基于灰色马尔可夫的道路交通事故预测

探讨灰色马尔可夫模型在道路交通事故中的具体应用。灰色模型适用于短期、数据量少和波动不大的预测问题,在长期预测时,数据序列拟合较差,预测精度偏低;而马尔可夫链适用于长期、数据序列随机波动大的预测问题。灰色马尔可夫模型结合了灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫理论的优点,利用灰色模型进行长期预测,再利用马尔可夫链理论进行波动状态预测,最后得到期望值。该模型克服了随机波动性数据对道路交通事故预测精度的影响,提高了灰色预测的准确度。实例结果,证明灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型具有较好的应用价值,为道路交通安全管理提供了有用依据。     

Residential Water Demand Management: Lessons from Aurora,Colorado1

Abstract: Residential water demand is a function of several factors, some of which are within the control of water utilities (e.g., price, water restrictions, rebate programs) and some of which are not (e.g., climate and weather, demographic characteristics). In this study of Aurora, Colorado, factors influencing residential water demand are reviewed during a turbulent drought period (2000‐2005). Findings expand the understanding of residential demand in at least three salient ways: first, by documenting that pricing and outdoor water restriction policies interact with each other ensuring that total water savings are not additive of each program operating independently; second, by showing that the effectiveness of pricing and restrictions policies varies among different classes of customers (i.e., low, middle, and high volume water users) and between predrought and drought periods; and third, in demonstrating that real‐time information about consumptive use (via the Water Smart Reader) helps customers reach water‐use targets.     

肥料配施对土壤蓄水抗旱性能的影响

田间和室内施肥实验观测结果表明,有机肥和氮素化肥配合施用可以显著提高土壤的持水容量,并有效地抑制裸土蒸发.连续4年适量的稻草和化肥氮素配施与单施化肥相比,粘盘黄褐土的田间持水量增加20%左右,作物初萎土壤含水量有所降低,因而有效水储量增加;裸土蒸发过程中,在0～8×104Pa吸力范围内,随着土壤含水量降低,施有机肥的土壤吸力陡增,失去单位数量的水需要做更多的功,因而蒸发强度减弱,15d累积蒸发量比单施化肥的土壤减少26%.秸杆与化学氮肥配合施用,可以明显增强土壤的蓄水抗旱机制.     

浙江省梅汛期洪涝灾情分析和预测

通过所构设的雨涝强度、雨涝影响面积等统计量来估计浙江省梅汛期的灾情,有较高的准确率,能估计出极端情况,为灾害评估工作提供了新的思路。     

2000年全球气象灾害评价

2000年,全球气候持续较常年偏暖。赤道中,东太平洋地区强拉尼娜事件在1月再次达到峰值后,迅速减弱,强拉尼娜事件对全球,特别是对热带地区产生了较大的影响,北半球许多地区冬季出现严寒天气,夏季又遭热浪袭击,严重的高温、干旱、森林大火困扰全球。而亚洲南部、西欧、南部非洲、南美北部的许多地区暴雨频繁。估计气象自然灾害造成全球经济损失达上千亿美元。数亿人口受灾。     

河北省旱涝灾害历史特征研究

通过分析河北省旱涝灾害的历史状况,得出黉灾呈逐年减轻、时灾呈逐年加重的认识,旱灾是河北省的一种主要自然灾害,探讨了该省旱涝灾害的时空分布规律,在时间上具有季节性、持续性和阶段性,在空间上具有地域性,对增强水患意识,防汛抗旱,今后的防灾抗灾提供了科学依据。     

应用GIS提高地震分析预报能力

简要介绍了地理信息系统中的空间分析功能 ,并以一些实例展示了其在地震分析预报中可能的用途。研究表明 ,地理信息系统不仅可以对数据和图形进行编辑、显示、查询、分类 ,它还有地图距离分析、面分析、局部统计、邻域分析等等强大的空间分析功能 ,而将这些功能用到地震预报中 ,则有可能得到一些新的思路 ,提出新的方法 ,提高地震分析预报水平。     

依据波动信息预报地震

从检讨现今地震预报问题入手 ,正视其不足 ,寻找新的可避免其不足的途径 ,提出了依据波动信息预报地震的概念。这里所说的波动信息是特指通过地球质点传播的各种波所固有并夹带的信息如地震波信息、电磁波信息、潮汐波信息等等。本文将波动和波谱的检测与分析研究归结为 3条 :1 用什么仪器、摆成什么阵势检测可用于地震预报的波动信息 ;2 如何分析这些检测到的波动信息并确定与地震孕育、发展、发生有关的信息参数 ;3 如何将有关信息参数形成地震预报判据或指标 ,预报未来地震的时空强三要素     

Drought-induced sulphate release from a wetland in south-central Ontario

Increased sulphate (SO₄) export from wetlands following summer droughts in central Ontario, Canada has been associated with the delayed chemical recovery of downstream surface waters following decreased sulphur (S) emissions. Prolonged summer droughts result in a decrease or cessation of stream flow, declines in wetland water table level and oxidation of reduced S compounds to SO₄, which is subsequently flushed into drainage streams when stream flow resumes. Sulphate input-output budget calculations (1983–1995 and 1999–2001) at a conifer Sphagnum swamp in the Plastic Lake catchment, indicate that SO₄ is retained in most years but is exported on a net basis following particularly severe summer droughts that result in the cessation of stream flow for more than 54 days (95% CI: 41–72 days). Hindcast calculations using long-term (1916–2000) stream discharge records from a nearby station indicate that while droughts occurred frequently in south-central Ontario over the past 85 years, sufficiently dry conditions to cause net SO₄ export occurred in only18 of the past 85 years, and indicate a cumulative positive SO₄ balance for the swamp (i.e. net SO₄ retention). Furthermore, the S pool at the Plastic Lake swamp has been estimated to be ∼1500 kg S/ha in the upper 40 cm peat layer, which is large compared to the amount of net SO₄ export that occurs even in years with particularly dry summers (e.g. −43 kg S/ha in 1987/88). Together, these data suggest that the wetland S pool at Plastic Lake has not been depleted by previous droughts and will continue to sustain episodic drought-related SO₄ export for the foreseeable future.     

马尔科夫链在环境质量预测中的应用

鉴于目前环境质量预测在理论方法和实践经验上的缺乏,把马尔科夫链引入环境质量的预测中,将各种污染物的浓度变化过程视作马尔科夫过程,通过预测各种污染物的污染负荷系数来推知其浓度值。实例中通过多元回归分析计算出马尔科夫转移矩阵,以2005年辽宁省5种大气污染物的污染负荷系数作为初始向量,预测了今后5年的变化。然后利用GM(1,1)模型预测出降尘的具体浓度值,由此计算出了2006-2010年辽宁省5种污染物的浓度值。