却使臭氧浓度有不同程度的降低。对电晕放电低温等离子体处理NH3的反应动力学进行了分析,得到NH3的反应速率常数为kNH3=0.0707 m3/(W·h)。     

北京市人口动态模拟与政策分析

随着城市化进程的加快,我国城市规模不断膨胀,超过1 000万的超大城市不断涌现,城市人口规模过大、增长过快以及带来的城市问题引起社会各界的关注。北京作为一个人口超过2 000万的超大城市,不仅具有超大城市的一般特征,而且具有首都所在城市的特点。本文在厘清北京人口增长机制的基础上,采用系统动力学方法,通过政策模拟,考察不同政策导向对未来北京市人口增长趋势的影响,得到以下结论:1如果保持当前的经济增长速度,并按当前的生产技术水平以及产业结构变化趋势发展,未来北京人口规模将持续快速增长,到2030年将突破3 000万人,2050年将接近5 000万人,城市面临巨大的人口压力。2单纯通过产业结构升级对调控人口作用有限。3适当放缓经济增长速度以及大力提高劳动生产率可以有效控制人口的快速增长,挤出大量的低端劳动力,人口调控效果明显。4户籍制度的适度放开在一定程度上减少了外来人口规模,但对人口总量的减少并没有起到作用。5与单纯采用一种政策调整相比,多种调控政策并举调控人口的效果更佳。由此得到以下几点启示:首先,每个城市都应该有自己的功能定位,决不能搞"大而全"和千城一面,尤其不能将城市经济增长速度和总量作为城市发展的主要目标甚至唯一目标,不顾后果和不择手段地追求GDP。否则城市人口规模的无序扩大就很难避免,也很难治理。对于北京而言,发挥其政治、文化、国际交往以及科技创新中心的首都功能,大力发展现代服务业,提高劳动生产率,优化产业结构才有利于人口的有序发展。另外,政府在人口调控方面必须有所作为,但也不能对人口调控进行大包大揽,取代市场。政府要顺应经济和社会发展的规律,顺势而为,出台相应的系列综合性调控政策。只有这样,才能对人口调控起到更好的效果。     

以吡啶、喹啉和吲哚为单一碳源时反硝化过程中亚硝酸盐积累及动力学研究

以吡啶、喹啉和吲哚为单一碳源,通过摇床实验进行反硝化过程动力学研究。实验结果表明,以吡啶和喹啉为单一碳源的反硝化过程中,NO-2-N的积累率分别达到了53.4%和16.4%;以吲哚为单一碳源的反硝化过程中,NO-2-N的积累现象不明显,最高不超过4%。以NO-3-N+0.6 NO-2-N作为反硝化电子受体,采用基于Monod方程的动态模型进行拟合,拟合曲线与实验测定值相关性良好。其次,采用基于Monod方程的微分方程组模型,也能够很好地拟合3种碳源条件下反硝化过程硝酸盐、亚硝酸盐质量浓度的变化,得到相应的动力学参数。     

Production disruption management for R/M integrated supply chain using system dynamics methodology

The impacts of production disruption in Remanufacturing/Manufacturing (R/M) integrated supply chain on the sales and the methods of production disruption management were studied. A system dynamics model for the R/M integrated supply chain with production disruption was improved by system dynamics methodology. The numerical examples were shown to illustrate the simulation results. The impacts of different recovery times of production disruption on the sales were presented. In order to mitigate the disruption risks and ensure the sales at the needed sales ratio, the methods for setting multi-echelon inventory levels before the occurring of the production disruption and the methods for making back-up plans after the production disruption occurs were given.     

Computational fluid dynamics simulations of hydrogen releases and vented deflagrations in large enclosures

This paper presents model predictions obtained with the CFD tool FLACS for hydrogen releases and vented deflagrations in containers and larger enclosures. The paper consists of two parts. The first part compares experimental results and model predictions for two test cases: experiments performed by Gexcon in 20-foot ISO containers (volume 33 m³) as part of the HySEA project and experiments conducted by SRI International and Sandia National Laboratories in a scaled warehouse geometry (volume 45.4 m³). The second part explores the use of the model system validated in the first part to accidental releases of hydrogen from forklift trucks inside a full-scale warehouse geometry (32 400 m³). The results demonstrate the importance of using realistic and reasonably accurate geometry models of the systems under consideration when performing CFD-based risk assessment studies. The discussion highlights the significant inherent uncertainty associated with quantitative risk assessments for vented hydrogen deflagrations in complex geometries. The suggestions for further work include a pragmatic approach for developing empirical correlations for pressure loads from vented hydrogen deflagrations in industrial warehouses with hydrogen-powered forklift trucks.     

城市地震次生灾害演化机理分析及仿真研究

根据对城市地震次生灾害发生机理的分析,绘制了地震次生灾害演化的因果回路图和存量流量图。在此基础上借助系统动力学仿真软件Vensim PLE,对城市地震次生灾害演化过程建立了系统动力学模型,并进行了模型验证及仿真,得出了不同防震抗灾能力下城市地震次生灾害可能造成的损失情况,为城市防震救灾工作提供参考。     

基于系统动力学和灵敏度模型的生态校园物流分析

在生态校园的研究中,尝试性地采用了把系统动力学模型和灵敏度模型相结合的方法对生态校园物流分析进行研究,通过系统动力学模型分析生态校园内部各要素之间的相互关系并绘制了系统框图;在此基础上运用局部灵敏度模型分析校园系统每个要素的变化,对校园系统影响的灵敏度程度和模拟校园的发展趋势,找出对校园系统影响较大的关键性要素,为生态校园建设和规划提供了重要的参考资料,对优化校园系统的物流起到了指导作用。     

Atmospheric radon in Hong Kong

For the first time in Hong Kong, atmospheric radon concentration was continuously monitored between November 2007 and October 2008. This paper presents the results obtained during the 12-month period. The annual mean atmospheric radon concentration in Hong Kong was found to be 9.3 Bq m⁻³ which was close to the level at neighbouring places like Guangdong and Taiwan. An estimation of the dose arising from atmospheric radon to the Hong Kong population was made. The meteorological effects on the variation of atmospheric radon concentration were discussed. It was found that the origin of the airmass and stability of the local atmosphere played vital roles in the seasonal and diurnal variations respectively, whereas precipitation caused abrupt changes in rainy days. An attempt was also made to find out the contribution of atmospheric radon to the ambient gamma dose rate.     

Spatiotemporal variation of radon and carbon dioxide concentrations in an underground quarry: coupled processes of natural ventilation, barometric pumping and internal mixing

Radon-222 and carbon dioxide concentrations have been measured during several years at several points in the atmosphere of an underground limestone quarry located at a depth of 18 m in Vincennes, near Paris, France. Both concentrations showed a seasonal cycle. Radon concentration varied from 1200 to 2000 Bq m⁻³ in summer to about 800-1400 Bq m⁻³ in winter, indicating winter ventilation rates varying from 0.6 to 2.5 × 10⁻⁶ s⁻¹. Carbon dioxide concentration varied from 0.9 to 1.0% in summer, to about 0.1-0.3% in winter. Radon concentration can be corrected for natural ventilation using temperature measurements. The obtained model also accounts for the measured seasonal variation of carbon dioxide. After correction, radon concentrations still exhibit significant temporal variation, mostly associated with the variation of atmospheric pressure, with coupling coefficients varying from −7 to −26 Bq m⁻³ hPa⁻¹. This variation can be accounted for using a barometric pumping model, coupled with natural ventilation in winter, and including internal mixing as well. After correction, radon concentrations exhibit residual temporal variation, poorly correlated between different points, with standard deviations varying from 3 to 6%. This study shows that temporal variation of radon concentrations in underground cavities can be understood to a satisfactory level of detail using non-linear and time-dependent modelling. It is important to understand the temporal variation of radon concentrations and the limitations in their modelling to monitor the properties of natural or artificial underground settings, and to be able to assess the existence of new processes, for example associated with the preparatory phases of volcanic eruptions or earthquakes.