Traffic safety in the U.S.: re-examining major opportunities

INTRODUCTION: This article examines five major road-safety risk factors: exceeding posted speed limits, not using safety belts, driving while intoxicated, nighttime driving, and young drivers. METHOD: The importance of each of these factors is documented, known effective countermeasures (both policy and technology based) are discussed, and impediments to the implementation of these countermeasures in the United States are examined. RESULTS: Based on current understanding of the five major risk factors, and of the available countermeasures, there appear to be a variety of opportunities to make substantial gains in road safety using existing knowledge. The limited implementation of a variety of known countermeasures therefore appears to be inconsistent with high-level, strategic goals to improve road safety. Consequently, a recommendation is made to comprehensively re-examine the balance between the countermeasures discussed in this article and economic, mobility, and privacy concerns. IMPACT ON PUBLIC SAFETY: Such a re-examination is likely to result in broad support for these countermeasures, with a consequent major improvement in road safety.     

Extending parental mentoring using an event-triggered video intervention in rural teen drivers

Teen drivers are at high risk for car crashes, especially during their first years of licensure. Providing novice teen drivers and their parents with a means of identifying their risky driving maneuvers may help them learn from their mistakes, thereby reducing their crash propensity. During the initial phase of learning, adult or parental supervision often provides such guidance. However, once teens obtain their license, adult supervision is no longer mandated, and teens are left to themselves to continue the learning process. This study is the first of its type to enhance this continued learning process using an event-triggered video device. By pairing this new technology with parental feedback in the form of a weekly video review and graphical report card, we extend parents' ability to teach their teens even after they begin driving independently. Twenty-six 16- to 17-year-old drivers were recruited from a small U.S. Midwestern rural high school. We equipped their vehicles with an event-triggered video device, designed to capture 20-sec clips of the forward and cabin views whenever the vehicle exceeded lateral or forward threshold accelerations. Preliminary findings suggest that combining this emerging technology with parental weekly review of safety-relevant incidents resulted in a significant decrease in events for the more at-risk teen drivers. Implications for how such an intervention could be implemented within GDL are also discussed.     

On-road pollutant emission and fuel consumption characteristics of buses in Beijing

On-road emission and fuel consumption (FC) levels for Euro III and IV buses fueled on diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) were compared, and emission and FC characteristics of buses were analyzed based on approximately 28,700 groups of instantaneous data obtained in Beijing using a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS). The experimental results revealed that NOx and PM emissions from CNG buses were decreased by 72.0% and 82.3% respectively, compared with Euro IV diesel buses. Similarly, these emissions were reduced by 75.2% and 96.3% respectively, compared with Euro III diesel buses. In addition, CO2, CO, HC, NOx, PM emissions and FC of Euro IV diesel buses were reduced by 26.4%, 75.2%, 73.6%, 11.4%, 79.1%, and 26.0%, respectively, relative to Euro III diesel buses. The CO2, CO, HC, NOx, PM emissions and FC factors all decreased with bus speed increased, while increased as bus acceleration increased. At the same time, the emission/FC rates as well as the emission/FC factors exhibited a strong positive correlation with the vehicle specific power (VSP). They all were the lowest when VSP < 0, and then rapidly increased as VSP increased. Furthermore, both the emission/FC rates and emission/FC factors were the highest at accelerations, higher at cruise speeds, and the lowest at decelerations for non-idling buses. These results can provide a base reference to further estimate bus emission and FC inventories in Beijing.     

Changes in distribution patterns of weed species richness in agricultural lands on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate change北大核心CSCD

农田杂草是阻碍农业生产的主要因素之一.明确农田杂草丰富度分布格局对农业生产管理具有重要意义.以青藏高原农田杂草为研究对象,利用物种分布模型探讨基于县域尺度的农田杂草物种丰富度分布格局及其未来(2050s)的变化,利用逐步回归筛选影响物种丰富度的环境因子,基于传统最小二乘法(OLS)和地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析环境因子对农田杂草物种丰富度的影响,并对两种分析方法进行比较.结果显示:(1)分布在青藏高原的农田主要杂草有51科284种,其中59种单子叶杂草、222种双子叶杂草、135种一年生杂草和149种多年生杂草.青藏高原农田杂草物种丰富度呈由西向东递增的变化规律,物种丰富度中心(丰富度值为167-194)主要集中在一江两河、河湟谷地和川西北等地区;(2)全球气候变化背景下,未来(2050s)青藏高原农田杂草物种丰富度整体呈由东南向西北方向增加的趋势,其中SSP1-2.6情境下最多增加43种,SSP5-8.5情境下最多增加49种;(3)GWR模型优于OLS,其结果表明青藏高原农田杂草物种丰富度的主要驱动因子是最冷季平均温、太阳辐射和最干月降水量,上述变量对杂草丰富度的影响存在明显的空间差异性,其中最冷季平均温由南向北逐渐从负向影响转变为正向影响.太阳辐射整体在青藏高原东部边缘等地区对农田杂草丰富度起正向的影响,在藏东南、青藏高原北部边缘等地区起负向的影响.最干月降水量对整个研究区域起负向影响,并表现出影响力由南向北逐步递增的趋势.上述结果表明青藏高原农田杂草物种丰富度调查不足,实际观测到的丰富度值明显低于当前气候下潜在的丰富度值,存在低估现象.当前气候背景下的农田杂草物种丰富度中心分布地区在未来仍是重点监管对象,且未来青藏高原部分地区作物可能面临新的杂草入侵风险.建议未来研究应注重于青藏高原粮食主产区农田杂草群落结构和功能调查、杂草和作物种间关系、耕地尺度上丰富度驱动因子分析等方面,为区域杂草管理和防治提供充分科学依据.(图6表2参53)     

后疫情重建阶段的碳排放趋势与减排策略研究

本研究利用北京理工大学最新研发的环境经济系统多主体模型,实现了对中国不同部门CO_2排放的中短期高精度模拟,研究在后疫情重建阶段中国财政刺激政策以及行业减排路径对碳排放与经济增长的影响。结果表明,由于"新基建"等疫后重建活动较多针对受疫情直接影响的人类活动高度聚集部门,若财政刺激政策与疫情防控在时间上保持同步,则前者对CO_2排放的增加效果不超过0.4%。各行业减排组合情景下CO_2排放增长率在2021年中位值为4.7%,之后直到"十五五"初期,各情景中位值在1.0%～1.4%。碳排放增长率具体取决于行业的低碳转型速度。相对于"十四五"单位经济产出CO_2排放降低18%的目标,各行业若减碳速度加倍,对降低中国碳排放贡献程度由高到低依次为电力、钢铁、水泥、交通及石化。仅在电力行业加速减碳的各情景下,中国可以在"十四五"至"十五五"初期将CO_2排放维持在稳定水平。与此同时,随着疫情减弱和经济系统中各主体适应性增强,中国GDP将维持平稳增长。上述结果表明,将疫后经济重建与绿色转型相结合,有望在实现经济持续增长的同时,使碳排放按时甚至提前达峰。     

特厚煤层沿空掘巷合理留设小煤柱的试验研究

为减少煤柱损失量,改善巷道维护现状和提高煤炭回采率,以庞庞塔煤矿10#特厚煤层为工程背景,采用理论计算、FLAC3D数值模拟和现场观测方法对该矿特厚煤层综放沿空掘巷留设的小煤柱宽度进行了研究。计算表明:小煤柱合理留设宽度为7.7～9 m。以小煤柱理论计算为基础,结合工作面端头侧的应力与煤柱侧向支承压力分布特征,提出了4种小煤柱留宽方案,通过数值模拟对比分析不同留宽煤柱在掘巷和回采阶段的围岩应力和受载变形情况,最终得出小煤柱合理留宽为9 m。工程实践表明:按9 m留设区段煤柱,并采用合理支护设计,巷道顶底板及两帮变形量较小,煤柱稳定性良好,留宽方案满足生产使用要求。     

中国城市轻型车的排放特性

采用机动车实际上路排放测试系统对北京、重庆和成都3城市27辆轻型车进行了测试和分析;采用发动机比功率VSP、发动机负荷ES和排放单元BIN分析了轻型车瞬态排故的特征及影响排放的主要因素.结果表明.发动机技术和累计行驶里程对排放的影响很大,而VSP等概念还反映了道路坡度对排放因子的影响;由于城市道路坡度的差异,导致同一测试车辆在重庆和成都2个城市的排放水平相差10%～100%.     

应用车载测试系统研究轻型机动车在实际道路上的排放特征

采用一套车载排放测试系统,对深圳市7辆具有代表性的轻型车辆进了实际道路排放测试.根据测试结果,分析了机动车运行工况对排放的影响,比较了基于油耗和行驶里程的排放因子,并计算了各测试车辆的平均排放因子.结果表明,深圳市轻型机动车加速和减速运行模式共占整个运行时间的66.7%和行驶里程的80.3%,对各种污染物的贡献率达74.6%～79.2%.并且加速模式下的排放水平明显高于其他运行模式;基于油耗的排放因子受车速的影响较小,可以避免因机动车运行工况不同所带来的排放差异,从宏观尺度更为合理地预测机动车污染物排放量;车辆技术水平对排放影响很大,化油器车的C0、HC和NOx排放因子分别是欧Ⅲ车的19.9～20.5、5.6～26.1和1.8～2.0倍;我国在进行轻型车排放测试时使用ECE EUDC工况,不能反映我国城市实际道路行驶工况下的机动车排放水平.     

苏州市非农用地扩展的驱动因素时空变化研究

利用1984—2003年间4个时段的TM影像解译获得该时期苏州市非农用地扩张变化规律,并结合大量的社会经济资料,定量分析了过去20 a间苏州市非农用地扩张与社会经济因素的关系,筛选出非农用地高速增长的主导驱动因素,揭示了主导驱动力在不同时期的时空变化规律。结果表明,非农用地扩张的社会经济驱动因素随社会经济发展的不同阶段而显著变化,GDP、上海对苏州的经济辐射作用和人口增长是过去20 a间苏州市非农用地急剧扩张的3个主要驱动力。     

中国土地沙漠化、水土流失和盐渍化的原因和驱动力:总体分析

论文收集了102篇沙漠化、79篇水土流失和64篇盐渍化的案例研究(共245篇),运用总体分析方法,把造成3种生态环境问题的因素归结为四类原因(农业扩张、资源利用、基础设施建设和自然因素)和五类驱动因子(经济、制度、技术、文化和人口)。分析结果表明,生态环境问题绝大多数由多因子所引起;在原因层面上,对沙漠化、水土流失和盐渍化案例影响最频繁的因子分别是农业扩张因子(92%)、资源利用因子(90%)和自然因素(86%);从驱动因子的层面上看,对沙漠化、水土流失和盐渍化案例影响最频繁的都是经济因素,影响频率分别为86%、81%和89%;总体来看,在发生生态环境问题的区域中,往往以经济因素的影响最为常见(85%),其次为技术(69%)和人口因素(62%)。因此,不适当地发展经济是造成我国沙漠化、水土流失和盐渍化日益严重的重要原因。