A framework for definition of logical scenarios for safety assurance of automated driving

Abstract

Objective: In order to introduce automated vehicles on public roads, it is necessary to ensure that these vehicles are safe to operate in traffic. One challenge is to prove that all physically possible variations of situations can be handled safely within the operational design domain of the vehicle. A promising approach to handling the set of possible situations is to identify a manageable number of logical scenarios, which provide an abstraction for object properties and behavior within the situations. These can then be transferred into concrete scenarios defining all parameters necessary to reproduce the situation in different test environments.

Methods: This article proposes a framework for defining safety-relevant scenarios based on the potential collision between the subject vehicle and a challenging object, which forces the subject vehicle to depart from its planned course of action to avoid a collision. This allows defining only safety-relevant scenarios, which can directly be related to accident classification. The first criterion for defining a scenario is the area of the subject vehicle with which the object would collide. As a second criterion, 8 different positions around the subject vehicle are considered. To account for other relevant objects in the scenario, factors that influence the challenge for the subject vehicle can be added to the scenario. These are grouped as action constraints, dynamic occlusions, and causal chains.

Results: By applying the proposed systematics, a catalog of base scenarios for a vehicle traveling on controlled-access highways has been generated, which can directly be linked to parameters in accident classification. The catalog serves as a basis for scenario classification within the PEGASUS project.

Conclusions: Defining a limited number of safety-relevant scenarios helps to realize a systematic safety assurance process for automated vehicles. Scenarios are defined based on the point of the potential collision of a challenging object with the subject vehicle and its initial position. This approach allows defining scenarios for different environments and different driving states of the subject vehicle using the same mechanisms. A next step is the generation of logical scenarios for other driving states of the subject vehicle and for other traffic environments.     

Fatally injured drivers in Norway 2005–2015—Trends in substance use and crash characteristics

Objective: Norway introduced a “Vision Zero” strategy in 2001, using multiple approaches, aiming toward a future in which no one will be killed or seriously injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs). Official statistics show that the number of fatally injured road users has declined substantially from 341 deaths in 2000 to 117 in 2015. In-depth crash investigations of all fatal RTCs started in Norway in 2005. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fatal crash characteristics, vehicle safety features, and prevalence of drugs and/or alcohol among fatally injured drivers and riders has changed during 2005–2015, accompanying the reduction in road fatalities.

Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.

Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.

Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths.     

基于SEM的双车道公路超车行为安全评价

为提高驾驶人在双车道公路上超车的安全性,基于tau理论适应性分析,提出超车过程中驾驶人不仅根据tau线索估计避碰时间,也利用距离、速度、加速度等判断超车是否安全的试验假设。招募12名受试者,应用驾驶模拟系统试验平台,依据试验假设采集12个与超车行为有关的驾驶行为数据,对其进行无量纲化处理,并利用Bootstrap法对数据进行扩增。结合驾驶行为问卷得分,利用AMOS软件,建立超车行为安全评价的结构方程模型。通过对初始假设模型进行多次修正与评价,得到影响超车行为安全的3个驾驶行为参数。结果表明,超车车辆在超车并道后的速度、与前导车之间的避碰时间及与对向车辆之间的避碰时间这3个驾驶行为参数可作为超车行为安全评价的有效指标。     

黄河河川基流量演化规律及其驱动因子探讨

河川基流量是指地下水补给河川径流的水量。论文首次对黄河河川基流量50年来的时空演化规律和驱动因子做了较为全面的分析。研究表明:黄河河川基流量约占黄河河川径流量的44%,黄河河川基流量对维持健康黄河具有重要意义。受自然变化和人类活动影响,黄河干支流河川基流量50年来总体呈下降趋势;支流基流量变化可划分为双峰型、单峰型、直线下降型3种类型,干流区间基流量主要减少在黄河中游地区。黄河河川基流量具有维持河川径流、维护河流生态、湖泊以及表生生态植被良性发展等多种功能,河川基流量衰减导致湖泊萎缩、表生植被退化、加剧黄河断流等一系列生态环境负效应。通过对驱动因子进一步分析表明,降水量是维持河川基流量的主要来源,其变化影响黄河河川基流量变化趋势。人类活动是黄河河川基流量驱动因子中最活跃的因子,基流量衰减最明显的地区也是人类活动频繁的地区。因此维持健康的黄河必须要对黄河基流量进行科学保护和合理开发利用。     

滆湖藻密度的时空分布及驱动因子分析

在2年内分季度调查滆湖浮游植物种群和水环境因子,分析藻密度的空间分布状况以及按时间序列的藻密度变化和浮游植物优势种群变化,分别采用"多元线性逐步回归法"和"偏相关系数法"进行藻密度驱动因子识别。结果表明,滆湖藻密度空间分布趋势为由北向南逐渐升高,年际间季节差异极显著。浮游植物的演替规律为冬、春季节以绿藻和硅藻为主,夏、秋季节蓝藻占绝对优势。通过比较2种统计方法的计算结果,确定全湖及中、南部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和高锰酸盐指数,北部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和硝酸盐氮,所有驱动因子对滆湖藻密度的影响均为正效应。在富营养化严重的滆湖,N,P营养盐已经不再是浮游植物生长的主要驱动因子,从统计方法的角度解释了部分环境因子没有入选为驱动因子的原因,并推断了其他可能的驱动因子。     

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983-2007

The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality.     

三峡水库大宁河支流浮游植物演变过程及其驱动因素

基于大宁河不同水文期(2012-04-27~2013-01-19)的监测数据,运用数理统计分析手段,探索三峡水库支流浮游植物不同水文期演替模式及其影响因素.结果表明:1研究期间表层叶绿素浓度和藻类细胞密度最大值均出现在汛限期,依次是蓄水期、泄水期和高水位运行期.基于生态功能组原理,不同水文期大宁河的浮游植物演替模式为:CR-R(高水位运行期)-CS(泄水期)-CR/CS(汛限期)-R-CR(蓄水期).2丰富度指数最大值出现在蓄水期,最小值出现在高水位运行期和泄水期;均匀度指数最大值出现在汛限期,最小值出现在高水位运行期和泄水期;多样性指数最大值出现在汛限期,最小值出现在蓄水期和泄水期;演替速率最高值出现在蓄水期,最低值出现在泄水期.3利用数理统计分析方法,高水位运行期,浮游植物生物量与生境参数并不存在显著的相关关系,水动力参数(RSCW)和光热参数(Et和Ef*)是影响浮游植物群落结构的关键要素;泄水期,Et和Ef*均与浮游植物生物量呈显著正相关,营养盐参数(TP)与浮游植物生物量呈显著负相关关系,营养盐参数(TP)和光热参数[Deu(λPAR)/Dmix]是影响浮游植物群落结构的关键要素;汛限期,光热参数(Ef*)与浮游植物生物量呈显著正相关,营养盐参数(TP)与浮游植物生物量呈显著负相关关系,光热参数([Deu(λPAR)/Dmix]、Et和Ef*)和营养盐参数(TP)是影响浮游植物群落结构的关键要素;在蓄水期,TP与Chl-a浓度呈极显著正相关关系,光热参数[Deu(λPAR)/Dmix]是影响浮游植物群落结构的关键要素.     

沙漠公路驾驶员心理、生理特性初探

针对沙漠公路交通安全现状,采用动体视力、速度估计、复杂(选择)反应、处置判断、血压脉搏检测仪等驾驶适宜性检测仪器,就长期从事沙漠公路运输活动的驾驶员群体进行了包括视觉、速度估计、反应、判断等在内的心理、生理特性的实地测试。检测结果初步表明,沙漠公路特殊的线形布设和修筑技术特征以及沿线的自然环境条件,使得驾驶员表现出有别于一般绿洲公路的驾驶心理和行为特性,其主要表现在在沙漠环境中,驾驶员的动体视力要较静体视力受到更大的影响;急躁心理影响,沙漠公路驾驶员的速度估计和复杂反应时间相应指标值均小于全国平均水平;沙漠公路驾驶员复杂反应错误次数和处置判断错误次数均高于绿洲公路。     

GIS支持下的小尺度土地驱动力研究--以宜兴市湖滏小流域为例

为了能够建立土地演化的模拟模型，在ARCINFO中的GRID模块的支持下，对宜兴市湖滏小流域的土地驱动力进行了探讨，建立了以像元为单位的属性数据库，并随机选取了600个样点。分析则采用了LOGISTIC模型，探讨了社会经济因子与土地类型转移概率间的关系，揭示了任意两个土地类型相互转换的驱动力及整个地区的土地变化驱动力。最后讨论了该模型模拟预测时的局限性，说明其不是合适的模拟模型，而仅是分析土地驱动力较好工具。这种分析是进一步用概率方式逐个模拟地块(patch)演化的基础，因而具有一定的现实意义。     

山东半岛北部海岸带城乡聚落扩展变化特征与驱动力分析

改革开放以来,山东半岛北部海岸带地区经济发展迅速,城乡聚落扩展明显,快速城镇化过程对区域土地利用和生态环境产生了深刻影响,因此,及时掌握城乡聚落的时空分布和变化特征对于区域可持续发展具有重要意义。论文以RS技术为主要手段,目视解译获取了研究区1986、1992和2004年3个典型时期的城乡聚落空间分布信息,并以此为基础,借助城镇扩展指数、重心、分形维数等指标,定量分析了城乡聚落的扩展特征,进一步探讨了扩展变化的影响因素。结果表明,研究时段内,城乡聚落扩展明显,其重心表现出从东南向西北转移的态势,并且扩展随意性非常大。在此基础上,进一步探讨了地区GDP、人口城市化率和固定资产投资等社会经济因素对城乡聚落扩展的影响。