Forecasting Alpine Vegetation Change Using Repeat Sampling and a Novel Modeling Approach

Global change affects alpine ecosystems by, among many effects, by altering plant distributions and community composition. However, forecasting alpine vegetation change is challenged by a scarcity of studies observing change in fixed plots spanning decadal-time scales. We present in this article a probabilistic modeling approach that forecasts vegetation change on Niwot Ridge, CO using plant abundance data collected from marked plots established in 1971 and resampled in 1991 and 2001. Assuming future change can be inferred from past change, we extrapolate change for 100 years from 1971 and correlate trends for each plant community with time series environmental data (1971–2001). Models predict a decreased extent of Snowbed vegetation and an increased extent of Shrub Tundra by 2071. Mean annual maximum temperature and nitrogen deposition were the primary a posteriori correlates of plant community change. This modeling effort is useful for generating hypotheses of future vegetation change that can be tested with future sampling efforts.     

Externalities of Fugitive Dust

It is known that fugitive dust can cause human health and environmental problems, alone or in combination with other air pollutants. These problems are referred to as ‘external costs’ that have been traditionally ignored. However, there is a growing interest towards quantifying externalities to assist policy and decision-making. With this in mind, the present study aimed at discussing the environmental regulations that deal with fugitive dust, the impact of fugitive dust on human health and global climate system, and the available methods for calculating fugitive dust externalities. The damage cost associated with human health and global environmental problems was predicted based on the environmental strategy priority model. The damage cost estimated by the model ranged from 40 to 374 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust with a mean value of 120 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust. It was also found that PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ have contributed to about 60% and 36% of the estimated damage cost, respectively. The remaining 4% was attributed to both nitrate and sulfate aerosols.     

土壤变暖对土壤微生物活性的影响

讨论了土壤变暖对土壤微生物活性的影响及其后果。许多研究表明,土壤呼吸与土壤温度呈正相关关系。描述这种关系所用的模式有线性回归分析、Q10关系式、幂关系式、Arrhenius关系式及其它关系式,但这些模式通常都不能准确地估计呼吸率。尽管如此,几乎所有的研究都显示土壤温度强烈地影响土壤微生物活性及呼吸。在一定温度范围内,土壤变暖提高土壤微生物活性及呼吸率。解释这种现象的一种机制是微生物群体组成随温度升高而改变。文章最后指出,为了得出更加明确的结论及更加准确地预测全球变暖对土壤的影响,必须进行更深入地研究。     

太湖蓝藻水华预警监测综合系统的构建

近年来随着浅水型湖泊的富营养化进程不断加快,蓝藻水华暴发现象也频繁出现,采用科学、全面的手段对太湖蓝藻暴发进行预警十分必要。根据太湖蓝藻预警监测中使用的现场巡视、卫星遥感、实验室分析、自动监测等监测技术手段,分别建立各自监测系统,结合各监测系统特点和相互关系,对太湖蓝藻水华预警监测综合系统的构建进行了探讨,以期能够更好地开展太湖蓝藻水华预警监测工作,为确保太湖地区饮用水安全,提高环保部门应对太湖蓝藻水华暴发的能力,为政府决策提供技术支持和保障。     

基于自动站资料的深圳灰霾特征对比分析

利用深圳自动气象站的气象要素和深圳大气成分监测系统采集的大气成分数据,分析了深圳城区和郊区灰霾季节变化、日变化差异和不同风向下污染物浓度差异,结果表明,城区由于人类活动频繁导致灰霾日比郊区多,以轻微灰霾偏多为主。秋、冬季城区冷空气活动频繁、能源消耗大,灰霾出现频率是郊区的1~2倍;春季冷空气和海上暖湿气流容易形成对峙,沿海颗粒物更容易吸湿增长,郊区灰霾频率反而比城区高25%;夏季对流强、降水频密,城郊差异最小。城区灰霾频率受早晚交通高峰期影响,日变化呈双峰型。而郊区受太阳辐射和光化学反应影响大,呈单峰型。偏北风条件下污染物浓度明显升高,偏南风带来的清洁空气使得颗粒物浓度降幅明显。     

Media Use and Public Perceptions of Global Warming in India

Media plays a vital role in informing the public about environmental threats. Although climate change is a global problem, developing countries such as India are often more vulnerable to the impacts due to poverty, illiteracy, and low public awareness. Using data from a nationally representative survey in India, this paper explores the relationships between media use, issue attention, and trust in informational sources on one hand and science-based climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support on the other. Results suggest that the Indian media, through consistent and accurate coverage of global warming using trusted sources, can play a positive role in increasing public engagement among a largely unaware population. Implications for climate change communication in India are discussed.     

Addressing concerns about climate policies: the possibilities and perils of responsive accommodation

Responsive accommodation is a political strategy that addresses concerns about a policy proposal by incorporating amendments that address those concerns. This approach can broaden the policy’s appeal, but is strategically risky, as it can alienate the policy’s base of support. We examine this strategy and its application in the politics of climate change. Using a novel survey experiment, relative public support is evaluated for two amendments to a carbon tax proposal – revenue neutrality assurances and a carbon tariff – designed to ease concerns about taxes and global competitiveness. Analysis shows that support for a carbon tax increases when coupled with a carbon tariff, but decreases among some of the policy’s supporters when described as revenue-neutral. These results suggest that policymakers using a responsive accommodation strategy must carefully weigh its possible risks and rewards in their particular context.     

河北廊坊地区大气污染物变化特征与来源追踪

为了解河北省廊坊地区大气污染水平、变化特征以及污染物来源,2009年7月—2010年6月对该地区大气中NO、NO_x（NO_x=NO+NO₂）、O₃、SO₂和PM₁₀进行了连续在线观测,并用统计方法和后向轨迹模拟对所获数据进行分析。结果表明,一次污染物NO、NO_x、SO₂和PM₁₀浓度具有相似的季变化和日变化,冬季浓度最高,季节日均值分别为（57±53）、（127±84）、（69±340）和（181±129）μg/m³;二次污染物O₃夏季浓度最高,日小时均值最高值季节日平均为（99±39）μg/m³。一次污染物浓度日变化呈早晚双峰型,冬季,变化幅度最大;二次污染物日变化为单峰型,最大值出现在夏季午后。夏季受东南气流影响,往往造成该地区O₃超标;冬季,廊坊和天津污染具有较高一致性,出现区域性大气复合污染。廊坊地区大气污染除受本地排放影响,还受到周边地区污染物输送的影响,其在京津两大城市间对大气污染的缓冲作用也不可小觑。     

北京市大气气态汞变化特征

采用Tekran 2537X大气汞分析仪在线测量北京市城区大气中气态元素汞(GEM,简称大气汞) 浓度,研究大气汞浓度随不同气象条件的变化特征。通过分析2016年10月—2017年9月大气汞监测数据发现,该监测点全年大气汞浓度为0.48～16.25 ng/m³,均值为(3.41±1.79)ng/m³。春季、夏季、秋季和冬季大气汞浓度均值依次为2.93 、2.95、4.27、3.37 ng/m³,其中,秋季大气汞浓度明显高于其他季节 。秋季大气汞浓度显著偏高可能由不利的大气扩散条件导致。大气汞夜间浓度显著高于白天浓度。同时,将大气汞与SO₂、CO及PM_2.5进行相关性分析,发现大气汞浓度变化趋势与SO₂、CO和PM_2.5呈显著正相关。结合风向和风速进行污染来源分析,得到该点位大气汞在西南和东北方向上受人为排放源影响较大。污染源类型分析表明,冬季大气汞与CO同源性强,主要来自本地供暖用煤。     

Landscape–seascape dynamics in the isthmus between S?rkapp Land and the rest of Spitsbergen: Will a new big Arctic island form?

Transformation of the glaciated isthmus between Sørkapp Land and the rest of Spitsbergen since 1900 is described. The landscape–seascape dynamics depends on the glacial recession determined by climate warming after the Little Ice Age (i.e., since the beginning of the twentieth century, and especially since the 1980s). The isthmus has been narrowed from 28 km in 1899–1900 to 6.2 km in 2013, and lowered by 60–200 m from 1936 to 2005. Two isthmus’ glaciers will have melted, given the current thermic conditions, by 2030–2035. It cannot be ruled out that Sørkapp Land will become an island after that period, because the altitude of the glaciers’ bedrock is close to the sea level. The disappearance of this huge ice mass, even without origin of a sound and island, will lead to a great transformation of the landscape and the ecosystem.