Water,Adaptation, and Property Rights on the Snake and Klamath Rivers1

Abstract: Water demand in a viable economy tends to be dynamic: it changes over time in response to growth, drought, and social policy. Institutional capacity to re‐allocate water between users and uses under stress from multiple sources is a key concern. Climate change threatens to add to those stresses in snowmelt systems by changing the timing of runoff and possibly increasing the severity and duration of drought. This article examines Snake and Klamath River institutions for their ability to resolve conflict induced by demand growth, drought, and environmental constraints on water use. The study finds that private ownership of water rights has been a major positive factor in successful adaptation, by providing the basis for water marketing and by promoting the use of negotiation and markets rather than politics to resolve water conflict.     

多目标决策的农业抗旱能力综合评价

利用灰色系统理论中的关联分析建立了湖南农业抗旱能力评价的指标体系,运用多目标决策法对湖南14个市州的抗旱能力进行了评价。其结果是:在三种方案中娄底(1.452 9)、邵阳(1.398 8)、常德(1.580 2)的抗旱能力综合指数最大,抗旱能力强;而张家界在3种方案中抗旱能力综合指数都小于0.5,抗旱能力弱。并为湖南抗旱减灾、提高抗旱能力提出了合理的建议与对策。     

陕西省干旱综合评价预警研究

总结了造成陕西省干旱发生的主要原因以及干旱的区域和季节分布特征，在分析气象干旱和农业干旱指标的基础上提出了陕西省干旱分析评价的综合干旱指标、干旱预警方法以及干旱发生起始日期和持续日数的计算方法，通过采用此指标和方法对陕西省典型年份的干旱分析评价，得出的干旱结果和实际干旱状况相比基本一致，说明运用该综合干旱指标、评价干旱状况方法以及干旱预警方法在陕西省干旱的评价和预警中是可行的。     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10‐step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.     

黄河流域干旱状况变化的气候与植被特征分析

应用干旱的气候分析方法和遥感监测方法,分别利用1982～1998年(1999年)降水和气温气象数据,以及AVHRR的NDVI遥感数据计算了黄河流域气候干旱指数和距平NDVI。以像元为单位,应用线性回归斜率和相关系数分析了流域内干旱状况的气候特征和植被特征的变化状况,并进行了流域干旱状况类型的区域划分,从气候和植被特征方面分析了黄河流域近18年来干旱变化状况。通过研究得出以下结论:黄河流域在1982～1999年间干旱的气候特征比较突出,在101°20'E以东地区受干旱威胁,共占黄河流域面积的71%;黄河流域在101°20'E以西的源头地区,干旱的气候特征和植被特征目前都处在相对减弱的趋势中,干旱没有进一步严重恶化的迹象;黄河流域灌溉农业地区植被基本不受气候干旱的影响。     

胡杨生理指标对塔里木河下游生态输水的响应

根据塔里木河下游受生态输水影响的断面和未受输水影响断面的胡杨生理指标脯氨酸、脱落酸和叶片含水量的变化,就胡杨生理指标对生态输水的响应进行了初步分析.结果显示:①在受到生态输水影响的断面,胡杨叶相对含水量增加,脯氨酸、脱落酸因水分条件的好转而分解降低;在未受到生态输水影响的断面,因为干旱胁迫程度的加重,胡杨叶相对含水量减少,脯氨酸、脱落酸因积累而增加.②在生态输水前,胡杨生理指标总体上与地下水位变化相一致,即:随着地下水位的降低,胡杨脯氨酸和脱落酸水平增加;随地下水位的升高,脯氨酸和脱落酸水平有降低的趋势.③从个别数据的异常看,在塔里木河下游,当地下水位较低时,地下水位的升降仅是影响胡杨干旱胁迫的一个因子.因此,在塔里木河下游开展的生态输水工程,对该区胡杨生长的影响非常显著,它在一定程度上缓解了胡杨水分的亏缺,减轻了干旱胁迫程度.      

季节性干旱下喀斯特次生林不同树种水分利用效率变化

植物叶片水分利用效率(WUE)对环境变化的响应特征和机制是理解生态系统碳循环和水循环及其耦合关系的基础。为探讨季节性干旱下喀斯特次生林中不同植物的WUE变化,以普定次生林通量观测站内的喀斯特次生林为例,在连续干旱背景下分别对8种常见植物的叶片WUE进行了测定分析。结果表明:(1)研究区常见植物的叶片WUE日间主要在0.65～7.73μmol/mmol之间变化。8种植物的叶片WUE均以上午9点最大,厚果崖豆藤(Millettia pachycarpa)、朴树(Celtis sinensis)和马桑(Coriaria nepalensis)的WUE均在下午3点就降到最低,而铁线莲(Clematis florida)、木通(Akebia quinata)、石岩枫(Mallotus repandus)、梓树(Catalpa ovata)和构树(Broussonetia papyrifera)的WUE则在下午5点才降到最低。厚果崖豆藤、铁线莲、石岩枫、朴树、构树的WUE日间变化均较显著。(2)研究区植物叶片的WUE以藤本植物最高。上午9点、11点和下午3点,植物叶片WUE的种间差异均不显著,而在下午1点、5点,植物叶片WUE在种间均存在显著差异。(3)石岩枫和木通的叶片WUE与环境光照强度均呈显著正相关关系。朴树和铁线莲的叶片WUE与环境相对湿度均呈极显著正相关关系。厚果崖豆藤的叶片WUE与环境空气温度间也呈现出极显著的正相关关系。朴树、构树、马桑、石岩枫、铁线莲、厚果崖豆藤的叶片WUE与净光合速率均显著正相关,木通的叶片WUE与蒸腾速率显著负相关。研究区8种植物叶片WUE与叶面水汽压亏缺间的相关性均不显著。(4)植物种和外部环境对研究区植物叶片的WUE均有显著影响,木通、厚果崖豆藤、铁线莲在遭遇连续干旱后叶片WUE均较高,对生境恶劣的喀斯特环境具有较强的适应能力。     

辽西北春玉米旱灾灾损风险区划

开展干旱风险区划研究,对实现抗旱减灾及粮食稳产增产至关重要。以辽西北为研究区域,以作物水分亏缺指数（CWDI）为干旱表征指标,利用该区1965—2019年逐日气象数据及多年玉米种植资料,通过数理统计和通径分析方法揭示研究区玉米干旱时空演变及对各气象因子的响应特征,在此基础上构建干旱灾损指数进行旱灾风险区划,结果表明:（1）近54年春玉米抽穗—成熟期CWDI值以2.2/10 a的速率上升,其他生育阶段呈下降趋势,空间上干旱频率由辽西向辽北递减;（2）相对湿度和降水量与CWDI指数呈明显负相关,其他气象因子呈正相关,其中气温和相对湿度对其直接影响最大;（3）辽西北分四个灾损风险区,且风险程度由辽北向辽西递增。研究结果可为优化春玉米农田管理和防灾减灾提供一定参考。     

云南省丽江市1960 — 2017年极端气温变化特征

云南丽江市是位于南方且具有温带气候特点的地区,研究该区近58年极端气温变化对查明极端气温变化特点、规律和趋势具有重要科学意义,对极端气温引起的气象灾害的预防及减少气象灾害造成的损失有实际意义。利用丽江市气象站1960—2017年的日最高、最低气温和平均气温等气象数据,采用线性趋势分析法、累积距平值分析法、主成分分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Morlet复数小波变换系数及小波方差法,对选用的8个极端气温指数进行了研究。结果表明：丽江市的极端最高气温、极端最低气温、夏季日数、暖昼日数、暖夜日数等5个指数呈现上升趋势,冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数等3个指数呈现下降趋势。主成分分析结果表明：丽江市的夏季日数、暖昼日数和暖夜日数的增加对气温升高起到了主要作用。突变分析表明：丽江各指数的突变年主要出现在21世纪初和1983年前后。Morlet小波分析表明：丽江市极端气温指数的主周期普遍为18年,个别指数有12年、30年的周期。初步认为,全球气温升高是导致研究区极端气温变化的主要原因,预测丽江市未来2—3年的气温仍会呈现上升趋势,且极端高温事件的发生频率呈现上升趋势。