杭州煤场煤尘环境影响预测分析

介绍杭州煤场煤炭堆放，装卸及运输过程过程中 煤尘产生量的估算法，估算煤尘的分粒瞬时源强，单源及多源叠加下风向煤尘预测浓度公式及预测为同类型煤场大气环境影响评价提供参考。     

中国能源消费与温室气体排放预测分析

构造了中国18个部门的能源—经济—环境投入产出模型,分析了能源消耗系数的变动规律,对2020年我国能源消费量与温室气体排放量进行了预测。结果表明:我国2020年的能源消费总量为29.5亿t(标准煤),等于1990年的299％,1995年的229％;煤炭消费最为26亿t,石油消费量为4.1亿t,天然气消费量为1420亿m~3,水电6400亿kW·h;能源消费弹性系数为0.43左右;CO_2排放量为17.50亿t(碳当量)。     

江苏新沂市越流含水层的地下水资源评价

中国利用越流含水层作为城市供水水源地的实例并不多见。本文根据实际开采资料,利用伽略金（Ｇａｌｅｒｋｉｎ）有限元法计算当补给层水头变化时越流含水层的地下水资源,并提出水位预测的方法。还利用补给层的水量平衡评价越流含水层开采量的保证程度,预测了新水源地投产后对老水源地的影响。本文对于正确认识越流含水层的地下水资源特性及其在城市供水中的意义有重要参考价值。     

采用门限自回归模型预测环境空气质量

应用汤家豪博士提出的门限自回归模型，以上海市环境空气质量时间序列监测数据和相应的气象数据，建立门限自回归大气污染预测模型，对上海市环境空气质量进行预测预报。结果表明：门限自回归模型计算较为简便且便于计算机自动建模。显著性检验表明门限自回归预报方程高度显著，在实际应用中，采用最新的数据建模和采用分站建立模型的方法可以使预测精度进一步提高。     

An Application of the T‐TEL Assessment Method to Evaluate Connectivity in a Lake‐Dominated Watershed after Drought

Lakes are landscape features that influence connectivity of mass and energy by being foci for the reception, mixing, and provision of water and material. Where lake fractions are high, they influence hydrological connectivity. This behavior was exemplified in the Baker Creek watershed in Canada's Northwest Territories during a two‐year drought in which many lake levels declined below outlet elevations. This study evaluated how lakes controlled surface runoff connectivity reestablishment following the drought using a new assessment method, T‐TEL (time scales — thresholds, excesses, losses). Analysis of daily data showed that during a summer period following the drought, connectivity occurred between 0% and 41% of the time. The size of run‐of‐the‐river lakes relative to their upstream watershed area, and the upstream lake fraction, are two factors for connectivity. These terms represent a lake's ability to control the size of storage deficits relative to rainfall, and evaporation and storage losses along pathways. The connectivity magnitude–duration curve only aligned with the watershed flow duration curve during high‐water conditions, implying lakes functioned as individuals rather than as part of a perennial watercourse during much of the study. The T‐TEL method can be used to quantify consistent metrics of hydrologic connectivity that can be used for regionalization exercises and understanding hydrologic controls on material transport.     

Public Perceptions of California's Exceptional Drought

While the exceptional drought in California ended in 2017, the state is expected to experience similar droughts in the future. Understanding how individuals perceive the causes and consequences of drought will help frame future communication and planning efforts. We surveyed a panel of Californian residents about their perceptions of the 2012–2017 drought. We found a major disconnect in how our respondents perceived drought and water use. Respondents perceived the drought as being caused primarily by climatic factors and underestimated the role human water use, particularly agricultural use, had in exacerbating drought. Comparing our respondents across the state and across socio‐demographics, there were few differences in concern about drought but several differences in how residents thought drought should be managed. Such research can help water managers communicate about the specific concerns the public has about future droughts, as well as address misperceptions about the relationship between drought and water use.     

Drought can offset potential water use efficiency of forest ecosystems from rising atmospheric CO2

Increasing atmospheric CO₂ is both leading to climate change and providing a potential fertilisation effect on plant growth. However, southern Australia has also experienced a significant decline in rainfall over the last 30 years, resulting in increased vegetative water stress. To better understand the dynamics and responses of Australian forest ecosystems to drought and elevated CO₂, the magnitude and trend in water use efficiency (WUE) of forests, and their response to drought and elevated CO₂ from 1982 to 2014 were analysed, using the best available model estimates constrained by observed fluxes from simulations with fixed and time-varying CO₂. The ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET) (WUEe) was used to identify the ecosystem scale WUE, while the ratio of GPP to transpiration (Tr) (WUEc) was used as a measure of canopy scale WUE. WUE increased significantly in northern Australia (p < 0.001) for woody savannas (WSA), whereas there was a slight decline in the WUE of evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF) in the southeast and southwest of Australia. The lag of WUEc to drought was consistent and relatively short and stable between biomes (≤3 months), but notably varied for WUEe, with a long time-lag (mean of 10 months). The dissimilar responses of WUEe and WUEc to climate change for different geographical areas result from the different proportion of Tr in ET. CO₂ fertilization and a wetter climate enhanced WUE in northern Australia, whereas drought offset the CO₂ fertilization effect in southern Australia.     

城市垃圾焚烧发电项目烟气中重金属干沉降对土壤的影响

焚烧炉烟气中重金属沉降造成的土壤污染是城市垃圾焚烧发电项目环境影响评价及环境保护管理工作关注的重点。以某城市垃圾焚烧发电项目为例,在确定焚烧炉排放源强及气象数据等资料的基础上,采用AERMOD模型预测焚烧烟气中Pb、Hg、Cd的沉降特征和对项目所在区域土壤环境质量的影响。结果表明:土壤中污染物浓度随离源距离的增加均呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,其中Hg的占标率最大为27.2%,其次Cd为21.8%,Pb的占标率最小为4.7%,预测的重金属浓度均满足《土壤环境质量标准》(GB 15618—1995)二级标准限值要求;污染物分布与风密切相关,利用污染系数衡量风对污染物扩散传输的影响,可知污染扩散距离北向大于南向、东向大于西向,南北向大于东西向,污染系数与污染物沉降量分布一致。研究可为气体涉重金属污染物扩散沉降对土壤环境影响相关领域的科研、应用工作提供参考和借鉴。     

基于外检测的新投产管道合于使用评价实践

目的落实油气管道定期检验工作,确保管道安全平稳运行,方法通过对西南管道公司所辖某天然气管道进行外腐蚀直接检测,包括管线敷设环境调查、防腐层状况不开挖检测、管道阴极保护有效性评价检测以及开挖直接检验。根据检测结果进行合于使用评价,包括应力分析计算、剩余强度评估、管道剩余寿命预测等。结果管道允许使用,再评价间隔5年。结论直接检测方法采用多种检测手段对管道外腐蚀情况和防腐保护系统进行管道全面检验,并出具合于使用评价,是一种综合的完整性评价方法,符合法定检验的要求,其评价结果可作为管道完整性管理的可靠依据,可据此制定管道的维修方案和预防措施。     

月亮对中国大震影响初探

本文利用中国1903～1984年的地震资料,统计分析了中国M>6.8级以上大地震次数与白赤交点回归周期以及回归月之间的对应关系,并且统计分析了发震时震中月亮时角的分布规律,提出了“临震安全时区”的概念。同时还统计分析了大震与朔望月、近点月的关系。对于如何利用这些相关现象进行大震预报,也作了初步探讨。