Multi-stand Forest Management under a Climatic Risk: Do Time and Risk Preferences Matter?

We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences. The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest.     

剑麻纤维基多孔炭材料的制备及其吸附氯苯的研究

以剑麻纤维为原料,通过简易的一步炭化活化法制备了一系列多孔炭材料,分别探究了3种温和的金属盐活化剂、活化剂与剑麻纤维的质量比和活化温度对炭材料的氯苯吸附量的影响,并通过BET、SEM、XRD、Raman、FT-IR、元素分析等手段表征其物理化学性质.结果表明,当采用CuCl₂为活化剂、CuCl₂与剑麻纤维的质量比为10∶1及活化温度为800℃时,制备得到的剑麻纤维基多孔炭(PCC)吸附性能最佳,其在氯苯浓度为1560 mg·m^-3时,吸附量达到856 mg·g^-1,而未经CuCl₂活化的炭材料(PC)的氯苯吸附量仅为15 mg·g^-1.氯苯吸附性能的提升主要归因于比表面积、孔容、无序性和表面含氧官能团的增加.此外,采用巨正则系综蒙特卡洛(GCMC)方法模拟氯苯分子在制备的多孔炭材料中的吸附行为,结果表明,该材料中孔径为0.5 nm的孔对氯苯分子的吸附能力最强,且对氯苯吸附起主导作用的为苯环中心和Cl原子与炭材料上连接含氧官能团的H原子之间的静电作用力.     

电子设备缓蚀剂对电子设备防护的应用研究

目的 研究DZ-1电子设备缓蚀剂用于电子设备防护的有效性.方法 参照MIL-PRF-81309G、MIL-L-87177A和Q/AVIC 03018中的试验方法,对自主研制的DZ-1电子设备缓蚀剂的性能进行全面评价.结果 DZ-1电子设备缓蚀剂没有闪点,在运输、储藏及使用过程中非常安全,使用性能良好,很容易去除,能够去...     

压气机叶片用耐冲刷防腐有机涂层的制备及性能研究

目的 提高压气机叶片有机涂层的耐冲刷和防腐性能.方法 以氨基改性环氧树脂为粘接剂,通过加入高硬度Al2O3填料以及其他着色、防锈颜料,并充分分散,制备一种具有耐冲刷防腐功能的有机涂层.通过摆杆硬度测试、磨耗测试、冲刷测试、腐蚀测试及其他力学性能测试,对耐冲刷防腐有机涂层的综合性能进行评价,对比高硬度Al2O3填料含量对...     

交通事故动态分析法在肇事逃逸案件侦查中的研究与实践

针对传统交通事故动态分析法在交通肇事逃逸案件侦查中投入高、效率低、精度差的缺点,笔者在信息主导警务理念的指导下,综合运用逻辑学、系统科学、社会学、心理学、情报科学相关原理,动态分析交通事故现场的痕迹、车辆行驶轨迹、道路交通环境、警情综合信息、驾驶人行为与逃逸心理,以及受害者损伤特征,准确掌握车辆或驾驶人局部特征,从而为侦破交通肇事逃逸案件提供精确的查缉信息,使警务行动实现精确用警、快速反应和精确打击的目标。笔者给出了利用动态分析法侦破交通肇事逃逸案件的流程和步骤;指出提高办案水平,迫切需要加强警务信息和社会信息的有效融合,研发专门系统,强化信息研判。     

COMPARISON OF RESERVOIR LINEAR OPERATION RULES USING LINEAR AND DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical optimization techniques are used to study the operation and design of a single, multi-purpose reservoir system. Optimal monthly release policies are derived for Hoover Reservoir, located in Central Ohio, using chance-constrained linear programming and dynamic programming-regression methodologies. Important characteristics of the former approach are derived, discussed, and graphically illustrated using Hoover Reservoir as a case example. Simulation procedures are used to examine and compare the overall performance of the optimal monthly reservoir release policies derived under the two approaches. Results indicate that, for the mean detention time and the corresponding safe yield target water supply release under existing design of Hoover Reservoir, the dynamic programming policies produce lower average annual losses (as defined by a two-sided quadratic loss function) while achieving at least as high reliability levels when compared to policies derived under the chance-constrained linear programming method. In making this comparison, the reservoir release policies, although not identical, are assumed to be linear. This restricted form of the release policy is necessary to make the chance-constrained programming method mathematically tractable.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.     

基于神经网络的温度预测

室内温度与诸多影响因素之间的非线性、复杂性等关系 ,给建模、预测带来了难度 ,引入了人工神经网络 ;利用人工神经网络的非线性、并行计算和自学习特性进行建模 ,实现了对温度模拟     

喀斯特石山地区社会经济与生态环境可持续发展系统研究:以桂西北为例

本建立了广西西北部喀斯特石山地区可持续发展的系统动力学模型。并用DYNAMO程序预测了未来20年桂西北地区的人口、工业、农业、第三产业，生态环境，土地资源，社会总产值，人均国民收人等的动态变化趋势，结果显示，该地区由于人口，工业资产增加使物质和能源消耗增长太快，而对污染治理的投入又太少，导致桂西北地区的生存环境质量下降，因此应当加大对污染治理的投入力度，改善区域环境质量，这是实现息烽县区域可持续发展的关键，根据区域特点探讨了桂西北喀斯特贫困山区的形成演化，提出了可持续发展的途径。