华北典型超采区浅层地下水“三氮”时空变异及驱动因素分析

山东省临清市浅层地下水已成为当地水资源的重要组成部分,当地地下水超采严重,且极易受到生活、农业生产等活动的污染。本研究采用反距离权重法(IDW)对研究区地下水中“三氮”(硝态氮、亚硝态氮和氨氮)浓度进行空间插值分析,运用聚类分析法对“三氮”浓度的时空变异性特征进行分析,在分析研究区“三氮”污染现状的基础上,进一步探究其驱动因素。结果表明,研究区地下水氮污染以“NH₄⁺-N”为主,其质量浓度变化范围为0.239~2.304 mg/L,超标率100%。受降水量影响,呈现出“三氮”质量浓度在丰水期高于平水期的时间变异特征;受土地利用与地形的影响,呈现出“三氮”质量浓度在研究区中部地形低处的旱地与农村居民用地不同的空间变异特征。生活污染和人畜排泄物是研究区地下水“NH₄⁺-N”污染的主要来源,是研究区地下水氮污染控制的重要措施;土地利用类型、地下水埋深、pH、DO、Mn²⁺和Fe²⁺等均是影响研究区地下水中“三氮”迁移转化的要素,是地下水氮污染治理不可忽略的影响因素。研究结果对了解研究区地下水“三氮”污染状况与控制治理等具有重要的意义。     

辽河三角洲土地利用变化轨迹、驱动过程及生态系统服务时空演变

辽河三角洲位于"辽宁沿海经济带",拥有重要的自然保护区和保存完好的大面积芦苇沼泽和以盐地碱蓬为主的潮间带盐沼,栖息着多种濒危物种.1980年以来,农业开发、水产养殖、油气开采活动加剧,使得该区域生态环境发生巨变.本研究分析了1980—2010年,辽河三角洲土地利用时空变化轨迹及驱动过程,并应用InVEST模型模拟了碳储存、生境质量、水质净化3种生态系统服务的时空变化,在此基础上进一步分析了土地利用变化与生态系统服务的关系.研究结果表明:辽河三角洲地区土地利用变化以围垦、修复、淤积3种驱动为主,社会经济驱动主导,自然驱动明显.碳储量和生境质量呈下降趋势,而水质净化功能波动变化.土地利用和生态系统服务相关性表明湿地可以提供较高水平的3种生态服务功能,而生态服务功能低的区域则多与建设用地重合.在规划保护区或实施保护性修复措施时,应优先考虑3种生态系统服务的高价值区域,以实现高效、经济的生态环境保护.     

丘陵道路下实际行驶污染物排放研究

为研究丘陵道路特征对实际行驶排放（RDE）试验中污染物排放和动力学特性校验的影响,本文利用一辆轻型汽油车,在重庆地区满足国六排放法规要求的4条不同道路特征的路线上各进行了两次RDE试验.结果表明：CO₂与道路坡度呈显著线性相关,坡度每增加1%,CO₂排放因子平均增加22.4%,CO和PN则与道路坡度呈二次多项式关系,NO_x与坡度无明显相关性.从移动平均窗口层面对比考虑坡度的VSP_pos[95]（路段中正比功率升序排列的第95个百分位值）和不考虑坡度的v·a_pos[95]（速度与正加速乘积升序排列的第95个百分位值）与PN的关系,发现窗口VSP_pos[95]和v·a_pos[95]与PN的二次拟合R2平均值分别为0.93和0.72,当窗口累计正海拔增量大于600 m/100 km时,VSP_pos[95]与PN的相关性明显优于v·a_pos[95],建议在累计正海拔增量大于600 m/100 km的...     

长江经济带乡村性的时空分异格局及驱动机制

乡村性是描述乡村地域特征的重要指标,其时空分异可以有效反映乡村发展及转型的基本面。聚焦我国重大国家战略发展区域“长江经济带”,采用乡村性指数测度模型及探索性空间数据分析探究2000年、2005年、2010年及2017年长江经济带县域乡村性的时空分异格局,并运用GWR模型重点分析影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明：（1）2000—2017年,长江经济带县域乡村性总体有所减弱,空间上呈现“东部低、中西部高”的特点;县域乡村性在城市群（圈）、省会及大城市附近呈现较低水平,向外围逐渐升高。（2）乡村性高高集聚主要分布在中西部的传统农区,随时间推移明显缩减;低低集聚则集中在长三角、武汉、长株潭等城市群（圈）地区,且整体格局较为稳定。（3）农业技术、政府支持、资本投入、市场调节因素能促进乡村发展及转型,其中,农业技术的作用最强。自然环境和区位条件则兼具促进和限制作用。这些影响因素对不同地区乡村发展及转型的影响存在差异性,未来制定区域乡村发展策略应针对不同地区分类精准施策。     

农户黑土地保护性耕作行为决策：价值感知抑或政策驱动?

在黑土耕地质量退化问题日益严重的现实背景下,利用吉林省黑土区680户农户调查数据,分析价值感知和政策工具对农户黑土地保护性耕作行为的影响,并分析其作用机理及内在逻辑。研究表明：价值感知对农户黑土地保护性耕作行为决策具有显著影响,而政策工具对农户黑土地保护性耕作行为决策的驱动作用有限,但政策工具通过其调节作用能够增强利益感知对农户黑土地保护性耕作行为的促进作用,同时弱化风险感知对农户黑土地保护性耕作行为的抑制作用,显著增加了价值感知对农户黑土地保护性耕作行为决策的正向影响。因此在推进农户黑土地保护性耕作行为的过程中,充分发挥农户价值感知的内在激励作用,强化政策工具的外在驱动力,把握政策工具对价值感知的调节作用对推进农户参与黑土地保护性耕作行为具有重要意义。     

Impact of perceptual countermeasures on driving behavior at curves using driving simulator

Objective: The probability of crash occurrence on horizontal curves is 1.5 to 4 times higher than that on tangent sections. A majority of these crashes are associated with human errors. Therefore, human behavior in curves needs to be corrected.

Methodology: In this study, 2 different road marking treatments, optical circles and herringbone patterns, were used to influence driver behavior while entering a curve on a 2-lane rural road section. A driving simulator was used to perform the experiment. The simulated road sections are replicas of 2 real road sections in Flanders.

Results: Both treatments were found to reduce speed before entering the curve. However, speed reduction was more gradual when optical circles were used. A herringbone pattern had more influence on lateral position than optical circles by forcing drivers to maintain a safe distance from opposing traffic in the adjacent lane.

Conclusion: The study concluded that among other low-cost speed reduction methods, optical circles are effective tools to reduce speed and increase drivers’ attention. Moreover, a herringbone pattern can be used to reduce crashes on curves, mainly for head-on crashes where the main problem is inappropriate lateral position.     

基于主成分分析和FCM聚类的行驶工况研究

在定义了运动学片段的基础上,对典型道路上采集的大量工况试验数据进行划分,从而获得大量运动学片段.用主成分分析法对12个表征道路运行特征的参数(包括加速比例、减速比例、匀速比例、怠速比例、平均速度、平均运行速度、最大速度、平均加速度、最大加速度、最小加速度、速度标准偏差和加速度标准偏差)进行压缩,得到4个主成分.利用模糊C均值聚类技术对所有运动学片段的第一和第二主成分得分进行分类,根据相关系数的大小及各类别的时间长度比选取合适片段,最终拟合出代表性工况.通过对特征参数和速度、加速度联合概率分布的误差分析可知,所提出的构建方法精度较高,拟合工况能综合反映合肥市实际道路的交通状况.      

Mobile phone use while driving: Predicting drivers’ answering intentions and compensatory decisions

The current study considered, for the first time, compensatory decisions within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to explain why people use mobile phones while driving. The effects of age, gender, and mobile phone mode on respondents’ answering intentions and compensatory decisions were mainly examined. A series of questions were administered to 333 drivers (ages 25-59), which included (1) demographic measures, (2) scales that measured prior mobile use activities in both driving and ordinary contexts, (3) a question to measure drivers’ perceptions of the safety of hands-free phones, and (4) TPB measures, which measured answer intention and two compensatory behavioural decisions (i.e., reminding the caller that he/she is driving, limiting the length of a conversations (including perceived its limits)), along with predictive variables. Drivers reported a moderate likelihood of answering intention and a strong tendency to engage in the two compensatory behaviours. Answering intention and compensatory decisions, perceived behavioural control, perceived risk, and usage frequency were more dependent on mobile phone mode and age group than gender. The regression models explained 64% and 67% of the variance in answering intention in the handheld and hands-free scenario separately. Attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural risk and control (PBRC), and prior answering behaviour emerged as common predictors. The predictive models explained 31% and 37% of the variance for perceived limits of a conversation length in handheld and hands-free scenarios, respectively. Answering intention and PBRC consistently predicted most of the variance (handheld: 28%; hands-free: 32%) for this compensatory perception limits. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.     

长江中游湿地系统驱动关系的演变及保护展望

简要介绍了长江中游湿地的概况,分析了湿地演变的现状。在自然和人为因素长期、综合作用下,长江中游湿地发生了显著的不合理演变,主要表现在：湖泊面积减少,湿地功能下降;湿地资源的过度和不合理利用,生物多样性下降;湿地环境污染日益严重;湿地整体价值受损。重点对湿地系统演变过程中的几个关键驱动关系进行了探讨,包括江湖关系、蓄泄关系、湖垸关系和山湖（河）关系等。在此基础上,针对长江中游湿地演变的现状和利用保护过程中存在的问题,从流域综合管理角度出发,对长江中游湿地的保护进行了展望,提出了基于流域管理思想的长江中游湿地保护对策和措施,主要包括：加强流域统一协调管理;遵循流域管理原则,理顺湿地系统的各种关系,做好湿地生态规划;加强流域生态管理模式研究;加强长江中上游流域水土流失的综合治理;加强自然保护区建设和管理,保护湿地生物多样性。     

Driving mechanism and boundary control of urban sprawl

Since the reform and opening-up, China’s economy has achieved remarkable development and so does the urbanization. However, there is an unavoidable contradiction between urban sprawl and the protection of arable land and the environment. By redefining the urban sprawl boundary, this paper is to provide a solution for the conflict above on the China’s urbanization context. The ideal boundary, moderate boundary and limit boundary are defined for urban sprawl in space. Taking Nanjing city as a case, the three urban sprawl boundaries are estimated in this paper based on the calculation of agricultural land resources value in Nanjing. The results show that 1) the integrated value of agricultural (cultivated) land resources in Nanjing is 1.55 × 10⁷ CNY·hm⁻², the economic value accounts for only 8.74% of the integrated value, while 91.26% of the integrated value has not revealed itself due to the existing institutional arrangements, policy distortions, and imperfect land market; 2) it is difficult to define the ideal and moderate boundaries due to the relatively low price of North Nanjing. In South Nanjing the land price is expensive and the ideal, moderate and limit boundaries are expanded to Jiangning, Qixia, and Yuhuatai; 3) the city scale of South Nanjing should be limited within 5.82 × 10⁴ hm², which is roughly the same as the designated size of 5.81 × 10⁴ hm² in the urban planning. It is suggested that the rational scope of urban expansion should be controlled within the moderate boundary.