城市热岛效应研究进展

作为现代城市气候主要特征之一的城市热岛效应有日渐严重的趋势。文章综述了城市热岛的生态环境效应、热岛的主要形成机制、时空分布特征等研究状况和发展趋势；基于当前城市热岛研究的现状，提出了未来城市热岛效应研究的方向及缓解城市热岛效应的有关对策。     

试论湖北省伏旱的环流特征

通过对湖北省几个典型伏旱年的同期环流特征的分析,揭示了与湖北严重伏旱灾害密切联系的几中大气环流系统,并进行了分型。指出,造成严重伏旱的主要天气系统有西太平洋副热高压,西风带环流和西太平洋台风,并根据伏旱期大气环流的不同型式,将造成湖北伏旱的环流特征主要归结为两类,一是副高势力强盛,西伸强烈,稳定控制长江中下游地区;中高纬度向环流占优势;台风活动较少,另一类是副高压势力较弱,主体位于太平洋面上空,西     

陕西省干旱灾害的农业风险评估

分析了陕西干旱发生的时空规律,以缺水率划分干旱标准,评价陕西各季农业干旱状况,并对1949～1990年共42a粮食产量序列进行滑动平均模拟,以粮食减产百分率评估全省干旱灾害等级,得出干旱损失评估模式,使陕西干旱灾害的评估由定性到定量,为其它灾害的定量评估提供了经验。     

陕西省农业旱灾系统及农业旱灾灾情模型研究

为试图解决当前有关干旱（旱灾）指标的片面性,本文提出了农业旱灾系统（ＡＤＳ）,并设计了描述农业旱灾灾情的模型：Ｅ＝ｋ＊Ｍ＊Ｈ＊Ａ。农业旱灾系统由气象干旱（Ｍ）、水利抗旱（Ｈ）、农业承旱（Ａ）及农业旱灾灾情（Ｅ）等四个要素组成。每一要素均由若干区域性指标进行刻划。在分析陕西省农业旱灾特点的同时,建立了陕西省农业旱灾系统的框架,并利用各种资料分析了陕西省农业旱灾灾情。分析结果表明,由该模型计算的陕西省各县级单位的农业旱灾灾情和几十年来的实际资料是相吻合的,模型是可靠的。而且,通过模型和实际情况的对比,能够为研究农业旱灾灾情形成机制提供更好的佐证。     

气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源脆弱性的影响

论文首先分析了在现状年(1993年)供水能力和需水条件下,1960～1993年的气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源供需平衡和脆弱性的影响。然后根据未来气候情景分析了在2000规划年和2020规划年供水能力和需水要求下,未来气候变化(2000～2042年)对水资源供需平衡及脆弱性的影响。在农业需水保证率50%时,2000～2019年水资源供需基本平衡,但2020～2042年水资源短缺20～57亿m³。若考虑未来气温的上升,则水资源短缺进一步加大。因此,2020年以后需在调入56亿m³客水资源基础上,从区外调入更多稳定的水量以保证该地区社会经济的可持续发展。     

CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention

In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long, yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities. It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation, as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime. JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58     

Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective

The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change. Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes. Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes), quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These components are expected to make significant contributions to policy considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‘climate change adaptation plans’, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is that there is a need to move towards the ‘mission’ of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and understanding in policy and decision making.     

基于GIS的黄土高原地区植被与气候关系研究

排序是植被与环境关系分析的重要手段。利用地理信息系统技术 (GIS)结合除趋势典范对应分析对黄土高原地区植被与气候关系进行了研究。结果清楚地反映了黄土高原地区植被与气候的地带性分布规律 ,证明GIS结合植被数量生态分析方法在黄土高原植被与环境关系的研究中是有效的     

Geoengineering and sustainability

ABSTRACT

Geoengineering is regarded by advocates as a creative and responsible technological option in the face of a climate emergency. Critics often see it as a hubristic attempt to play God, with disastrous consequences for the planet and humanity. These antipodal perspectives are represented by the ideal types of Prometheans and Gaians. Prometheans and Gaians typically talk past each other. The geoengineering debate can be made more fruitful by well articulating their respective positions and subsequently situating them in the discourse of sustainability. A sustainability orientation does not answer the troubling question whether geoengineering should be developed and deployed. But it can foster a ‘fusion of horizons’ between Prometheans and Gaians, providing common ground in an otherwise polarized debate and making a more productive dialogue possible.     

Is renewable energy still green? Shaping Australia’s renewable energy enterprise in an age of ecological modernisation

ABSTRACT

Renewable energy (RE) illustrates well the logic of ecological modernisation (EM). This logic has successfully transformed RE from a fringe idea owned by largely environmental actors to a mainstream one embraced by a broader constituency. This mainstream embrace inevitably (re)shapes the renewables enterprise. Not all renewables actors today are driven by environmental goals. Instead, key actors, particularly in corporate or community domains, nurture competing norms and aspirations. How the renewables project is envisaged and the goals it is directed to serve can thus differ considerably. Understanding these differences is important since transformations in the energy domain will not only impact climate protection but shape social futures in significant ways. The analysis proceeds in two interrelated steps: first, empirically – conducting an exploration of some of the main projects and actors in the contemporary Australian RE space; and second, theoretically – considering these empirical developments through an EM lens.