测度可持续发展的资本指标体系

本文运用人地关系协调分析法与经济分析法,特别是与柯布－道格拉斯生产函数相结合,提出了可持续的人均国内生产总值概念,探讨了发展中人文资本、自然资本相互协调、相互依存的关系特征,在此基础上建立了测度可持续发展的资本指标系统。     

汶川地震震损水库土坝动力反应与几何坝形的经验关系

在5·12汶川地震后的四川省水库土坝震害调查成果的基础上,选取汶川地震中受损的有完整资料的96座水库土坝为研究对象,应用等效线性模型对土坝进行了二维动力反应分析。选择3条有代表性的汶川地震实测记录,以三水准峰值加速度输入,得到土坝的动力反应(放大系数、最大动剪应力)与土坝几何形状(宽高比、上游坡比、坝高)间的经验关系。结果表明,土坝放大系数和最大动剪应力随着宽高比和上游坡比的增大而减小,随着坝高的增大而增大;输入波的频谱和峰值强度均对土坝动力反应与其几何形状的经验关系有重要影响。     

QSPR在混合物典型燃爆特性预测中的研究进展

为全面了解定量结构-性质关系（QSPR）方法在混合物燃爆特性预测中的研究现状,展望其发展趋势,综述其在混合物闪点、爆炸极限与自燃温度预测中的国内外研究进展,分析预测目标参数的选择、数据收集、描述符计算和筛选以及模型建立和验证等方面的不足与研究方向。结果表明:QSPR在混合物燃爆特性预测中尚处于起步阶段,当前研究的首要限制是混合物燃爆特性参数实验数据样本不足,关键点及难点是混合物结构的准确表征,未来研究应关注的重点是大量数据源统一的数据样本的获取方法、非加和性混合物分子描述符的计算方法以及机器学习等非线性建模方法。     

酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的定量结构-活性相关研究

测定了酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的logIC50值,以量子化学参数为自变量,应用偏最小二乘法（PLS）,建立了酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的定量结构-活性相关（QSAR）模型。模型所提取的PLS主成分所能解释的因变量总方差的比例Qc2um为0.820,表明模型具有较好的稳定性和预测能力。模型的结果表明,影响酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的主要因素是logkow、CCR和Ehomo,酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的logIC50随着分子logkow的增大而减小,随着Ehomo和CCR的增大而增大。     

Simultaneous nitrification and denitrification in step feeding biological nitrogen removal process

The simultaneous nitrification and denitrification in step-feeding biological nitrogen removal process were investigated under different influent substrate concentrations and aeration flow rates.Biological occunenee of simultaneous nitrification and denitrification was verified in the aspect of nitrogen mass balance and alkalinity.The experimental results also showed that there was a distinct linear relationship between simultaneous nitrification and denitrification and DO concentration under the conditions of low and high aeration flow rate.In each experimental run the floc sizes of activated sludge were also measured and the results showed that simultaneous nitrification and denitriflcation could occur with very small size of floc.     

我国环境影响评价与社会稳定风险评估制度关系的思考

环境影响评价制度和社会稳定风险评估制度作为预防和控制环境影响、创新社会风险管理的重要制度,实施以来发挥了重要作用,但也出现了工作边界和内容范围交叉的问题。尤其是近年来,环境污染焦虑引发社会风险事件的建设项目不断增多,导致两者的"天然联系"愈发紧密,工作存在模糊地带的问题愈发凸显,致使建设项目行政审批繁复、执行力差。在梳理环评、稳评的发展历程和存在问题的基础上,深入分析了环评和稳评的法律地位、适用范围、评价目标、评价内容、实施主体和程序上的异同,剖析了两者在制度设计和内容衔接方面的关系,并从理清工作边界职责、环境社会风险评估结果共享、强化稳评公众参与等方面提出了环评和稳评政策衔接的建议,为政府有效实施建设项目环境、社会监管提供决策参考。     

工伤事故灾害空间分布特征及其与经济增长的关联性

以经济区域为基本单元,在对工伤事故灾害和经济增长空间分布特征描述的基础上,采用面板回归工具分析两者的空间关联性。研究结果证明:工伤事故灾害与经济增长规模之间存在梯度空间差异规律,经济增长对工伤事故灾害有重要影响,并且不同经济增长对工伤事故灾害的影响存在较大差异性,工业化、经济一体化程度和人力资本素质的区域不均衡是造成工伤事故灾害空间分布差异的重要变量。     

偶氮染料对斜生栅藻的毒性作用及结构活性相关性研究

为了揭示不同结构染料对水生生态系统的毒性作用,研究９种偶氮类及２种蒽醌类染料对斜生栅藻的生长抑菌作用,并通过剖析毒性一结构之间的相关关系,探讨了偶氮染料的毒作用机理,１１种染产对斜生栅藻的４８ｈＥＣ５０在１．０９－４１．２２ｍｇ．Ｌ＾－１之间,偶氮染料分子中所包含偶氮键的个数及芳香环上取代基的亲水性和电性均影响染料的毒性,进一步证实偶氮染料的毒同理为Ｎ－Ｎ键不宾为一ＮＨ２后,形成Ｎ＋离子活性民生物     

Management of marine cage aquaculture

Goal, Scope and Background Marine cage aquaculture produces a large amount of waste that is released directly into the environment. To effectively manage the mariculture environment, it is important to determine the carrying capacity of an aquaculture area. In many Asian countries trash fish is dominantly used in marine cage aquaculture, which contains more water than pellet feed. The traditional nutrient loading analysis is for pellet feed not for trash fish feed. So, a more critical analysis is necessary in trash fish feed culturing areas. Methods Corresponding to FCR (feed conversion rate), dry feed conversion rate (DFCR) was used to analyze the nutrient loadings from marine cage aquaculture where trash fish is used. Based on the hydrodynamic model and the mass transport model in Xiangshan Harbor, the relationship between the water quality and the waste discharged from cage aquaculture has been determined. The environmental carrying capacity of the aquaculture sea area was calculated by applying the models noted above. Results Nitrogen and phosphorus are the water quality parameters considered in this study. The simulated results show that the maximum nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were 0.216 mg/L and 0.039 mg/L, respectively. In most of the sea area, the nutrient concentrations were higher than the water quality standard. The calculated environmental carrying capacity of nitrogen and phosphorus in Xiangshan Harbor were 1,107.37 t/yr and 134.35 t/yr, respectively. The waste generated from cage culturing in 2000 has already exceeded the environmental carrying capacity. Discussion Unconsumed feed has been identified as the most important origin of all pollutants in cage culturing systems. It suggests the importance of increasing the feed utilization and improving the feed composition on the basis of nutrient requirement. For the sustainable development of the aquaculture industry, it is an effective management measure to keep the stocking density and pollution loadings below the environmental carrying capacity. Conclusions The DFCR-based nutrient loadings analysis indicates, in trash fish feed culturing areas, that it is more critical and has been proved to be a valuable loading calculation method. The modeling approach for Xiangshan Harbor presented in this paper is a cost-effective method for assessing the environmental impact and determining the capacity. Carrying capacity information can give scientific suggestions for the sustainable management of aquaculture environments. Recommendations and Perspectives It has been proved that numerical models were convenient tools to predict the environmental carrying capacity. The development of models coupled with dynamic and aquaculture ecology is a requirement of further research. Such models can also be useful in monitoring the ecological impacts caused by mariculture activities. ESS-Submission Editor: Hailong Wang (hailong.wang@ensisjv.com)     

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land‐use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate‐change mitigation

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land‐use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate‐change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate‐change impacts; however, these policies will influence land‐use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land‐use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land‐use changes (1500–2005) based on the global gridded land‐use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land‐use changes under alternative climate‐change scenarios (2005–2100). Future land‐use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26‐58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land‐use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate‐change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species–area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land‐use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land‐use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land‐use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.