估计近场地震动的统计—经验格林函数法

本文提出统计-经验格林函数法,用以估计缺乏小震记录场点在大震时的地震动时程。统计-经验格林函数的富里哀幅值谱从其它类似场地获得的小震记录的富里哀谱的衰减关系中得到,其相位谱则直接取自小震记录的相位谱。本文分别用经验格林函数法和统计-经验格林函数法,用迁安台记录到的1976年唐山地震的三次余震(M_L 5.8、M_L 5.7和M_L 5.4)的加速度记录,合成唐山地震的最大余震滦县地震(M_s 7.1)时迁安台的加速度时程曲线,合成结果说明了所提方法的可行性。     

Considerations for preserve design based on the distribution of rare plants in Great Smoky Mountains National Park,USA

Park design principles are proposed on the basis of consideration and analysis of rare plant species in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. Rare species richness can be used as a simple measure of preservation success. A semilogartihmic species-area model for the Smokies was used in this analysis. Species richness would increase logarathmically with expansion of the national park area. An analysis of the relationship between species richness and the distribution of geologic and topographic features in the national park was also reported. An asymptotic relation was documented for the accumulation of newly recorded rare and endangered vascular plant species in the Smokies region up to 1978. Several multiple regression linear models predicted rare vascular plant species richness in Great Smoky Mountains National Park from area and topographic variates.Preserve design criteria can be based upon species-area, environmental gradient, and natural features distribution patterns for the specific taxa and biogeographic region under consideration. In addition, natural history characteristics for particular vulnerable species must be assessed. Rather than concentrating on the preservation of undocumented immigration and extinction processes, preserve design should be directed towards protecting geographic components and gradient patterns characteristic of a region.     

基于序关系法和熵值法的机场安全管理能力综合评价

为了客观科学地评价机场安全管理能力,研究了机场系统构成和安全管理概况,参考民航规章和专家咨询意见,确定安全管理能力的影响因素,建立了由4个准则层和23个具体指标组成的机场安全管理能力评价指标体系,结合实地调研结果及专家意见确定了各指标的测评方法和评分标准。根据序关系分析法和熵值法的特点,参考其他文献,提出了序关系分析法和熵值法相结合的、一种基于方差最大化的主客观赋权法来确定指标权重,构建了机场安全管理能力线性评价模型。结果表明,不同安全管理能力二级指标的变化对安全管理能力的影响程度不同,其综合权重大小降序排列为组织管理能力、人员安全能力、设备运行能力、环境保障能力。以长沙黄花国际机场为例进行评价,评价结果显示该模型具有可行性,能为机场安全管理工作提供参考。     

Linkages Between Nutrients and Assemblages of Macroinvertebrates and Fish in Wadeable Streams: Implication to Nutrient Criteria Development

We sampled 240 wadeable streams across Wisconsin for different forms of phosphorus and nitrogen, and assemblages of macroinvertebrates and fish to (1) examine how macroinvertebrate and fish measures correlated with the nutrients; (2) quantify relationships between key biological measures and nutrient forms to identify potential threshold levels of nutrients to support nutrient criteria development; and (3) evaluate the importance of nutrients in influencing biological assemblages relative to other physicochemical factors at different spatial scales. Twenty-three of the 35 fish and 18 of the 26 macroinvertebrate measures significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with at least one nutrient measure. Percentages of carnivorous, intolerant, and omnivorous fishes, index of biotic integrity, and salmonid abundance were fish measures correlated with the most nutrient measures and had the highest correlation coefficients. Percentages of Ephemeroptera–Plecoptera–Trichoptera individuals and taxa, Hilsenhoff biotic index, and mean tolerance value were macroinvertebrate measures that most strongly correlated with the most nutrient measures. Selected biological measures showed clear trends toward degradation as concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen increased, and some measures showed clear thresholds where biological measures changed drastically with small changes in nutrient concentrations. Our selected environmental factors explained 54% of the variation in the fish assemblages. Of this explained variance, 46% was attributed to catchment and instream habitat, 15% to nutrients, 3% to other water quality measures, and 36% to the interactions among all the environmental variables. Selected environmental factors explained 53% of the variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Of this explained variance, 42% was attributed to catchment and instream habitat, 22% to nutrients, 5% to other water quality measures, and 32% to the interactions among all the environmental variables.     

区域生态环境评价的灰色关联投影模型

区域生态环境评价是实现全面环境管理，协调区域经济发展与生态环境保护．实现区域可持续发展的重要手段。由于评价所涉及的地域复杂性和因素多样性，许多评价方法和体系都处于不断探索和发展之中。区域生态环境系统是一个灰色系统，包括了自然、经济和社会等方面具有信息不确知性和不完全性的因素。基于灰色系统理论和矢量投影原理，建立了区域生态环境评价的灰色关联投影模型。该模型将评价样本及各级质量标准视为矢量．分别向同一矢量(理想样本)进行投影。根据投影值的大小，确定样本所属的生态环境质量级别及样本间的优劣排序。以巢湖流域为个案，在建立生态环境评价指标体系和标准的基础上，运用所建模型对其生态环境质量现状进行了评价，结果与实际情况相吻合。即巢湖流域总体以及分区合肥市、六安市的生态环境质量为4级，分区巢湖市为5级。研究表明，灰色关联投影模型对于多指标的区域生态环境质量评价是科学的、有效的，具有一定的推广和实用价值。     

公众环境意识与可持续发展关系初探

目前,国内存在的各种环境问题,归根到底是由于发展战略的不同所致,人们开始重新去认识和评价传统发展战略的局限性,标志着人类文明即将步入一个被称之"环境文明"新的历史时代.历史文化传统和经济发展水平决定公众环境意识,公众的环境意识直接影响可持续发展战略的实施,如何增强,提出决策和建议,通过大力开展环境宣传教育,提高公众环境意识,可持续发展,实现可持续发展的战略.     

外源性污染对太湖梅梁湾水质影响的定量化

通过太湖的水量水质数学模型,模拟了梅梁湾内主要的入湖污染源———直湖港、武进港和梁溪河排入的污染物质的迁移、转化规律;分析了梅梁湾中梅园、小湾里、闾江口、拖山4个监测点水质浓度受直湖港、武进港和梁溪河排污影响程度的大小;并分别建立了监测点污染物浓度与排污口排污量的响应关系曲线和响应关系表达式。通过这些结论可以方便的定量的计算出在排污口排污量发生变化的情况下监测点水质浓度的变化量,为合理控制外源污染物质的入湖量提供了技术支持。     

江西食物生产波动特征与效率研究

食物波动与效率是食物安全的重要研究内容。1993~2003年江西省平均食物生产全要素相对生产率为0.974,其规模效益基本上呈现常数规模效益与规模效益递增交替波动现象。灰色关联分析表明,粮食产量、油料产量、肉类产量、糖料产量等与食物总量具有显著关联性,其灰色关联序为：粮食产量＞油料产量＞肉类产量＞糖料产量＞禽蛋产量＞水果产量＞牛奶产量,所以要保证食物总量安全,必须首先保障粮食、油料、肉类等的生产。     

基于AHP和比较可能度关系的列控车载系统安全可靠性分析

列控车载系统是保证行车安全的重要系统,其对安全可靠性的要求极高。从人、机和环境3个方面,针对列控车载系统的特点,在分析列控车载系统各安全影响因素的基础上,利用层次分析法建立各影响因素间的关联关系,并充分考虑指标环境的不确定性和决策者思维的模糊性,构建三角模糊数互补判断矩阵。其次,运用三角模糊数比较可能度关系理论,集结所有指标比较的可能度,构建可能度关系比较矩阵。利用三角模糊数矩阵转换关系将可能度关系比较矩阵转换为模糊一致性判断矩阵,在此基础上求解各指标的各层单排序及总排序向量。最后,结合具体算例指出列控车载系统安全可靠性的关键影响因素,以及实际运行当中可能存在的问题并提出决策优化建议。     

中国大陆地震检测能力的新进展

被普遍记录的最小震级是表征地震检测能力的重要标志。基于地震频度-震级关系统计了地震观测系统的检测率。引进了相应于70.7%检测率的系统震级下限参量Mr以定量表征地震实际观测能力。以1970-2009年40年来中国大陆地区的地震观测目录为基础数据,分三个时间段客观统计了地震台网的观测水平,展示了中国大陆地震检测能力的地理分布。