高速列车ATP控车模式的形式化模型与安全性分析

通过评述当前高速列车的发展现状和趋势,结合我国与欧洲在高速列车应用与相关技术研发方面的差距;对ATP控车模式进行分析,并提出采用时段演算针对实时、连续系统的形式化描述工具;根据时段演算的基本符号、公理、定理和推导规则,建立基于时段演算的ATP控车模式形式化模型;通过对模型的推演,对ATP控车模式进行初步安全性分析,发现ATP控车模式下对安全运行发挥主要作用的几个关键环节,特别是确保列车安全行驶,ATP控车与人工控制在转换时应满足的若干时间约束。研究的成果,为设计安全、可靠的ATP系统提供新的理论和分析手段。     

基于GIS的喀斯特山区实照时数时空分布研究——以广西巴马瑶族自治县为例

论文采用基于DEM的起伏地形下实照时数计算模型,以广西巴马县为例,在GIS技术的支持下对研究区域实照时数的时空分布进行模拟和结果验证,结果表明,研究区域内实照时数模拟值和气象站实测值之间具有较好的一致性,决定系数高达0.996。并探讨喀斯特地区实照时数的时空分布特点,分析了不同时间尺度下实照时数的变化情况,讨论坡度、坡向、地形起伏度和地表粗糙度等地形因子对实照时数空间分布的影响。该方法可为喀斯特地区提供重要的气候基础数据,对喀斯特地区小气候和农业气象资源分布的研究有重要意义。     

Trends of the sunshine duration and diffuse radiation percentage on sunny days in urban agglomerations of China during 1960–2005

The long-term observational data of sunshine duration (SD) and diffuse radiation percentage (defined as diffuse solar radiation/total solar radiation, DRP) on sunny days during 1960–2005 were analyzed in 7 urban agglomerations and the whole of China. The results show that the sunny sunshine duration (SSD) has decreased significantly except at a few stations over northwestern China in the past 46 years. An obvious decrease of the SSD is found in eastern China, with the trend coefficients lower than − 0.8. Accompanied by the SSD decline, the sunny diffuse radiation percentage (SDRP) in most stations shows obvious increasing trends during the 46 years. The averaged SDRP over China has increased 2.33% per decade, while the averaged SSD shows a decrease of − 0.13 hr/day per decade. The correlation coefficient between SDRP and SSD is − 0.88. SSD decreased over urban agglomerations (small to large city clusters) in the past 46 years, especially in large cities and medium cities, due to the strong anthropogenic activities and air pollution represented by aerosol option depth (AOD) and tropospheric column NO₂ (TroNO₂). On the regional scale, SSD has an opposite trend from SDRP during 1960 to 2005, and the variation trends of regional mean values of SSD and SDRP in southeastern China are more pronounced than those in northwestern China.     

东莞地区PM2.5湿清除的观测研究

通过对东莞市2013—2017年降水、PM_2.5观测数据统计研究发现,降雨及PM_2.5浓度存在负相关关系,降雨对PM_2.5具有一定的清除效果.PM_2.5浓度下降的降水过程有376次,浓度上升的降水过程有333次,部分降水过程浓度出现明显反弹,应与气溶胶再悬浮机制有关.在所有PM_2.5初始浓度低于40 μg·m^-3的个例中,浓度下降的个例占比约49.4%,而当PM_2.5初始浓度高于40 μg·m^-3时,浓度下降的个例占比约71.2%,说明PM_2.5粒子数量较多时,雨滴对粒子的捕获能力较强,降雨前PM_2.5的初始浓度可以作为判断降雨后PM_2.5浓度是否下降的预报依据.雨强小,也是造成雨后PM_2.5浓度反弹的原因.对于有效清除个例,雨强与清除率存在正相关关系,雨强越强,整体的清除作用有所加强.降水持续时间是影响PM_2.5清除作用的重要因素,持续时间超过6 h的小雨降水过程能达到40%的清除率效果,中雨以上降水过程持续时间越长,PM_2.5的清除效果越好.在浓度反弹的个例中,在低的初始浓度条件下,降水强度与降水持续时间对PM_2.5浓度反弹影响均较小,在初始浓度大于30 μg·m^-3的条件下,平均反弹幅度收窄,初始浓度的增加,使得雨滴与颗粒物之间的碰并作用加强,降水强度的增大,使这种碰并作用进一步加强,进而制约了PM_2.5浓度反弹的幅度.降雨末期,细粒径颗粒物数浓度回升明显,小雨滴蒸发使细粒子脱离再次在空中悬浮,是造成雨后颗粒物浓度出现回升的主要原因.     

Effects of Urbanization on Flow Duration and Stream Flashiness: A Case Study of Puget Sound Streams,Western Washington,USA

The overall influence of urbanization on how flows of different frequency might change over time, while important in hydrologic design, remains imprecisely known. In this study, we investigate the effects of urbanization on flow duration curves (FDCs) and flow variability through a case study of eight watersheds that underwent different amounts of growth, in the Puget Sound region in Western Washington State, United States. We computed annual FDCs from flow records spanning 1960‐2010 and, after accounting for the effects of precipitation, we conducted statistical trend analyses on flow metrics to quantify how key FDC percentiles changed with time in response to urbanization. In the urban watersheds, the entire FDC tended to increase in magnitude of flow, especially the 95th‐99th percentile of the daily mean flow series, which increased by an average of 43%. Stream flashiness in urban watersheds was found to increase by an average of 70%. The increases in FDC magnitude and flashiness in urbanizing watersheds are most likely a result of increasing watershed imperviousness and altered hydrologic routing. Rural watersheds were found to have decreasing FDC magnitude over the same time period, which is possibly due to anthropogenic extractions of groundwater, and increasing stream flashiness, which is likely a result of reductions in base flow and increasing precipitation intensity and variability.     

Estimation of Daily Streamflow of Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds by Combining Estimated Magnitude and Sequence

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined. Magnitude is modeled using the flow duration curve (FDC), whereas sequence is modeled by transferring streamflow sequence of gauged watershed(s). This study tests the applicability of the approach on watersheds ranging in size from about 25‐7,226 km² in Southeastern Coastal Plain (U.S.) with substantial surface storage of wetlands. A 19‐point regionalized FDC is developed to estimate streamflow magnitude using the three most selected variables (drainage area, hydrologic soil index, and maximum 24‐h precipitation with a recurrence interval of 100 years) by a greedy‐heuristic search process. The results of validation on four watersheds (Trent River, North Carolina: 02092500; Satilla River, Georgia: 02226500; Black River, South Carolina: 02136000; and Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina: 02176500) yielded Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.86‐0.98 for the predicted magnitude and 0.09‐0.84 for the predicted daily streamflow over a simulation period of 1960‐2010. The prediction accuracy of the method on two headwater watersheds at Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina was weak, but comparable to simulations by MIKE‐SHE.     

RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD UNDER GRAZING IN FOOTHILLS FESCUE GRASSLANDS OF ALBERTA1

ABSTRACT: Grazing can have a profound impact on infiltration and thus runoff and erosion. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effects of select grazing systems on rainfall and snowmelt induced runoff and sediment yield from sloped areas of the foothills fescue grasslands of Alberta, Canada. The effects of two grazing intensities (heavy and very heavy) for two durations (short duration and continuous throughout the growing season) were compared to an ungrazed control between June 1988 and April 1991. Runoff was measured using 1-rn² runoff frames and collection bucket systems. Sediment yields were then determined on samples from the collected runoff. Snowmelt was the dominant source of runoff. Snowmelt runoff was higher from the heavily grazed areas than from the very heavily grazed areas, due to the higher standing vegetation which accumulated snow in the former areas. Sediment yields as a result of snowmelt were generally low in all areas. Only a few summer storms caused runoff. Runoff volumes and sediment yields from summer rainstorms were low, due to low rainfall and to generally dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. The greatest risk of summer runoff, and thus sediment yield, appears to occur in August.     

FLOW DURATION CURVES II: A REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A streamflow duration curve illustrates the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of streamflow. Flow duration curves have a long history in the field of water-resource engineering and have been used to solve problems in water-quality management, hydropower, instream flow methodologies, water-use planning, flood control, and river and reservoir sedimentation, and for scientific comparisons of streamflow characteristics across watersheds. This paper reviews traditional applications and provides extensions to some new applications, including water allocation, wasteload allocation, river and wetland inundation mapping, and the economic selection of a water-resource project.     

青藏高原年日照时数的年代际变化趋势

利用1961~2007年青藏高原68个气象台站日照时数观测资料,通过统计方法分析了近47 a来青藏高原年日照时数的年代际变化趋势,得到以下几点初步认识：青藏高原年日照时数整体上呈现自东南向西北增加的特点,并且其空间变化趋势也存在明显的区域差异。青藏高原东南部、西藏中部和西藏西南部以及青海北部地区年日照时数减少较为明显,高原西部、西藏中东部地区和青海南部年日照时数呈增加趋势;近47 a来青藏高原年日照时数具有明显的年代际变化特征,年日照时数增加区和减少区分别存在12.1和21.1 a左右的时间尺度;增加区在20世纪60年代至80年代年日照时数处于偏多阶段, 90年代至21世纪初日照时数呈明显的减少趋势;减少区则表现为20世纪60年代至70年代年日照时数有所增加, 90年代日照时数开始急剧减少,21世纪初达到最低值。各年代之间年日照时数变化特点同样具有明显的区域差异。