Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions in China and the abatement measures

The major emission sources of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs in China have been identified, and the emission trends has been estimated. Besides fossil fuel combustion, human respiration and biomass burning are important sources. Some feasible abatement measures on energy conservation, afforestation and biomass recycling have been discussed.     

大气中CO2增加引起全球变暖和海平面上升及其对珠江三角洲可能的影响

本文是根据国内外大量实测数据，说明全世界大气层中二氧化碳不断增多，出现“温室效应”，使全球变暖，近地而大气层气温变化的情况；从而引起海面水温变化，使海洋上冰块瓦和融化，引起海平面上升。按世界各国学者研究的结果，近百年全球近地面大气层气温变化总的趋势是上升，北半球比较明显。海平面孔 有上升的趋势。按近40年中海平面可能上升0.4～1m的预测值，估计了海平面可能对珠江水位、沿海风暴潮潮位及咸潮入侵的影响，进而分析了对珠江三角洲、特别广州可能产生的危害。作者认为全球变暖和海平面上升当前还是一个不确定性问题，宜加强科学研究和实测。     

全球变暖影响下中国自然灾害的发展趋势

在本世纪全球与中国显著变暖和中国境内降水量有所减少影响下，结合经济发展过程中生态系统的恶化，５０年代至９０年代初，中国多种自然灾害包括旱灾、洪涝灾、风暴潮灾、农林生物灾害都在发展加剧，唯寒冻冰雪灾害有所减轻。自然灾害所造成经济损失８０年代已比６０年代成倍增长，９０年代逐步损失达１０００亿元至２０００亿元。下世纪气候进一步变暖，如北方降水少量增加不抵蒸发量的上扬，旱灾仍将继续发展。南方雨量增加特别是暴雨和台风雨的增加，会使洪涝灾害扩大加剧。沿海地区由于海平面上升，海岸带灾害主要是风暴潮存在加剧趋势。农林病虫害也将发展，唯寒冻灾害可大幅度减轻。     

夹竹桃挥发性有机物日变化的测定

探究夹竹桃挥发性有机物(BVOCs)的释放特征可以为景观植物的选择提供依据.于2013年6月10日,使用动态吸附法对夹竹桃中挥发性有机物进行采集,利用GC-MS进行分析,探索其挥发性有机物的日变化规律.结果表明:在夹竹桃的释放物中共检出8大类挥发性有机物,可分为26种,包括EPA重点控制的有害污染物甲苯、乙苯、苯乙烯、苯乙酮、萘、邻苯二甲酸二丁酯等;夹竹桃BVOCs在8:00-10:00释放量最大,在13:00-15:00释放量最小,且不同类型有机物表现出不同的日变化趋势;对邻苯二甲酸二丁酯、乙苯、苯乙烯3种代表物质进行定量分析,这3种物质的平均质量浓度分别为0.019 23mg/m3、0.131 60mg/m3、4.130 20mg/m3.研究表明,夹竹桃会释放少量有害污染物,因而不适合作为景观植物.     

CO2 adsorption using TiO2 composite polymeric membranes: A kinetic study

CO₂ is the main greenhouse gas which causes global climatic changes on larger scale. Many techniques have been utilised to capture CO₂. Membrane gas separation is a fast growing CO₂ capture technique, particularly gas separation by composite membranes. The separation of CO₂ by a membrane is not just a process to physically sieve out of CO₂ through the controlled membrane pore size. It mainly depends upon diffusion and solubility of gases, particularly for composite dense membranes. The blended components in composite membranes have a high capability to adsorb CO₂. The adsorption kinetics of the gases may directly affect diffusion and solubility. In this study, we have investigated the adsorption behaviour of CO₂ in pure and composite membranes to explore the complete understanding of diffusion and solubility of CO₂ through membranes. Pure cellulose acetate (CA) and cellulose acetate-titania nanoparticle (CA-TiO₂) composite membranes were fabricated and characterised using SEM and FTIR analysis. The results indicated that the blended CA-TiO₂ membrane adsorbed more quantity of CO₂ gas as compared to pure CA membrane. The high CO₂ adsorption capacity may enhance the diffusion and solubility of CO₂ in the CA-TiO₂ composite membrane, which results in a better CO₂ separation. The experimental data was modelled by Pseudo first-order, pseudo second order and intra particle diffusion models. According to correlation factor R², the Pseudo second order model was fitted well with experimental data. The intra particle diffusion model revealed that adsorption in dense membranes was not solely consisting of intra particle diffusion.     

近20年江苏省气温和降水资源变化对稻麦生产的影响

利用数理统计及非线性回归模型等方法,探求江苏省近20 a气温和降水资源变化对稻麦生产的影响。结果表明:近20 a平均温度(Tavg)、最高温度(Tmax)和最低温度(Tmin)年增加趋势为0.050℃、0.056℃和0.061℃,降水量(Prec)变化不明显。在近年气候变暖下,冬小麦全生育期和营养生长期呈显著缩短趋势(p<0.05),分别年缩短0.41 d和0.70 d,而生殖生长期年显著延长0.32d(p<0.05)。冬小麦营养生长期和全生育期长短与该时段Tavg、Tmax和Tmin呈显著负相关(p<0.05)。水稻生育期长短变化不大,呈现整体向后推移趋势。2000s与1990s相比,冬小麦生育期缩短,而冬小麦和水稻播期均推迟,因此麦-稻换茬时间延长5 d,稻-麦换茬时间减少3 d。近20 a稻麦产量均呈增加趋势,稻麦周年产量每年极显著增加85.5 kg/hm²(p<0.01)。利用非线性模型分析表明,Tavg、Tmax和Tmin每增加1℃稻麦周年单产分别增产0.47%、0.10%和1.92%,主要是因为冬小麦产量增加幅度大于水稻减产幅度。为合理利用气候资源,可考虑推迟冬小麦播种,防止其冬前旺长。选育晚熟耐高温水稻品种,促进水稻生殖生长,提高产量。     

城市空气悬浮颗粒物时空变化规律及影响因素研究进展

对城市空气颗粒物的季节、日动态变化和空间分布规律作了综述,并探讨了人为活动、气象和特殊天气因素等对城市空气颗粒物水平的影响,最后提出目前关于城市空气悬浮颗粒物的研究中存在的问题及今后研究的发展方向。     

The impact of coastal flooding on conservation areas: A study of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland

This study examines the impact of flooding on land of high conservation value located along part of the southern shoreline of the River Clyde Estuary in western Scotland. This paper hypothesizes that, over the next 50 years, the frequency and extent of coastal flooding will increase due to the gradual effect of global warming and the consequent rise in sea-level and increase in storminess. It is argued that because of the great cost of constructing new flood defence systems it will not be possible to protect all land areas to an equal extent from flooding. A means of ranking different land use will be necessary so that society can make a rational judgement concerning which sections of coastline will be worth protecting. This study provides a methodology that combines an objective ranking of conservation areas using non-economic indicators with a GIS model of flood potential, and permits accurate forecasts of flood losses to conservation areas of different ecological value. The conservation case study used in this paper proposes the use of an ecological weighting value based on five ecological variables each of 10 categories. Tables and maps identify the sites that have been highlighted as consisting of the most ‘valuable’ conservation sites. The methodology makes extensive use of geographical information systems (GIS) to model the predicted areas of flooding and to calculate conservation weighting values of the land areas.     

Impact of global warming on agricultural product markets: stochastic world food model analysis

Climatic change through global warming and drought is a major issue for agricultural production. Most researchers who discuss the effects of such changes on agriculture report estimated yield changes based on crop process models. However, studies focusing on the impact of climatic change on agricultural product markets are very rare. This paper examines the relationship between climatic change and world food markets, i.e., the supply and demand of crops, by using a stochastic version of a world food model, the International Food and Agricultural Policy Simulation Model. The results suggest that variations in the production of maize and soybeans in some major producing countries will be large, and variations in the producer prices of all crops will increase. Countries that suffer higher price risk because of high sensitivity to temperature fluctuations may need to consider changes in cropping patterns.     

Sources and pathways of Sr in the North Atlantic–Arctic region: present day and global warming

The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948–1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of ⁹⁰Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface ⁹⁰Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface ⁹⁰Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980–1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the ⁹⁰Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released ⁹⁰Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 × CO₂). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released ⁹⁰Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.