1991年世界地震灾情及地震活动特征

为适应“国际减灾十年活动”的需要,系统整理了1991年世界地震灾情及重要地震。统计结果表明:全世界1991年全年因地震死亡人数为2084人,中国只有一人;受伤人数约6500人,中国将近700人;倒塌房屋约62万间。全年直接经济损失粗略估算,国外2.7～3.2亿美元,国内约3.3亿人民币。对1991年度地震活动特点进行了简要分析。     

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE PALMER HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index to departures from average temperature and precipitation conditions is examined. A time series of zero index values was calculated and then one monthly temperature or precipitation value was perturbed. The resulting time series shows the effects on the index of one anomalous value. Independent series were calculated for temperature anomalies of plus and minus 1, 3, 5, and 10F and for precipitation anomalies of 25, 50, 75, 125, 150, and 200 percent of normal for each calendar month for Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Analysis of the time series showed that the period of time required for the index to reflect actual rather than artificial initial conditions could be more than four years. It was also found that the effects of temperature anomalies are insignificant compared to the effects of precipitation anomalies. In some cases, one anomalous precipitation value could result in established wet or dry spells that last for up to two years. Although not examined in detail, the time series suggest that distributions of index values may be asymmetrical and possibly bimodal.     

USING GROUND WATER BASINS AS STORAGE FACILITIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Southern California, now in its fifth consecutive year of drought, has always relied heavily on imported water from the Owens Valley, the State Water Project, and the Colorado River. For various reasons, these sources are now decreasing and water suppliers are being forced to look for new sources. One possible alternative is to store water obtained during peak supply periods for use during dry periods in ground water storage basins. The Santa Ana River Basin in Orange County has already been developed, and is being used to provide water to 25 cities in Orange County. The San Juan Basin, also in Orange County, is being studied as a possible future storage basin. This paper examines some of the positive and negative aspects of developing and using ground water storage basins in Southern California.     

HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE 1988 DROUGHT IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Drought is evaluated in terms of the magnitude and duration of the 1988 spring and summer precipitation shortfall, and according to various components of the hydrologic budget, both surface and sub-surface. The response time of some of these components is investigated, relative to the time of precipitation. Individual water users perceived a beginning and ending of the drought at different times relative to their activities. Some statistics better describe some components of a drought to some users, and better answer some questions, than do others.     

中国东部地区能耗和SO_2排放趋势预测研究

在系统研究我国东部地区１８个省、市、自治区近年来能源消耗和ＳＯ２排放现状的基础上，利用国际上先进的ＬＥＡＰ模式和排放系数法，进行了２０００，２０１０和２０２０年三个时段的能耗和ＳＯ２排放趋势预测。研究中考虑了三峡工程和核电等的影响和各省之间的电平衡，以及有关部门的最新政策和数据。将大型火电厂单独作为点源考虑后，ＳＯ２排放的结果采用科学方法进行了按经纬度的网格化，可以直接作为远距离酸沉降模式的输入文件使用。最后还分析了东部地区的硫沉降趋势。     

浙江省嘉兴市土地资源生产能力及人口承载量的初步研究

本文在分析嘉兴市农业自然资源特点和合理用地结构的基础上,预测不同时期一定生产条件下,单位面积土地上粮食、油料、肉类的生产潜力和在不同生活水平下所能承载的人口数量。     

最简化空气环境影响预测模式的实践

有风时空气环境影响的最简化预测模式,遵循高斯方程,过程的推导严密而具有科学性,适用于高架点源下风向地面污染最大浓度及距离的确定,计算方法删繁就简,预测结果较为准确,对三级环境评价中的空气环境影响预测具有广泛的实践意义。     

北京市防震减灾示范区系统工程--预报、通讯、指挥、现场、整合部分

新组建的北京市地震局迫切需要建成一个比较完善的地震业务工作体系,首都圈防震减灾示范区系统工程建设为北京市地震工作实现"三大工作体系"带来了契机.本文重点介绍北京市防震减灾示范区系统工程中的预报、通讯、指挥、现场部分,为了提高效率、节省资金,项目组还在硬件、信息和资源共享、网络平台、虚拟专网、各系统间的联接、可持续发展等方面进行了整合.     

高速公路建设项目水土流失预测方法研究

根据当前高速公路建设项目水土流失预测结果不准确的情况，分析容易使预测结果产生偏差的影响因素，并提出了相应的预测方法。     

分形及其在地震研究中的应用

本文简要介绍了分形的基本理论,对分形在地震研究中的应用进行了阐述.着重介绍了近年来地震分形在地震预报中应用的一些成果.在此基础上,提出了作者对于开展进一步工作的意见,认为应该对区域和全球的地震分形进行全局性、系统性的研究,逐渐探索地震分形的物理机制和动力学机制,从而在地震研究上取得新进展.