水污染突发事件：演化模型与应急管理

概述了突发事件演化研究的现状,总结了现阶段中国水污染突发事件的典型案例,研究了事件的演化过程,提出把社会因素和全过程干预作为水污染突发事件演化动因的一个重要方面,并在此基础上分析了水污染突发事件演化的主要动力因素,运用灾害学、应急管理、环境科学等相关理论构建了事件演化的动力因素体系,最后从系统分析的角度构建了水污染突发事件演化模型。研究表明：社会因素和应急干预对水污染突发事件的演化具有推动作用;事件演化具有阶段性,不同阶段的动力因素存在差异;水污染突发事件应急管理具有多目标性,单一目标应急管理不能有效控制水污染突发事件演化。研究水污染突发事件演化机理可为政府有效地预警与事件初期的应急决策提供重要的理论依据。     

基于EFDC和WASP模型的突发水污染事故影响的预测预警

近年来,我国突发水污染事故频发。长江作为我国最重要的水源地,其水质安全受到沿江众多化工企业可能突发污染事故的威胁。因此,开展南京化工园突发水污染事故影响的预测预警研究意义重大。基于EFDC和WASP模型,建立了南京化工园突发水污染事故影响的预测模型,并以龙翔甲苯罐区泄漏为例进行了事故情景模拟。研究表明：所建的预测模型能够对南京化工园突发水污染事故后污染物的水环境行为进行快速的模拟和预测,并且能够在地理信息系统的图层上以动画的形式实时展示事故影响的范围和程度,可以为南京化工园突发水污染事故的预警应急提供决策依据;基于EFDC构建的二维水动力模型能够较为准确地反映研究区的水动力情况;事故情景中排放的甲苯在研究江段能够较快地稀释扩散,挥发作用对甲苯的衰减过程影响显著,平水期比枯水期更有利于水体中甲苯的衰减     

河流近域土地利用格局与水质相关性分析——以巢湖流域为例

以河流近域土地利用构成与水环境质量间定量关系为研究对象,基于巢湖流域40个水质监测断面和320个河流近域作用区,运用GIS空间分析功能计算不同尺度作用区内土地利用构成,借助相关分析、冗余分析(RDA)等数理统计手段,分析土地利用构成与水质指数间的相关关系;并分析和比较了流域内山区和平原地区土地利用构成与水质之间关系。结果表明,巢湖流域近河道地区土地利用构成对各水质指数有重要影响,且受地形因素影响。其中,建设用地对河流水质恶化具有明显作用;河流沿岸林地布局能显著改善水质,尤其是对氨氮和高锰酸盐指数敏感;耕地面积变化与水质相关性不显著。RDA冗余分析证实了不同尺度下的土地利用类型对水环境影响具有尺度效应。研究成果对巢湖流域水环境管理具有重要的实际指导意义,并为同类研究提供借鉴     

Salting-out phenomenon and 1-octanol/water partition coefficient of metalaxyl pesticide

In this paper, we present the effect of inorganic cations such as Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ on the salting-out phenomenon of metalaxyl from pure water to aqueous salt solutions. Moreover the 1-octanol/water partition coefficient in pure water is presented. To accomplish this, aqueous solubility of metalaxyl was determined in pure water, in different salt solution (NaCl, KCl, CaCl₂ and MgCl₂), and at different concentration level ranging from 0.01 to 1.5 M. The 1-octanol/water partition coefficient was determined using the static shake-flask method. Solubility was determined using dynamic saturation method for pure water in the range of 298.15-325.15 K and at 298.15 K for different salt solutions. The solubility value in pure water for studied interval was found constant (m = 3.118 × 10⁻² mol kg⁻¹).Solubility values were used to calculate the standard molar Gibbs free energy of dissolution (Δ_solG°) and transfer (Δ_trG°) at 298.15 K. The values of Δ_trG° from pure to all studied aqueous salt solutions did not exceed 2 kJ mol⁻¹, the value of Δ_solG° of dissolution is 18.5 ±0.72 kJ mol⁻¹. The 1-octanol/water partition coefficient in pure water log K_o/w is equal to 1.69. The obtained results confirm the classification of the neutral metalaxyl as a slightly hydrophobic molecule.     

Zero-valent iron nanoparticles in treatment of acid mine water from in situ uranium leaching

Acid mine water from in situ chemical leaching of uranium (Straz pod Ralskem, Czech Republic) was treated in laboratory scale experiments by zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI). For the first time, nZVI were applied for the treatment of the real acid water system containing the miscellaneous mixture of pollutants, where the various removal mechanisms occur simultaneously. Toxicity of the treated saline acid water is caused by major contaminants represented by aluminum and sulphates in a high concentration, as well as by microcontaminants like As, Be, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, U, V, and Zn. Laboratory batch experiments proved a significant decrease in concentrations of all the monitored pollutants due to an increase in pH and a decrease in oxidation-reduction potential related to an application of nZVI. The assumed mechanisms of contaminants removal include precipitation of cations in a lower oxidation state, precipitation caused by a simple pH increase and co-precipitation with the formed iron oxyhydroxides. The possibility to control the reaction kinetics through the nature of the surface stabilizing shell (polymer vs. FeO nanolayer) is discussed as an important practical aspect.     

Spatial and seasonal variations in atrazine and metolachlor surface water concentrations in Ontario (Canada) using ELISA

Concerns regarding the impacts of pesticides on aquatic species and drinking water sources have increased demands on water quality monitoring programs; however the costs of sample analysis can be prohibitive. In this study we investigated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) as a cost-effective, high through-put method for measuring pesticide concentrations in surface waters. Seven hundred and thirty-nine samples from 158 locations throughout Ontario were analysed for atrazine and metolachlor from April to October 2007. Concentrations ranged from <0.1 to 3.91 μg L⁻¹ (median = 0.12 μg L⁻¹) for atrazine and from <0.1 to 1.83 μg L⁻¹ (median = 0.09 μg L⁻¹) for metolachlor. Peak concentrations occurred in late spring/early summer, in rural agricultural locations, and decreased over the remainder of the growing season for both herbicides. About 3% of the samples that had ELISA results occurring above the limit of quantification (0.10 μg L⁻¹) were evaluated against gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Linear regression analysis revealed a R² value of 0.88 and 0.39, for atrazine and metolachlor, respectively. ELISA tended to overestimate concentrations for atrazine and metolachlor, most likely because the ELISA kits also detect their metabolites. Atrazine data suggest that ELISA may be used complementary with GC-MS analysis to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of a water quality monitoring study. The commercially available metolachlor ELISA kit requires further investigation. ELISA may be used to detect atrazine and metolachlor in surface water samples, but it is not recommended as a quantitative replacement for traditional analytical methods.     

中国工业化进程与能源矿产供需均衡的研究

工业化与能源需求的均衡关系及解决工业化进程中能源供需失衡的战略途径是中国工业化进程中需要探讨的重大问题.文章运用协整技术,就1990-2008年间中国工业化进程与能源需求协整关系的检验,认为中国工业化与能源需求增长具有长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求将继续保持增长,能源利用效率也将持续提高.然而工业化进程中重工业化高能耗结构特征与能源低效利用并存的困境以及能源供需矛盾不利于能源供需平衡的平稳发展.我国应适应工业化进程的基本规律,转变能源消费方式;走新型工业化道路,适当限制低附加值产业发展,鼓励产业向离附加值、低能耗、高技术产业转移;在实现能源开发利用技术进步和创新的同时.有效利用国内外能源资源;建立能源应急机制等战略途径来实现工业化进程中能源供需平衡发展.     

城乡二元制度对农民工市民化影响的实证分析

将影响农民工市民化的制度因素归结为城乡分割、城市偏向的城乡二元制度,分析了这一制度的内涵和基本特征,并运用Logistic回归模型和入户调查数据对这一制度对农民工市民化意愿、市民化能力和市民化进程的影响进行实证分析,结果发现,虽然农民工具有比较强烈的市民化愿望,但由于受到市民化能力的制约,绝大多数农民工无法转化为市民,因此尽快提离农民工的市民化能力成为促进农民工市民化的关键;在城乡二元制度中,除了城乡二元户籍制度之外,城乡二元就业制度、城乡二元社会保障制度、城乡二元土地制度和城乡二元教育制度对农民工市民化意愿和市民化能力,进而对农民工的市民化进程具有明显的阻碍作用:因此,未来城乡二元制度的创新重点不能再继续停留在形式化的城乡二元户籍制度层面,而应该尽快切换到对农民工的预期和收入等权利和待遇具有实质性影响的城乡二元就业制度、城乡二元社会保障制度、城乡二元土地制度和城乡二元教育制度上来.     

社会产品价格对水价的敏感性——基于虚拟水贸易框架的分析

虚拟水贸易是缺水地区从社会经济系统层面解决水资源短缺问题的一种策略选择,但由于长期的低水价,致使很多国家和地区的现实经济模式与虚拟水贸易战略的预期相悖.文章基于水资源投入产出分析方法,构建虚拟水贸易理论框架下的水价敏感性模型,分析水价上涨对各产业产品价格带来的影响.模型结果显示,区域水价提升对各产业产品价格的影响不仅在于该产业直接用水成本的上升,同时也不得不承受其他产业成本上升带来的间接影响,并且这两种影响作用是累加的.宁夏数据的实证得出,水价上涨对农业产品价格的影响最为强烈,批发和零售贸易餐饮业次之,对服务业产品价格的影响最弱.因此,可通过制定合理的水价调整策略,激励水资源极度缺乏的地区实施虚拟水贸易战略,避免过分强调传统的重农发展模式,促进产业结构向先进制造业和服务业转变,实现有限水资源更为合理的利用模式,达到经济发展与水生态的和谐局面.