南海市耕地数量变化驱动力的定量分析

分析了南海市耕地数量变化的特点，并用定性与定量相结合的方法进一步探讨了耕地数量变化的驱动力。结果表明，南海市耕地数量的变化与珠江三角洲耕地数量变化的时间基本一致且与经济发展同步。经济发展、人口增长、基础设施建设及农业结构调整是耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。     

中国化工产业园区化的驱动机制:基于社会-生态系统框架下的博弈论分析

化工产业园区化是政府合理规范化工园区且将化工园区外化工生产企业关停并搬迁至化工园区内的产业集聚化,是解决目前中国化工产业安全事故频发、环境污染严重等问题,推进化工产业转型升级的重要政策之一。中国化工产业园区化的社会—生态系统框架刻画了化工园区、化工产品、化工园区管委会、企业和公众四个核心子系统的关联,在此基础上,中国化工产业园区化的博弈模型将参与者简化为政府(包括化工园区管委会)、企业(化工生产企业)和公众(化工生产企业现址影响半径内的居民群体),并分别构建了政府与企业间的博弈模型与公众参与下的政府与企业间的博弈模型。根据模型推论,此两类情景博弈的纳什均衡都可以为(政府行政政策,企业按期搬迁入园)或(政府经济政策,企业按期搬迁入园)。中国化工产业园区化的驱动机制,是在作为外在驱动主体的政府和公众的引导和监督下,作为内在驱动主体的化工生产企业,在各驱动因素的协同作用下,实现其"按期搬迁入园"的机制。进而得出化工生产企业与化工园区"按期匹配搬迁入园"、提升化工园区公共服务能力、差异化地一企一策及建立公众和企业与政府的三方对话机制的四点政策建议。     

含内热源松散煤体热湿迁移特性研究

为研究松散煤体内部热湿迁移规律,建立松散煤体多场-相变-扩散耦合数学模型,对热力驱动下的温、湿度场时空演变规律进行仿真研究;通过热湿迁移特性实验平台,对数值模拟结果的有效性与准确性进行验证。研究结果表明：温度相对误差小于5%,含湿量相对误差小于8%;松散煤体温度逐渐升高,温升速率逐渐减小,温度最终趋于稳定值,沿轴线方向温度呈指数性降低;松散煤体湿度场可分为煤体含水率和空气含湿量,在空间上可分为含水率减少区、含水率增大区和含水率不变区,随着计算进行,峰值含水率逐渐增大且向远离热源方向移动;含湿量相较于实验初期均有所增大,沿轴线方向先呈线性降低,后呈指数性降低且线性区域越来越大,指数性区域越来越小。     

城市生活垃圾处理能力提升的驱动因素研究——基于2004—2020年30个省份的实证分析

提升末端生活垃圾处理能力,走出城市“垃圾围城”之困,一直是地方政府关切的核心议题。为探究城市生活垃圾处理能力的影响因素及其时空差异,从“政府能力系统”视角出发,围绕需求驱动、经济驱动、政策驱动、技术驱动四个维度,提出相关研究假设,并运用2004—2020年30个省份的面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现：生活垃圾清运量、人均GDP、地方环保支出、政策文本出台数量、无害化处理厂数量以及市容环卫专用车辆数均对城市生活垃圾处理能力的提升具有促进作用。在时间变化上,2004—2007年为生活垃圾处理能力初创阶段,受到经济、政策与技术驱动因素的显著影响; 2008—2016年为生活处理能力缓慢提升和局部发展阶段,持续受到技术驱动因素的显著作用;2017—2020年为处理能力全面提升阶段,需求、经济与技术因素均呈现出显著促进作用。在区域变化上,经济驱动的影响效应由东部向西部逐渐减弱,需求驱动、政策驱动因素只在东部地区影响显著,技术驱动因素对不同区域的生活垃圾处理能力均具有显著促进作用。最后,研究从源头减量、资金投入、政策倾斜与技术创新等方面,对促进中国城市生活垃圾处理能力的发展提供了相应的政策建议。     

考虑驾驶方式的车辆与航空器交叉冲突评估*

为量化不同驾驶方式下车辆与航空器行驶风险,提出车辆与航空器交叉运行冲突评估模型,该模型将特种车辆驾驶方式分为激进、稳定、保守3类,综合驾驶特性和管制规则定义车辆速度演化规律,结合运行场景、间隔配备等要素确定冲突条件,并基于航空器与车辆实时速度、位置变化构造冲突评估模型。研究结果表明:冲突评估模型能够计算车辆与航空器在十型交叉口的冲突概率;激进方式下车辆先于航空器通过交叉口,风险概率均值相对最大,为0.679;保守方式下航空器先于车辆通过交叉口,最大间隔是安全间隔的4.7倍;稳定驾驶方式可兼顾安全和效率。本文模型能再现十型道口车辆与航空器交叉运行冲突产生、发展及解脱过程,计算结果可用于场面实时冲突识别和预警,能够为机场危险源识别和风险管控提供依据。     

Adaptive response criteria in road hazard detection among older drivers

Objectives: The majority of existing investigations on attention, aging, and driving have focused on the negative impacts of age-related declines in attention on hazard detection and driver performance. However, driving skills and behavioral compensation may accommodate for the negative effects that age-related attentional decline places on driving performance. In this study, we examined an important question that had been largely neglected in the literature linking attention, aging, and driving: can top-down factors such as behavioral compensation, specifically adaptive response criteria, accommodate the negative impacts from age-related attention declines on hazard detection during driving?

Methods: In the experiment, we used the Drive Aware Task, a task combining the driving context with well-controlled laboratory procedures measuring attention. We compared younger (n = 16, age 21–30) and older (n = 21, age 65–79) drivers on their attentional processing of hazards in driving scenes, indexed by percentage of correct responses and reaction time of hazard detection, as well as sensitivity and response criteria using signal detection analysis.

Results: Older drivers, in general, were less accurate and slower on the task than younger drivers. However, results from this experiment revealed that older, but not younger, drivers adapted their response criteria when the traffic condition changed in the driving scenes. When there was more traffic in the driving scene, older drivers became more liberal in their responses, meaning that they were more likely to report that a driving hazard was detected.

Conclusions: Older drivers adopt compensatory strategies for hazard detection during driving. Our findings showed that, in the driving context, even at an older age our attentional functions are still adaptive according to environmental conditions. This leads to considerations on potential training methods to promote adaptive strategies that may help older drivers maintain performance in road hazard detection.     

Relationship between neuropsychological tests and driver's license renewal tests in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To determine whether the standard Spanish driving test (ASDE test) was able to identify patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) at risk of unsafe driving and to examine the relationship between the ASDE test and the Useful Field of View (UFOV) as well as with a battery of neuropsychological tests in drivers with PD.

Methods: Thirty-seven patients with PD and 33 controls matched by age and education level were included in an observational study. All participants were active drivers and patients with PD underwent study procedures after taking the medication in the “on” period. Subjects with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤ 24 were excluded. Neuropsychological tests (Repeatable Battery for Neuropsychological Status [RBANS], Trail Making Test [TMT-A and -B], and Block Design test), driving performance tests (ASDE Driver Test and UFOV), and daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale) were assessed.

Results: The PD group performed significantly worse than healthy controls in the ASDE Motor Coordination tests. No significant differences were observed in anticipation speed, multiple reaction time, concentrated attention, and resistance to monotony. All participants successfully completed the UFOV tests. Statistically significant differences between patients with PD and controls were found in processing speed (UFOV1; P =.03) and more patients with PD were found in the categories of higher driving risk levels (P =.03). In addition, patients with PD showed worse scores than healthy controls in visuospatial capacities (Line Orientation), psychomotor speed (Coding and TMT-A), memory (List Recognition, Story Recall), and executive function (TMT-B). The driving tests (ASDE and UFOV) showed a low sensitivity and a high specificity but a higher percentage of patients in the PD group failed in multiple reaction time, concentrated attention, and resistance to monotony. In addition, 18.9% of patients with PD showed a cutoff of 4 for UFOV risk. In the discriminant analysis, Line Orientation (visuospatial/constructive domain) and Figure Recall (delayed memory) were found to be statistically significant with a rate of correct classification of unsafe drivers with PD of 78.2%. In addition, normal results on the Line Orientation item were associated with a 1.5 times higher probability of non-risky driving in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions: At early stages of the disease, about 19% of patients with PD showed difficulties that may affect their driving capabilities. Line Orientation and Figure Recall are useful to alert clinicians to the risk of unsafe driving. For this reason, patients with PD should be evaluated for driving abilities more regularly to determine the extent of deficits that may influence driving performance.     

Driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs in the eastern part of Denmark in 2015 and 2016: Abuse patterns and trends

Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the frequency of psychoactive drugs and alcohol in drivers under suspicion of driving under the influence of drugs and alcohol in 2015 and 2016 in the eastern part of Denmark. The trends in the number of traffic cases sent for drug analysis since 2000 and alcohol analysis since 2011 are also discussed.

Methods: Blood samples from drivers suspected of being under the influence of alcohol and/or medication and/or illicit drugs in 2015 and 2016 were investigated as requested by the police. The blood samples were screened for alcohol and/or tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) alone, for other drugs (covering all drugs, except THC, listed in the Danish list of narcotic drugs), or for THC and other drugs. Age and gender were also recorded. The number of drug traffic cases since 2000 and the number of alcohol cases since 2011 were extracted from our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS).

Results: In total, 11,493 traffic cases were investigated. Alcohol and/or drugs exceeded the legal limit in 9,657 (84%) cases. Men constituted 95% of the drivers investigated for drugs and 88% of the alcohol cases. The drivers investigated for drugs consisted primarily of young men, whereas drivers investigated for alcohol were older.

The frequency was higher for positive alcohol cases above the legal limit (87%) than for drug cases (76%) above the fixed concentration limit. THC (67–69%) was the most frequently detected drug above the legal limit, followed by cocaine (27–28.5%), amphetamine (17%), and clonazepam (6–7%) in both years. Morphine (5.4%), included among the 5 most frequent drugs in 2015, was replaced by methadone (4.6%) in 2016. Few new psychoactive drugs (NPS) were detected.

The number of traffic cases sent for drug analysis has increased more than 30-fold since 2000–2006, and the number of traffic cases submitted in 2016 for drug analysis was higher than the number for alcohol analysis; the latter has decreased since 2011.

Conclusion: Overall, alcohol was the most frequent compound detected above the legal limit in both years, followed by the well-known illicit drugs THC, cocaine, and amphetamine. NPS were seldom seen. One consequence of the increased focus on drugs in traffic has been an immense increase in drug traffic cases sent for analysis since 2006 in the eastern part of Denmark. Although this survey revealed only minimal changes compared to earlier investigations, surveys like this are invaluable for monitoring abuse patterns and trends in drugged and drunken driving.     

A community driving under the influence (DUI) study of declining arrests

Abstract

Objective: Recent news reports in 2016 indicated that across Miami–Dade County, Florida, driving under the influence (DUI) arrests have decreased substantially. The objective of this research was to determine the reasons for the decline in DUI arrests from 2009 to 2016. Are there fewer impaired drivers on the roads? Can DUI enforcement and prosecution be improved?

Methods: The following methods were used in this study: (1) Analysis of existing DUI arrest and crash data; (2) conducting and analysis of a telephone survey of reported knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors concerning impaired driving; (3) conducting and analysis of roadside surveys on the roads on weekend nights in Miami–Dade County; (4) information from focus group discussions with police and prosecutors in Miami–Dade County; and (5) a comprehensive review of the best DUI prevention practices and enforcement strategies used across the country.

Results: DUI arrests decreased 64% in Miami–Dade County between 2009 and 2016. This was a significantly larger decrease than has occurred in the State of Florida as a whole (34%) and in the United States (29%) over the same time period. The decline was not due to any decline in DUI behavior in the county.

Conclusions: Based upon the data and information gathered in this project, the following actions were recommended for Miami–Dade County: (1) County police chiefs need to find ways to overcome law enforcement apathy toward DUI enforcement and persuade their traffic enforcement officers to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to identifying and making impaired driving stops. (2) County police agencies should join forces to conduct more sobriety checkpoints. Checkpoints are safer for both the police and the drivers going through them and serve as a general deterrent to impaired driving. (3) An interagency DUI task force or team of 5 to 7 officers should be established within the county. These officers would be solely dedicated to DUI enforcement and paid for by each individual agency or under a grant from the state or federal government.     

滆湖藻密度的时空分布及驱动因子分析

在2年内分季度调查滆湖浮游植物种群和水环境因子,分析藻密度的空间分布状况以及按时间序列的藻密度变化和浮游植物优势种群变化,分别采用"多元线性逐步回归法"和"偏相关系数法"进行藻密度驱动因子识别。结果表明,滆湖藻密度空间分布趋势为由北向南逐渐升高,年际间季节差异极显著。浮游植物的演替规律为冬、春季节以绿藻和硅藻为主,夏、秋季节蓝藻占绝对优势。通过比较2种统计方法的计算结果,确定全湖及中、南部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和高锰酸盐指数,北部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和硝酸盐氮,所有驱动因子对滆湖藻密度的影响均为正效应。在富营养化严重的滆湖,N,P营养盐已经不再是浮游植物生长的主要驱动因子,从统计方法的角度解释了部分环境因子没有入选为驱动因子的原因,并推断了其他可能的驱动因子。