变权组合模型在景观水体水质模拟中的应用

针对景观水体的水质模拟与预测问题,在BP神经网络和支持向量机模型的基础上,建立了权重随输入量变化的变权组合模型。该模型既能充分利用各个单一模型的优点,又能避免固定权重分配的弊端。经实例验证,与单一的BP神经网络和支持向量机模型相比,变权组合模型拟合精度更高,预测结果更为准确。     

江苏省8个沿海造林树种的耐盐性评价研究

以江苏省盐城市大丰区沿海地区为研究区域,选择中山杉（Taxodium 'Zhongshanshan'）、白榆（Ulmus pumila）、落羽杉（Taxodium distichum）、榔榆（Ulmus parvifolia）、乌桕（Triadica sebifera）、青皮柳（Salix ohsidare）、构树（Broussonetia papyrifera）和苦楝（Melia azedarach）8个造林树种,研究不同树种造林地土壤含盐量及其与树木成活率、胸径和树高生长量的关系,并对8个树种的耐盐性进行隶属函数法综合评价,以进一步研究江苏沿海地区典型树种的耐盐性。结果表明,48个调查样地土壤含盐量为0.4~11.9 mg/g;不同样地之间的土壤含盐量差异较大;土壤含盐量较高的样地具有典型的盐分表聚现象;8个树种的成活率、胸径和树高年生长量与土壤含盐量均呈负相关。8个造林树种的耐盐性评价结果显示,其耐盐能力表现为白榆>苦楝>落羽杉>乌桕>榔榆>中山杉>青皮柳>构树。其中,白榆和苦楝可耐受6 mg/g的土壤含盐量;落羽杉、乌桕、榔榆和中山杉可耐受4 mg/g的土壤含盐量;青皮柳和构树只能耐受3 mg/g的土壤含盐量。白榆和苦楝可在含盐量较高的沿海地区造林,落羽杉、乌桕、榔榆和中山杉可在含盐量中等的沿海地区造林,青皮柳和构树只能在含盐量较低的沿海地区造林。

     

长短桩复合地基承载力发挥系数取值研究

根据水泥土长短桩复合地基试验结果,得到了考虑荷载水平的水泥土长短桩复合地基承载力计算公式。然后,考虑复合地基中桩体、桩间土和复合地基沉降量之间的相互关系,利用现场载荷试验成果,对单桩复合地基和长短桩复合地基的桩间土承载力发挥系数和合理的s/b取值范围进行了对比研究,得到了长短桩复合地基桩间土承载力发挥系数的计算方法。结果表明:长短桩复合地基桩体先于桩间土出现破坏,桩体极限荷载点对应的复合地基s/b值为s/b的上限;当垫层模量Ec为100M Pa时,长短桩复合地基s/b上限为0.0034,对应的桩间土承载力发挥系数为0.29。     

连续施用城市污泥后林地土壤中重金属的含量变化及生态风险

将堆肥污泥施用于林地能够增加土壤肥力,促进林木增长,具有广阔的应用前景,但污泥中所含重金属进入土壤环境后的积累特征及所引起的生态风险问题亦备受关注.连续5年将污泥堆肥产品施用于林地并对相应林地土壤重金属含量进行了同步监测,采用单因子指数法和潜在生态危害指数法分析评价了污泥堆肥泥质、污泥堆肥不同施用比例以及是否连续施肥等...     

Comparison of a two-stage sampling design and its composite sample alternative: An application to soil studies

The objective of a long-term soil survey is to determine the mean concentrations of several chemical parameters for the pre-defined soil layers and to compare them with the corresponding values in the past. A two-stage random sampling procedure is used to achieve this goal. In the first step, n subplots are selected from N subplots by simple random sampling without replacement; in the second step, m sampling sites are chosen within each of the n selected subplots. Thus n · m soil samples are collected for each soil layer. The idea of the composite sample design comes from the challenge of reducing very expensive laboratory analyses: m laboratory samples from one subplot and one soil layer are physically mixed to form a composite sample. From each of the n selected subplots, one composite sample per soil layer is analyzed in the laboratory, thus n per soil layer in total. In this paper we show that the cost is reduced by the factor m — 1 when instead of the two-stage sampling its composite sample alternative is used; however, the variance of the composite sample mean is increased. In the case of positive intraclass correlation the increase is less than 12.5%; in the case of negative intraclass correlation the increase depends on the properties of the variable as well. For the univariate case we derive the optimal number of subplots and sampling sites. A case study is discussed at the end.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Tim Dyson, Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects
R. S. J. Sparks, M. I. Bursik, S. N. Carey, J. S. Gilbert, L. S. Glaze, H. Sigurdsson and A. W. Woods, Volcanic Plumes
Jasper Becker, Hungry Ghosts: Mao's Secret Famine
Dali L. Yang, Calamity and Reform in China: State, Rural Society and Institutional Change Since the Great Leap Forward     

Scientists as Stakeholders in Conservation of Hydrothermal Vents

Abstract: Hydrothermal vents are deep‐sea ecosystems that are almost exclusively known and explored by scientists rather than the general public. Continuing scientific discoveries arising from study of hydrothermal vents are concommitant with the increased number of scientific cruises visiting and sampling vent ecosystems. Through a bibliometric analysis, we assessed the scientific value of hydrothermal vents relative to two of the most well‐studied marine ecosystems, coral reefs and seagrass beds. Scientific literature on hydrothermal vents is abundant, of high impact, international, and interdisciplinary and is comparable in these regards with literature on coral reefs and seagrass beds. Scientists may affect hydrothermal vents because their activities are intense and spatially and temporally concentrated in these small systems. The potential for undesirable effects from scientific enterprise motivated the creation of a code of conduct for environmentally and scientifically benign use of hydrothermal vents for research. We surveyed scientists worldwide engaged in deep‐sea research and found that scientists were aware of the code of conduct and thought it was relevant to conservation, but they did not feel informed or confident about the respect other researchers have for the code. Although this code may serve as a reminder of scientists’ environmental responsibilities, conservation of particular vents (e.g., closures to human activity, specific human management) may effectively ensure sustainable use of vent ecosystems for all stakeholders.     

完善我国森林立法势在必行

通过对1998年长江、嫩江特大洪水的反思,指出了目前森林立法中存在的种种弊端,从而提出了完善我国森林立法的建议。     

Larval chemical defence and evolution of host shifts in Chrysomela leaf beetles

Summary. Larvae of Chrysomela leaf beetles release for defence volatile compounds belonging to various chemical families. This study focuses on the defensive strategy based on the esterification of isobutyric acid and 2-methylbutyric acid with a wide variety of alcohols taken up from the host plant. To date, only two species are known to produce these repellents C. interrupta, which is associated with Betulaceae and C. lapponica which occurs either on Betulaceae or Salicaceae.? In order to know if other species have developed this chemical defence and how the food plant influences the secretion of these toxins, we targeted by mass spectrometry the presence of iso- and 2-methylbutyric acids and esters of them in the defensive secretions of Chrysomela larvae exclusively associated with Betulaceae or Salicaceae. ?Screening analyses reveal that the synthesis of these compounds is a common character restricted to all the members belonging to the C. interrupta group sensu Brown (1956) regardless of the host-plant family. These results suggest that the biochemical mechanism leading to the synthesis of these compounds could be considered as a synapomorphy meaning that the group is probably monophyletic. ?Defensive secretions of the members of the interrupta group are quantitatively assayed for iso- and 2-methylbutyric acids and their (Z)-3-hexenyl esters. Results reveal a chemical plasticity developed by Chrysomela species associated with Salicaceae. The amounts of iso- and 2-methylbutyric acids derivatives and of salicylaldehyde in their larval secretions depend on the food plant and on its content in phenolglucosides. Received 5 October 1998; accepted 25 November 1998.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.